Ian Machado Garry has consistently set his sights on the top echelon of the welterweight division. Now, he faces the challenge of defending his position against one of the division`s most formidable emerging talents.
Carlos Prates enters the main event of UFC Kansas City on Saturday night riding a wave of momentum with four consecutive victories, all by knockout, and an impressive five straight $50,000 bonuses. He looks to extend these streaks against Garry, who currently holds the No. 6 spot in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings. This represents a significant step up in competition for Prates, following highlight-reel performances against seasoned veterans Neil Magny and Li Jingliang.
Attention within the division is currently focused on the upcoming championship bout at UFC 315 on May 10, where champion Belal Muhammad is set to defend his title against Jack Della Maddalena. Further complicating the contender landscape is the potential move of UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev to the 170-pound division, particularly if Della Maddalena were to emerge victorious. This scenario, alongside other credible contenders like Sean Brady, Shavkat Rakhmonov (currently sidelined by injury), and the winner of the recently announced UFC Atlanta main event between former champion Kamaru Usman and Joaquin Buckley, creates a complex picture for future title challengers.
However, one certainty is that any fighter who delivers an impressive performance in Saturday`s headliner will position themselves favorably for a title shot, regardless of how the rest of the division unfolds over the coming months.
Beyond the main event, the main card features several intriguing matchups: Former light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith makes what is billed as his final octagon appearance against Zhang Mingyang; Giga Chikadze aims to solidify his precarious hold on a top featherweight ranking against David Onama; and Michel Pereira seeks to rebound from a disappointing loss when he meets Abus Magomedov in a middleweight clash, among others.
Event Details:
What: UFC Kansas City
Where: T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo.
When: Saturday, April 26. The eight-fight preliminary card is scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card starting at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+.
While perhaps not the most glamorous aspect of combat sports, the main event on Saturday hinges significantly on distance control.
Ian Machado Garry prides himself on being a highly technical striker, a claim he has consistently validated in his performances. He excels at avoiding incoming strikes, a crucial skill when facing Carlos Prates, whose knockout power can only be described as “insane.” Prates possesses a left hand as dangerous as any in recent memory, and it won`t take many clean connections to potentially put Garry away.
Therefore, the onus is on Garry to vary his approach and minimize the time spent exchanging blows at close range with Prates. Prates is not only effective from distance but is also adept at slipping inside and setting up his powerful strikes (did we mention his left hand?). Garry is certainly capable of winning a striking battle, but choosing to stay on the feet for the duration is a risky gamble.
Garry should actively pursue grappling opportunities when they arise. This is a five-round fight, and Garry is expected to hold the advantage in cardio, having gone the full 25 minutes twice in his career. Prates, by contrast, has no experience fighting beyond the third round.
In a contest that turns into a war of attrition (assuming Garry avoids an early stoppage), Garry is likely to wear Prates down and secure a submission victory in the fourth round.
Pick: Garry
Anthony Smith, regardless of what the future holds, we commend you.
Never labeled a world-beater or a blue-chip prospect from the outset, Smith defied expectations to establish himself as a legitimate light heavyweight contender in the UFC. He even fought for the title against Jon Jones and was just one controversial moment away from potentially winning the belt via disqualification. It`s worth noting that Smith was already 27 fights into his professional career when he transitioned from Strikeforce and had amassed 36 bouts before starting his second UFC run, which has now spanned nearly a decade.
Full disclosure: I will always have a particular appreciation for Smith, as he was the first fighter I ever interviewed as part of the MMA Fighting team. At that time, he was still competing at middleweight and was barely on the radar of casual fans. Witnessing his rise to headlining status and becoming a consistent presence on UFC broadcasts has been truly rewarding. So, hats off to you, “Lionheart.”
With that said, I am picking against you in this fight.
Win or lose, Smith is concluding his career on his own terms, and that deserves respect. However, the more likely outcome favors the younger, less battle-worn Zhang. While a victory for Smith wouldn`t be entirely shocking – considering it wasn`t long ago that Zhang was facing significantly less challenging opponents, and this might be too big a leap for the 26-year-old – I anticipate Zhang`s raw talent will carry him through, likely resulting in a first-round knockout.
Pick: Zhang
I imagine the primary question many have about this matchup is: “Is Giga Chikadze still ranked?”
Indeed, it has been some time since Chikadze demonstrated form truly indicative of a top 15 fighter (his standout knockout of Edson Barboza was in August 2021!). However, his only losses in the UFC are to top contenders Arnold Allen and Calvin Kattar, which is far from a mark of shame. One could argue that few featherweights outside the elite have managed to break through the crowded middle tier to supplant him in the rankings. I might be mistaken, but that`s my assessment.
Regardless, the truth of his current standing will be revealed tonight as he faces the dangerous David Onama. We are still waiting for Onama to fully piece together his potential, but he is starting to define his identity as a fighter: a fast competitor with continuously improving boxing skills and solid takedown defense. He will need to exert considerable effort to overcome Chikadze`s more polished striking technique. Fortunately for Onama, his output is not an issue, and he possesses numerous tools that could trouble Chikadze.
Even though I am predicting a decision victory for Onama, I fully expect this contest to be closely contested.
Pick: Onama
We gained a clearer understanding of Michel Pereira`s limitations in his fight against Anthony Hernandez. Pereira has never been renowned for exceptional cardio, and “Fluffy” exploited this weakness effectively, making it apparent that Pereira may not be ideally suited for extended, high-paced MMA contests.
This deficiency could surface against Abus Magomedov, who is comfortable pushing a fight to the later rounds or the distance. Magomedov does possess several defensive vulnerabilities that Pereira is well-equipped to exploit, meaning Magomedov must adopt a more conservative approach if he wishes to avoid ending up on the wrong end of a highlight-reel finish.
With all due respect to Magomedov, he appears to be precisely the type of opponent against whom Pereira is built to shine. He doesn`t typically push a relentless pace, is hittable, and seems a step slower in standup exchanges. I anticipate Pereira delivering a classic performance here, securing the win and keeping his albeit dim title aspirations alive.
Pick: Pereira
This clash between experienced welterweights has “split decision” written all over it.
There is very little separating Randy Brown and Nicolas Dalby, two veterans who have seen it all and embody the characteristics of a well-rounded modern MMA fighter. Striking? They can do that. Wrestling? They can do that. Grappling? They can do that. Cardio? They possess it. This is excellent matchmaking from a technical perspective, although it may not necessarily guarantee explosive action, as both fighters are so complete that they are likely to neutralize each other`s attempts to pull ahead on the scorecards at every turn.
Brown`s creativity and size advantage should be enough to edge him ahead in this matchup, although Dalby will undoubtedly make it a difficult and uncomfortable fight. Look for Brown to maintain a slight lead through three rounds, landing just enough scoring blows to sway a couple of judges and get back into the win column.
Pick: Brown
The opening bout of our main card has the potential for a finish, either through Ikram Aliskerov showcasing his knockout power or Andre Muniz demonstrating his exceptional grappling prowess. Conversely, this fight could very easily devolve into a classic, slow-paced “middleweighty” affair.
Simply envision a scenario where Aliskerov remains hesitant due to the threat of a takedown, while Muniz spends the fight constantly feinting and changing levels, fearful of Aliskerov`s knockout punch. You can picture it, can`t you? Isn`t that just thrilling?
Having (hopefully) averted that outcome with a jinx, I am predicting Aliskerov to land significant strikes (punches, kicks, and possibly knees) on Muniz. Aliskerov moves remarkably well for a middleweight and generates powerful shots quickly. While it`s unfortunate to point this out, Muniz has not competed in over 500 days and turned 35 this past February, factors that are likely to exacerbate any athletic disadvantages he may have had previously.
I foresee Aliskerov winning by first-round knockout.
Pick: Aliskerov
Preliminary Card Predictions:
Matt Schnell def. Jimmy Flick
Evan Elder def. Gauge Young
Chris Gutierrez def. John Castaneda
Da’Mon Blackshear def. Alatengheili
Malcolm Wellmaker def. Cameron Saaiman
Jaqueline Amorim def. Polyana Viana
Timmy Cuamba def. Roberto Romero
Joselyne Edwards def. Chelsea Chandler
