UFC Vegas 106 Predictions

Gilbert Burns is facing a pivotal moment in his career. Four years after his unsuccessful bid for the UFC welterweight title, the 38-year-old veteran is currently on the first three-fight losing streak of his career. This difficult run is threatened to continue this Saturday as Burns prepares to face the undefeated Michael Morales in the UFC Vegas 106 main event.

This presents a significant opportunity for Morales. With a perfect 17-0 record (5-0 in the UFC), Morales looks like a potential future champion. He has consistently shown the ability to defeat more experienced fighters, with recent wins over Neil Magny, Jake Matthews, and Max Griffin. A victory over Burns is widely expected and should propel him into the top 10 rankings, though the experienced “Durinho” should never be underestimated.

The main card also features other notable matchups: Paul Craig faces Rodolfo Bellato in a fight where Craig`s UFC future may be on the line; Sodiq Yusuff and Mairon Santos compete in a lightweight contest; Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursulton Ruziboev are set for a clash expected to produce a highlight-reel finish; and the main card is opened by surging featherweights Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa.

Main Card Predictions

Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales

To be clear, Gilbert Burns possesses the skills to win this fight. However, he will need a lot of factors to align perfectly to hand Michael Morales his first professional defeat.

On the ground, Burns is highly capable. If he can get the fight to the mat early, he can drain Morales` energy and nullify the size advantage. This is a five-round bout, so securing early rounds is crucial for Burns. Morales` cardio over 25 minutes is relatively untested, making it vital for Burns to push the pace into the later rounds.

Burns still carries significant power in his hands, offering a potential path to victory in striking exchanges. However, relying solely on striking is likely not his optimal strategy.

Morales is fundamentally sound with intelligent stand-up, displaying impressive footwork and well-timed feints to set up dynamic attacks. His athleticism allows him to quickly recover from mistakes, including potential takedowns. Just when it seems he`s in trouble, Morales often explodes out of danger and reverses the situation. Once he builds momentum, he becomes incredibly difficult to stop.

While Burns can still compete with top fighters, he appears to have lost a step. The 13-year age difference and the accumulated wear and tear from fights and training heavily favor Morales. Had this fight happened a few years ago, it might have been a coin toss. As it stands now, Morales is a significant favorite for good reason.

Prediction: Morales by Decision.

Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato

Rodolfo Bellato is an exciting fighter to watch. The aggressive Brazilian`s first two UFC bouts have been chaotic and entertaining, hinting at potential top-15 talent, though his tendency to absorb considerable damage is a concern. He might need a more composed approach against Paul Craig.

Craig is well aware of the high stakes in this fight. A win secures his spot in the octagon, while a loss could mean the end of his UFC run.

His uninspired performance against Bo Nickal didn`t help his standing, especially given Nickal`s subsequent challenges. Craig has also been a historically slow starter, which is the last thing he wants against an opponent like Bellato who is likely to begin with high intensity.

Bellato is expected to come out aggressively as usual, and a typical Craig comeback seems improbable this time. I anticipate a powerful finish from “Trator”.

Prediction: Bellato by Knockout.

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos

Mairon Santos is taking a challenging path after winning The Ultimate Fighter 32. “The Legend” is making a quick turnaround after fighting in March and is moving up a division to face Sodiq Yusuff, an opponent with significantly more UFC experience. Perhaps this is a self-imposed challenge after a debatable decision win over Francis Marshall, but he needs to be cautious or his promising career could be hindered.

Yusuff`s move up to 155 pounds is apparently permanent, which increases my concern for Santos. This suggests Yusuff has properly prepared his body for the lightweight division. He has always possessed strong striking skills, though knockouts have been elusive. Removing a difficult weight cut could unleash his potential. With more energy, Yusuff can aggressively unleash his hands early in the fight.

I might be underestimating Santos, but I`ve seen Yusuff cause problems for too many capable fighters to pick against him here. I`m not putting my faith in a recent TUF winner in this instance.

Prediction: Yusuff by Decision.

Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

This fight has the potential to be a messy, finish-oriented encounter. Both Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursulton Ruziboev are known for seeking stoppages, despite having some decisions on their records. Tonight, they are expected to meet in the center and trade heavy shots.

This kind of fight suits Stoltzfus well, who recently scored a surprising knockout against Marc-Andre Barriault in November when Barriault unwisely chose to slug it out against the fence. Stoltzfus capitalized moments later with a first-round knockout.

With Ruziboev likely coming straight forward, opportunities will arise for Stoltzfus to potentially steal the fight. However, Ruziboev`s accuracy and intensity should ultimately prevail. He`s likely to hurt Stoltzfus on the feet before finishing the fight with ground-and-pound or a submission on the ground.

Prediction: Ruziboev by Stoppage.

Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa

This is excellent matchmaking, pairing two veteran featherweights on quiet winning streaks against each other.

Julian Erosa is the more recognizable fighter to many fans, having been competing for 15 years and earning a reputation as a tough opponent. Whether standing or on the ground, the long and versatile Erosa can pose a difficult challenge for any opponent.

Melquizael Costa has been actively making up for lost time since his UFC debut in 2023. He`s currently riding a three-fight win streak and aims for his fourth win in 11 months if he can defeat Erosa.

Costa`s fights are rarely pretty, but his ability to bounce back from adversity is one of his best qualities. The same cannot always be said for Erosa, who occasionally starts slowly and can struggle in the first round when not at his best. On the flip side, Erosa also has several first-round finishes to his name.

I lean towards Erosa in this matchup, especially if the fight goes beyond the initial five minutes. I believe his extensive high-level experience will carry him to victory. “Juicy J” should take this on points after three competitive rounds.

Prediction: Erosa by Decision.

Preliminary Fight Results

• Matheus Camilo def. Gabe Green
• Thiago Moises def. Jared Gordon
• Yadier del Valle def. Connor Matthews
• Tainara Lisboa def. Luana Santos
• Denise Gomes def. Elise Reed
• Hyun Sung Park def. Carlos Hernandez
• Tecia Pennington def. Luana Pinheiro