Leon Edwards didn’t get a direct rematch for the championship, and now he really needs to win to stay in the title conversation.
It’s tough for a fighter who lost his title after nine years without defeat, but that’s the reality. Edwards had to work hard to get a title fight with Kamaru Usman, and it seems the UFC isn’t rushing to put him back in the title picture against Belal Muhammad or anyone else. For some reason, Edwards hasn’t been heavily promoted, and a loss at UFC London could put him in a difficult position.
Sean Brady is in a better situation. If he beats Edwards, it would be a great three-fight winning streak. After losing to Muhammad, Brady bounced back with wins over Kelvin Gastelum and Gilbert Burns, both former title challengers. Defeating a former UFC champion would make him a serious contender, even if Shavkat Rakhmonov is likely next in line for a title shot when healthy.
The co-main event is similar, with former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz facing rising contender Carlos Ulberg. Again, a veteran is fighting to stay relevant, while the younger fighter can make a strong case for a title shot with a win. Ulberg could even get closer to a title shot than anyone else competing on Saturday with an impressive victory.
Leon Edwards is surprisingly a slight underdog against Sean Brady. Why is that?
Is Edwards considered past his prime after nearly 30 fights in 14 years? Did his loss to Belal Muhammad really hurt his reputation? Or do people just think Sean Brady is very good?
Brady is a good pick on his own merits. He was a highly-rated prospect before joining the UFC and has mostly lived up to the hype, except for the Muhammad fight. In his recent wins, he’s shown his skills: great wrestling, good striking, and athleticism for the welterweight division.
It’s assumed that after seeing Muhammad out-wrestle Edwards, people expect Brady to do the same. But Edwards isn’t usually controlled on the ground as easily as Muhammad made it look. And it’s unlikely Brady can keep up that level of control for a full 25 minutes.
Edwards will do enough damage striking and use some wrestling to win by decision.
Pick: Edwards
Jan Blachowicz is much more experienced than Carlos Ulberg. He’s fought tougher opponents, is more well-rounded, and still has power. He’s the better fighter overall.
However, he’s also 42 years old.
That’s eight years older than Ulberg, and even in heavier weight classes, age is a factor. Blachowicz is also coming off shoulder surgery, which isn’t ideal.
Still,
Despite these concerns, I’m picking Blachowicz. Ulberg is an exciting choice, but the skill difference is too big. Blachowicz recently had competitive fights with Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira. If that version of Blachowicz shows up, he should defeat Ulberg.
Blachowicz by decision.
Pick: Blachowicz
This next fight reminds me of a Simpsons joke.
Kevin Holland is back at welterweight. That’s good!
He’s fighting a grappler. That’s bad.
His opponent, Gunnar Nelson, is 36 and hasn’t fought much recently. That’s good!
Nelson has won his last two fights and usually only loses to top welterweights. That’s bad.
Holland is fighting again soon after his last bout. That might be bad?
Even though dropping to welterweight is the right move for Holland, I don’t think he’s improved enough to be a contender again. Nelson isn’t a top fighter anymore, but he’s still too good on the ground for Holland. Nelson wins by submission in the second round.
Pick: Nelson
Molly McCann was expected to easily win this fight. She was originally set to fight Istela Nunes, who has a poor UFC record, perfect for McCann to beat in front of her home fans. But Nunes is out, and Alexia Thainara is stepping in, posing different challenges.
Thainara’s game is simple. Her striking is improving, and she likes to throw punches and kicks. Her takedowns are basic, just tackling opponents. But on the ground, she’s dangerous.
This is a concern for McCann. She’s good in striking fights, and Thainara might engage in that, but McCann struggles with grappling, which Thainara will exploit. It’s unlikely McCann can keep the fight standing or get back to her feet if Thainara takes her down.
Thainara is a popular pick this week, and maybe she’s being overrated for her UFC debut, but I’m picking her to beat McCann by submission.
Pick: Thainara
The next fight could be Fight of the Night between two exciting lightweights.
Chris Duncan tends to wait for his opponents to come to him. He’s tough and has good timing, allowing him to draw opponents into his attacks. This fight is perfect because Jordan Vucenic will be aggressive from the start.
The question is whether Duncan can find openings for his offense. Vucenic strikes and has good submissions, giving him options to stop Duncan. Duncan will land some shots, but probably not enough to overcome Vucenic’s variety and volume.
This should be an exciting three-round fight that Vucenic wins by decision.
Pick: Vucenic
Speaking of Fight of the Night, the opener between Nathaniel Wood and Morgan Charriere is great.
Wood is always in exciting fights. It’s unlikely he can just use his grappling to control Charriere, so he’ll probably have to rely on his improving striking. Wood is slightly faster, while Charriere has more power.
Charriere has become a fighter to watch in the featherweight division. He was expected to be a contender after his Cage Warriors success, but he’s also become known for exciting fights in the UFC, earning bonuses in his first three appearances. He’s willing to take damage to land bigger shots on Wood.
Another main card fight going to decision, with Charriere narrowly winning.
Pick: Charriere
Preliminaries
Jai Herbert def. Chris Padilla
Lone’er Kavanagh def. Felipe dos Santos
Mick Parkin def. Marcin Tybura (10)
Christian Leroy Duncan def. Andrey Pulyaev
Shauna Bannon def. Puja Tomar
Caolan Loughran def. Nathan Fletcher
Guram Kutateladze def. Kaue Fernandes
