UFC Mexico Fight Predictions

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10 months ago 102

Brandon Moreno is on a journey to reclaim his position and get another shot at the UFC flyweight title.

As a two-time former champion, Moreno is a high-profile opponent, and Steve Erceg is eager to challenge him in the UFC Mexico main event this Saturday. Moreno is still considered a top flyweight contender, but recent fights haven`t gone his way.

He suffered a split decision loss to Alexandre Pantoja, which ended his second title reign, in a very close fight. Following that, another split decision defeat against Brandon Royval temporarily halted his chances of a rematch with Pantoja. Although Moreno won his last fight against Amir Albazi, it was a bout where the stakes were higher for him to lose than to gain.

Now, Moreno is again in a position to defend his ranking against a rising contender, Erceg, who also seeks a title opportunity. Erceg is coming off a knockout loss to Kai Kara-France and might be even more motivated and determined than Moreno.

Flyweight fights at this level are always exciting, but this Saturday`s event has added pressure, with a passionate Mexican crowd ready to support Moreno in his quest for victory.

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Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg

Despite his record in Mexico City being 0-2-1, and the predictor`s record for UFC Fight Night main events in 2025 being 0-7, both are looking to turn things around.

Stylistically, Moreno is known for his high-speed and technical pressure fighting. He`s expected to bring this aggressive style to the fight, especially with the crowd behind him. Steve Erceg is anticipated to use his boxing skills and footwork to avoid being overwhelmed and maintain distance.

Erceg`s grappling could be a key factor, and exchanges between the two could lead to dynamic scrambles. Moreno`s proven ground defense makes him a favorite in such situations. This fight has the potential to become a battle of attrition as it progresses.

Moreno is predicted to win by catching Erceg and finishing with ground-and-pound in the later rounds.

Pick: Moreno

Drew Dober vs. Manuel Torres

Drew Dober, veteran of 25 UFC fights, has established himself as an exciting, high-action fighter who consistently approaches the top 15 lightweight rankings. The question is whether it’s time for a new generation of entertaining lightweights to take the spotlight.

Manuel Torres could be that fighter. Known for his fan-friendly style, Torres utilizes his reach effectively, attacking from various angles with precision and capitalizing on openings.

This matchup promises knockout opportunities for both fighters. Dober, despite technical shortcomings, possesses significant power, capable of finishing the fight with one punch. The fight likely depends on who lands the decisive blow first.

Torres, being younger and possibly fresher, is favored to land first. While Dober might pose an early threat, Torres is expected to find his timing and secure a finish.

Pick: Torres

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer

Kelvin Gastelum remains at middleweight, which is positive news for his fans. Now, he faces the challenge of Joe Pyfer, a fighter known for his finishing abilities.

Assessing Pyfer`s true skill level is challenging. His only UFC loss is against veteran Jack Hermansson, which isn`t a setback. He has shown he`s above the middle tier of middleweights and is looking to prove he`s a future contender.

Pyfer has size and athleticism advantages. He could potentially use wrestling to control Gastelum, aiming for a submission as Gastelum tires. While Gastelum is a capable wrestler, his takedown defense has shown vulnerabilities.

However, engaging in a striking battle with Gastelum could be problematic for Pyfer. Gastelum has a strong chin, and Pyfer might fatigue quickly if he tries to overpower Gastelum, especially at Mexico City`s elevation. A suspect gas tank could be Pyfer’s weakness.

Gastelum`s strategy should be to extend the fight, wear Pyfer down, and capitalize in the later rounds. If Pyfer isn`t prepared for a long fight, he could struggle.

Gastelum is predicted to win by decision.

Pick: Gastelum

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Vince Morales

Raul Rosas Jr., now 20 years old, continues his promising MMA career. He has won nine of his first 10 fights, including his last three. His next opponent is Vince Morales, a seasoned and resilient veteran.

This fight is expected to favor the still-developing Rosas. Rosas’ speed, athleticism, and wrestling skills are typically difficult for fighters like Morales. While Morales has the ability to challenge Rosas, Rosas is expected to use his attributes to control and wear down Morales.

A late finish is possible, but Rosas is more likely to work for a three-round decision victory.

Pick: Rosas Jr.

Saimon Oliveira vs. David Martinez

Saimon Oliveira returns after over two years away from fighting, and his cardio will be tested by the high-paced David Martinez.

Martinez, known for his agility and angles, will likely invite Oliveira to chase him, using defense and counters before attacking. His pace is expected to increase as the fight goes on, provided it lasts beyond the first round.

Oliveira needs to utilize a mixed martial arts approach to disrupt Martinez`s rhythm. However, the effectiveness of Oliveira`s wrestling against Martinez, who keeps distance well, is questionable. Oliveira may expend significant energy without securing takedowns.

Oliveira`s urgency might lead to mistakes, allowing Martinez to exploit his strategy and secure a knockout in the first round.

Pick: Martinez

Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas

Ronaldo Rodriguez is an explosive fighter, ready to attack with unpredictable wrestling and striking. However, he sometimes starts slowly, which has caused him issues in past UFC fights.

These defensive lapses could be costly against Kevin Borjas, a talented fighter who has faced tough competition. Borjas is likely to dictate the pace if Rodriguez allows it, using his striking in open space.

The prediction is uncertain, as Rodriguez has the grappling to win, but he also absorbs strikes. This toughness might not be sustainable, and Borjas could be the one to expose this vulnerability.

Borjas is predicted to win by knockout.