The upcoming UFC Perth event on May 2 features an anticipated welterweight showdown between Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates. This fight promises an exciting clash, blending technical boxing with the potential for explosive knockouts.
UFC Odds: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Current betting lines show a slight division among oddsmakers and bettors regarding the welterweight matchup between Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates. While some platforms list Prates with a 52.5% implied probability and Della Maddalena at 47.5%, indicating a minimal recent shift in trading, other bookmakers and those frequenting sports betting academies position Della Maddalena as a narrow favorite. These lines typically range from -115 to -120 for Della Maddalena, with Prates at +100 to -105. This represents a tightening from the initial odds, which favored the Australian more significantly, as public money appears to be flowing towards the Brazilian’s power. These adjusted odds suggest a win probability of approximately 53-55% for Della Maddalena, a slight decrease from earlier projections, influenced by Prates’ impressive finishing rate that has attracted sharp betting action.
In the weeks leading up to UFC Perth, the opening odds for Della Maddalena were tighter. However, Prates has seen consistent support from bettors drawn to his formidable knockout power. Notably, eight of his last ten victories have come by way of stoppage, often achieved through devastating leg kicks and precise boxing that effectively wears down opponents.
The winner of this bout is poised to make a significant leap, potentially entering the top three contenders and earning a title eliminator bout by late 2026, possibly against Ian Garry or Michael Morales. Della Maddalena could even ascend to the No. 1 ranking and secure a rematch against champion Islam Makhachev if he delivers a dominant performance. For Prates, a victory would mark his entry into the elite tier of the division.
Conversely, a loss would severely hinder the momentum of either fighter. Della Maddalena, at 29, risks his contender status and could find himself facing gatekeeper-type matchups against fighters like Joaquin Buckley. Prates, on the other hand, might fall to rankings between No. 7 and No. 9, necessitating recovery fights against established names like Colby Covington or Gilbert Burns to re-establish his knockout reputation. While both fighters are likely to remain employed in a deep division, a defeat would delay their championship aspirations by at least a year.
Prates’ path to victory seems clearer by leveraging his striking advantage. His strategy might involve circling Della Maddalena, targeting his lead leg to compromise his base, and looking for a head kick or a counter right hand as Della Maddalena presses forward aggressively.
Jack Della Maddalena, currently ranked as the No. 1 contender, earned his position through a six-fight winning streak in the UFC, which was recently halted. Carlos Prates holds the No. 5 ranking, propelled there by consecutive knockout victories that have elevated him from an unranked striker to a legitimate title contender.
UFC Perth organizers have strategically placed this fight in the main event slot, capitalizing on Della Maddalena’s popularity in Australia and the growing hype surrounding Prates as a dangerous Muay Thai specialist.
