Belal Muhammad’s initial defense of his welterweight championship was expected five months ago. Surprisingly, the delay ended up creating uncertainty and potential shifts across three different weight categories.
At UFC 310, Muhammad was scheduled to defend his title against the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov, but a foot infection forced Muhammad to withdraw. A lot has evolved since then. Several legitimate contenders have emerged at 170 pounds, including Jack Della Maddalena, who is now Muhammad`s opponent at UFC 315. Additionally, speculation is building around Muhammad`s friend, the lightweight champion Islam Makhachev.
If Muhammad is defeated on Saturday, it might clear a path for Makhachev to move up to 170 pounds to face Della Maddalena. However, if that scenario occurs, what happens with Ilia Topuria? He recently relinquished his featherweight title with the expectation of potentially challenging for a belt at 155 pounds. If Muhammad wins, does that make a Makhachev vs. Topuria matchup the obvious next step (especially since UFC 317 still needs a main event), or will Topuria still need to defeat a top lightweight contender to earn his opportunity?
UFC 315 might not be the most talked-about event of the year, but it holds the potential for significant storylines. MMA Fighting`s Alexander K. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew recently discussed the potential outcomes from the UFC`s return to Montreal, which also features a flyweight bout that could set up a superfight between champion Valentina Shevchenko and Zhang Weili.
Does a Belal Muhammad win help or hurt the UFC`s plans?
Lee: It`s widely known that I`m someone who advocates for chaos, and that means Jack Della Maddalena must secure the win. With all due respect to “JDM,” this opportunity wasn`t initially meant for him. While he definitely possesses the credentials, Shavkat Rakhmonov had clearly been the intended No. 1 challenger for some time, and if not for injuries keeping him sidelined, he`d be the one with the chance to completely shake up the division. As things stand, our hopes for a massive shift rest on Della Maddalena`s shoulders. I`m keen to see him be the first domino to fall, allowing Islam Makhachev to move up, Ilia Topuria to challenge someone else for a vacant lightweight title, and eventually, Makhachev could potentially return to lightweight in the future to finally resolve the rivalry with Topuria.
Heck: Both potential outcomes are interesting, but I`m going to say Muhammad retains his title. Of course, I would be incredibly fascinated by the prospect of Islam Makhachev moving up to welterweight to attempt to win a second belt – and hoping he would vacate the lightweight title. However, Muhammad is substantially underestimated, and I`m curious to see how his title reign might unfold if he defeats JDM, then faces Rakhmonov, followed by perhaps Ian Machado Garry, and explores other possibilities based on the events of the next few months. Furthermore, there are still a large number of compelling lightweight title fights available for Makhachev, and I`m still hoping that Arman Tsarukyan gets his shot at some point.
Meshew: The “best” outcome for the UFC is incredibly unlikely to happen, but since that`s the question, here it is: Belal Muhammad defeats Jack Della Maddalena, steps up to the microphone, and immediately vacates his title to move up to the middleweight division (185 pounds). Muhammad is undoubtedly an excellent fighter, but we don`t need to pretend he`s a champion the UFC is particularly eager to promote. His fights tend not to be overly exciting, and despite his attempts to be captivating on the mic, it doesn`t quite resonate. Having Muhammad as champion is something the UFC can tolerate, but they will never be genuinely excited about it. So, if he decides to willingly give up the belt, that`s clearly positive news for the UFC, who could then position Islam Makhachev in a welterweight title fight, but instead of against JDM, it would be against Shavkat Rakhmonov. That matchup is arguably as good as the promotion could hope for. And look, I know Dricus du Plessis mentions fighting Khamzat Chimaev later this year, but you never know. Muhammad has been wanting to fight Chimaev for ages, so if the UFC wanted to attach an interim title to that fight and schedule it for International Fight Week, I suspect fans would eventually accept the idea.
Who is the most obvious next flyweight title challenger after UFC 315?
Meshew: There`s a solid case for Natalia Silva if she manages to defeat Alexa Grasso, but I honestly don`t see that scenario playing out. Silva doesn`t have the required star power yet, and a subtle line of contenders is forming in the flyweight division. My prediction is that the next flyweight title challenger will be the winner of the Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber fight scheduled for the end of this month. Firstly, it`s a main event, which is typically a better indicator of being in the title picture, and secondly, both fighters are bigger names than Silva currently is. Blanchfield was heavily promoted as the next big thing and is still only 25 years old. Barber also positioned herself as the next big thing and has finally developed into a genuinely good fighter. I believe the UFC will favor the name recognition and hype surrounding either of these women compared to Silva, who is more of a favorite among dedicated fans.
Lee: Alexa Grasso tetralogy! I`m only kidding. Similar to my response regarding JDM, I want to see movement and progression within these divisions. This means Natalia Silva needs to deliver an impressive performance against the former champion and solidify her position as the unquestioned No. 1 contender. Silva has a legitimate chance not only to be a fresh opponent for Shevchenko but she might also possess the skills to defeat her – or at the very least, catch Shevchenko in a potential decline while Silva is approaching her peak. After that, I still see plenty of compelling matchups for Shevchenko – especially if Jasmine Jasudavicius defeats Jessica Andrade on Saturday. I always prefer champions to defend their own division rather than pursuing (or inviting) fighters from other weight classes.
Heck: It absolutely *should* be “Natty Ice” [Natalia Silva] if she secures a win over Alexa Grasso, but regardless of the outcome, Zhang Weili will likely be next because time is running out to make that superfight happen. The women`s divisions in the UFC are competitive, but they are in serious need of an exciting spark, and booking a fight between Shevchenko and Weili would definitely provide one. Silva would probably have to wait for her opportunity to fight for the belt, but if she defeats Grasso – and I believe she will – a fight against either Shevchenko or Weili would be a significant event for her.
What other fighter on the UFC 315 card has the most to gain with an impressive performance?
Heck: I already mentioned her in the previous question, it`s “Natty Ice” [Natalia Silva]. Silva is incredibly entertaining whenever she competes, plus she has a captivating personality that could genuinely endear her to the fanbase. If she beats Grasso, it won`t be a boring victory, and she`ll deliver a post-fight interview that will generate excitement about her. She`s an easy choice for me.
Meshew: I`m extremely upset. The clear answer was Benoit Saint Denis and my guy, Joel Alvarez, but unfortunately, it looks like that fight is no longer happening. If Reiner de Ridder hadn`t just thoroughly dominated Bo Nickal, there would be profound sadness in the Meshew household right now. But with Saint Denis and Alvarez no longer an option, I will revert to another very characteristic pick: the GOAT, Jose Aldo. Aldo is facing Aiemann Zahabi in one of the most bizarre matchmaking decisions in recent MMA history, but that doesn`t diminish anything. Aldo is undeniably one of the top five greatest fighters of all time, and every time he steps back into the octagon, he only reinforces his extraordinary greatness. Can you name another MMA fighter who is still defeating elite competition a decade past their prime and doing so in a tougher weight class? I`ll wait. Aldo is going to perform and once again prove his greatness, and when he does, the UFC is going to shock everyone. Dana White will appear at the post-fight press conference and acknowledge that they have mishandled this final chapter of his career with strange and terrible matchups, and also unfairly denied him a bantamweight title shot by giving it to a compromised T.J. Dillashaw for some inexplicable reason. And so, in recognition of their repeated and egregious errors, and the fact that Aldo gave the current champion Merab Dvalishvili the toughest fight of his current winning streak, the promotion will remove the (possibly injured) Sean O`Malley from the main event of UFC 316 and replace him with Jose Aldo. Justice prevails!
Lee: Jasmine Jasudavicius, this is your moment. The fighter from St. Catharines is a late bloomer, but she has certainly made up for lost time with a series of impressive performances, including a dominant win over recent bantamweight title challenger Mayra Bueno Silva. It`s unclear how much more potential there is for growth for the 36-year-old Jasudavicius, but she is making all the correct career moves so far, including securing a fight against former UFC champion and two-division threat Jessica Andrade. A strong performance on Saturday elevates Jasudavicius from being an interesting contender to a legitimate title challenger, something Canada has been missing for a while.
