After a dominant 7-2 victory over the Philadelphia Flyers, the Toronto Maple Leafs are now leading the Atlantic Division. While they are tied on points for first place, they hold the advantage due to more regulation/overtime wins, which is the second tiebreaker. This “ROW” lead could be crucial if the standings remain tight.
Beyond the top three teams in the division, it seems unlikely that Ottawa will overtake them, placing them in the first Wild Card spot. However, in a tight race for the second Wild Card, a slight downturn could pull Ottawa back into contention for a higher seed. It`s plausible they could end up in the second Wild Card position.
Currently, projections from Data Driven Hockey estimate the Maple Leafs are most likely to face the Senators in the first round (around 40% probability), followed by the Lightning (about 35%), and then the Panthers (closer to 20%).
Given these probabilities, let`s discuss the best-case scenario for Toronto. Considering their likely first-round opponents are these three teams, which matchup gives them the greatest chance of success? What are the advantages and disadvantages of facing each team?
Let`s explore each potential opponent:
Ottawa Senators
Despite some differing opinions, the Senators are arguably the most desirable first-round opponent for the Leafs among these three teams. The concern about potential embarrassment of losing to Ottawa is less significant than the familiar challenge of facing Florida teams in the playoffs.
Why the Leafs might want to play Ottawa: Inexperience is a key factor. The Senators have fewer players with Stanley Cup-winning experience compared to the Panthers and Lightning, who have recent deep playoff runs. The Senators` roster is also younger on average.
Ottawa`s goalie, Linus Ullmark, has limited playoff experience with a sub-.900 save percentage and a losing record. While capable of strong performances, he can also be inconsistent.
Overall, the Senators are not as offensively potent as the other options, have some defensive vulnerabilities, and the Leafs likely have an edge in top-tier talent. Toronto would be favored in this matchup.
Why it might be risky to play Ottawa: Ullmark`s ability to get hot and steal games is a concern. He has shown this capability recently.
While Ottawa`s overall scoring is lower, they are statistically underperforming their expected goals, suggesting they`ve been unlucky with shooting percentage. They generate more scoring chances than their goal totals suggest and are due for better offensive results. Before a recent slump, Ottawa had a stretch of high-scoring games in early March, and the addition of Dylan Cozens has strengthened their top forward lines.
Defensemen Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot are exceptionally fast skaters, which can exploit a potential weakness for the Leafs, who are not known for their team speed. Sanderson, in particular, could pose challenges.
Finally, the emotional factor is significant. Ottawa has turned their season around and is highly motivated to make the playoffs, especially against their rivals, Toronto. This would be Brady Tkachuk`s first playoff experience, and the team`s energy and emotion would be extremely high. Tkachuk`s intensity can be a major factor in a playoff series. A series against Ottawa would be physically and emotionally demanding.
Final thought: Goaltending will be critical in a series against Ottawa. Their likely high energy and emotional play could lead to both scoring opportunities and defensive mistakes, placing significant pressure on both teams` goalies to make crucial saves.
