The commencement of the Cooper Flagg era in the NBA is now official. As widely anticipated, the highly-regarded rookie forward from Duke was selected first overall by the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night. Many experts consider him one of the top prospects to enter the league in the new millennium.
The key question for fantasy managers is: What kind of statistics can we anticipate from him during his debut season?
This analysis will first examine how he fits within the Mavericks` current roster composition. Following that, we`ll conduct a brief historical comparison to previous players who share some similar attributes and skill sets. Finally, we will discuss where Cooper Flagg is likely to be drafted in fantasy leagues this upcoming fall.
Evaluating Flagg`s Fit with the Mavericks
The Mavericks present a significant opportunity for a rookie forward, perhaps more substantial than typically found on a playoff-contending team. With Luka Doncic having been traded and Kyrie Irving sidelined due to a torn ACL, the current Mavericks roster features strong big men (such as Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford, and P.J. Washington) and capable shooters (like Klay Thompson, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Max Christie). However, the team currently lacks primary offensive playmakers and consistent wing scoring.
Consequently, Flagg might be required to play a crucial role in the Mavericks` offensive strategy from the outset. He should have the chance to earn significant playing time and handle the ball frequently from the very beginning of the season. Combining this clear opportunity with Flagg`s undeniable talent – which ESPN NBA analyst Bobby Marks noted was sufficient for NBA productivity even at age 16 – Flagg is positioned to make an immediate, impactful contribution.
More information regarding Flagg`s role will become clear as the summer progresses, particularly after free agency shapes the final Mavericks roster around him. We will also likely see Flagg`s first professional game action during the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas.
All these upcoming details will inform our formal statistical projections for Flagg`s rookie year, which are scheduled for release in the coming months.
Nevertheless, based on his performance during his college career, we already have a solid understanding of what to expect from Flagg. These expectations point towards him being an immediate impact player for fantasy basketball.
Comparing Flagg to Previous Duke Standouts
Similarities to Grant Hill
Much like Grant Hill, Flagg enters the NBA as a large wing player possessing excellent physical dimensions and a versatile skill set capable of contributing across various statistical categories on both offense and defense. While Hill was a more seasoned prospect, having completed four years at Duke and joining the league as a 22-year-old rookie, Flagg`s statistics from his freshman season at Duke are quite comparable to Hill`s numbers in his senior year. This suggests that despite being significantly younger at 18, Flagg appears similarly prepared for the transition to the NBA game.
Similarities to Jayson Tatum
Jayson Tatum represents another large wing player whose size is akin to a combo forward, yet his playing style is primarily perimeter-oriented. Tatum`s game leans more towards scoring as a shooter and is less centered on natural playmaking compared to Hill. Flagg, in many respects, blends the stylistic elements of these two Duke predecessors. Although not as natural a point forward as Hill, Flagg demonstrates superior creation and distribution abilities compared to Jayson Tatum when he entered the NBA. Similarly, while Flagg will need to develop his shooting to reach the level Tatum currently possesses, Flagg is a more polished shooter coming out of Duke than either Hill or Tatum were.
Below is a statistical comparison of each player`s final season at Duke:
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | 3P | FG% | FT% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hill | 17.4 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 46.0 | 69.4 | 37.9 |
| Tatum | 16.8 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 45.2 | 85.4 | 35.0 |
| Flagg | 19.2 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 48.5 | 82.8 | 38.9 |
This subsequent table displays the rookie season statistics for Grant Hill and Jayson Tatum, alongside projections for Flagg`s rookie season. These projections are based on the assumption that Flagg`s transition from college to the professional level will be statistically similar to that of his predecessors:
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | 3P | FG% | FT% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hill | 19.9 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 48.0 | 72.6 | 25.0 |
| Tatum | 13.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 48.1 | 84.4 | 43.3 |
| Flagg | 19.0 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 51.1 | 84.0 | 36.4 |
Flagg`s Projected Fantasy Draft Position
The projected 3-point total for Flagg mentioned above has been adjusted, considering that it`s highly improbable his volume of 3-point attempts would decrease upon joining the NBA in today`s game. In fact, this projection for his 3-point rate might still be somewhat conservative. However, on the whole, these projected numbers effectively illustrate the potential production fantasy managers might expect from Flagg during his rookie campaign.
These performance forecasts support the notion of him being a top-40 selection in fantasy drafts as a first-year player.
In fantasy points leagues, averaging these numbers would position Flagg around the 28th overall rank. For players eligible at the small forward position, this placement would fall between Jaylen Brown and Franz Wagner.
In category-based leagues, Flagg`s anticipated combination of well-rounded production across various stats, coupled with favorable shooting percentages and relatively few turnovers, is strong enough to potentially place him within the top 25. Among small forwards, this could position him between Kevin Durant (ranked 16th) and Jalen Williams (ranked 30th).
Based on these projections, it is reasonable to expect Flagg to be selected within the initial four rounds of fantasy basketball drafts this season.
