BUFFALO — While a defenseman is widely expected to be the first overall pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, the draft`s defining characteristic might be the strong desire among top-drafting teams with significant needs at center to secure their foundational player.
Erie Otters defenseman Matthew Schaefer arrived at the NHL Scouting Combine in Buffalo early this week as the projected top pick. Although the New York Islanders hold that selection, Schaefer`s confident and likable personality at the combine reinforced the expectation that he will be only the fifth defenseman chosen first overall in the last two decades.
After Schaefer, what comes next?
Defense and center are the most valuable positions in the NHL, and it`s quite possible that, following Schaefer, no other blue-liner will be selected in the top 10.
Instead, we could witness a series of clubs addressing a critical need down the middle. Specifically, the cluster of picks held by Nashville at fifth, Philadelphia at sixth, and Boston at seventh is particularly intriguing, considering some of these teams have faced decades-long needs for a top-tier center.
Now consider some of the names that could be available to these franchises, depending on how the early picks unfold.
If Michael Misa and Caleb Desnoyers — two players we will revisit shortly — are off the board by pick No. 5, that likely means prospects like James Hagens and Anton Frondell will be available when the Predators pick at No. 5.
Hagens often appeared at the top of mock drafts in the fall and early winter before slightly dropping in the rankings. Nevertheless, we are talking about a player frequently compared to Jack Hughes who, despite his average size, consistently plays with intensity.
“I think it’s from growing up on Long Island,” said the 18-year-old, clearly proud of his New York roots. “It’s kind of blue-collar [on Long Island], nothing has ever been given to me, everything has been earned, so I’m glad I have that trait. You need it to be able to last and survive in the NHL. It’s a good trait to have.”
Then there’s Frondell, who likely benefits from the fact that the world is currently watching Aleksander Barkov aim for his second consecutive Stanley Cup with the Florida Panthers. Frondell, a six-foot-one, 198-pound Swede, is often compared to Florida’s captain and openly models his game after Barkov. This 18-year-old, when asked what NHL record he would most like to hold by the end of his career, responded, “Is there a record for most killed penalties?”
Viktor Klingsell, who played with Frondell at the U-18 World Championship in May, described his countryman as the complete package.
“He’s an amazing player,” Klingsell said. “He’s for sure got every tool in his game. He’s got the size, he’s got the puck control, he’s got the off-ice skills.”
Klingsell also chuckled remembering how Frondell enjoys juggling balls used for floorball in Sweden while walking around hotels they’ve stayed in. “He’s such a crazy guy,” Klingsell laughed. “He’s for sure going to be a star in the NHL one day.”
Considering what Hagens and Frondell can offer, it’s easy to envision them fitting well in Nashville and Philly. The Flyers unexpectedly landed winger Matvei Michkov two years ago, but they desperately need a top center to spearhead their rebuild. As for the Predators, it feels like that organization has been seeking a true number one center for its entire 25-year history.
And then there are the Bruins, a team undergoing re-tooling that is still trying to fill the massive void left when legendary franchise centers Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci retired two years ago.
Assuming the highest-rated centers — Desnoyers, Misa, Hagens, and Frondell — are selected before pick No. 7, fast-rising Brady Martin could still be available. The Soo Greyhound isn`t physically imposing, but his six-foot, 178-pound frame is entirely dedicated to competing fiercely.
“What a kid,” said Kris Mallette, who coached Martin at last summer’s Hlinka Gretzky Cup and observed his steady rise up the lineup. “He just doesn’t stop, his motor doesn’t stop and he does have very good individual skill. I think a lot of people are just starting to see [that], but we saw it firsthand. He had the ability to take a guy one-on-one and dance through him and get an opportunity.”
Naturally, what happens in the latter half of the top 10 picks will be heavily influenced by how the first three or four selections unfold. Every year, there’s discussion about where the draft truly becomes unpredictable – that is, which is the highest pick where there isn`t strong consensus on who will be chosen?
This summer, that point really centers on the No. 2 slot, held by the Sharks. While Hagens and, to a lesser extent, Frondell have been mentioned in that range in mocks at various points leading up to the draft, Sportsnet’s Jason Bukala believes there`s a chance both Desnoyers and power winger Porter Martone could be candidates for the top 3. In fact, if Desnoyers and Martone go second and third, that would push Misa — a center who scored 62 goals in 65 games with the OHL’s Saginaw Spirit this year — down to No. 4, where he could be eagerly selected by a Utah team that would be thrilled to eventually pair Misa with Logan Cooley down the middle.
As for Desnoyers, his recent climb in the rankings is attributed to a comprehensive 200-foot game that appears increasingly impressive upon closer inspection. Coupled with a reputation as a strong leader, it’s easy to see how Desnoyers — who recently competed in the Memorial Cup with the Moncton Wildcats and opted out of combine testing due to wrist injuries he battled through in the playoffs — could be an ideal fit behind a top talent like Macklin Celebrini in San Jose or, failing that, even alongside Connor Bedard in Chicago.
“Very mature, very dedicated,” Mallette said of Desnoyers, another player he coached at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup. “He’s a gamer. He’s a player who might not flash — his point total in the Quebec League was obviously very good — but he’s not an overly flashy player; he’s a player who just does a lot of things very well. His competitiveness, his physicality — his ability to finish is very good — but his leadership qualities are great.”
Even extending beyond the top 10, it’s worth considering teams potentially finding a long-term center solution. The Pittsburgh Penguins — picking 11th — built their success and hoisted three banners on the back of having Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin centering their lines for two decades. But as those players near the end of their careers, there’s a significant need for new talent.
What about taking a big swing on a large player like Roger McQueen? The Brandon Wheat King was limited to just 20 games this year due to a back issue and subsequent muscle strain. However, the six-foot-five, 197-pound pivot completed all the physical testing on Saturday in Buffalo and spoke with a wide grin afterward about the relief of being there and telling teams he has been pain-free for about six weeks.
“Just being able to come here and have that back issue [behind] me now, it’s so nice to have that in my past,” he said. “Having that in the past and being able to come here and compete with my buddies is awesome.”
If selecting McQueen — a player who likes to model his game after other large centers like Tage Thompson and Ryan Getzlaf — isn`t Pittsburgh`s choice, perhaps Jake O’Brien is a perfect match. The six-foot-two Brantford Bulldogs center could well be selected in the top 10, but he grew up a Penguins fan and possesses the offensive skill to potentially drive a new generation of Pittsburgh`s attack one day.
“Great player,” Misa said of O’Brien, whom he has played against in the OHL and with on spring hockey teams previously. “One of the best playmakers in the draft, the way he’s able to find other players. It’s pretty impressive.”
This year, perhaps more than usual, it’s genuinely difficult to predict how the draft board will unfold after the first selection. However, when the dust settles in a few weeks, several clubs might emerge with the most optimistic outlook regarding their center position that they`ve had in quite some time.
Making the NCAA Leap
Not surprisingly, the relatively new option for major junior players to transition to NCAA hockey was a popular topic at the combine. For the most part, players expected to go high in the draft — Schaefer, Misa, Desnoyers — were cautious when discussing future plans. It`s easy to state your goal is to play in the NHL next year and that you`re not focused on anything beyond that.
Of course, some players have already publicly committed to the NCAA route. One such player is now-former Erie Otter Malcolm Spence. The tenacious winger confirmed that, predictably, many of the teams he interviewed with in Buffalo wanted to understand more about his decision — made public in mid-May — to join the Michigan Wolverines.
“For sure, they were wondering [what the] decision-making process [was] and why,” he said. “I explained, obviously, a lot has to do with physical attributes. For the NHL, I’m going to have to play at a heavier weight, so for me to go to Michigan [where there is more training time and fewer games], it made more sense.”
