Following UFC 315, the welterweight division has a new champion. Jack Della Maddalena secured the title on Saturday with a dominant unanimous decision victory over Belal Muhammad, marking the most significant win of his career.
What lies ahead for “JDM,” and how enduring might his reign be? What are the repercussions for the flyweight title picture after Valentina Shevchenko`s performance against Manon Fiorot? And is the legendary Jose Aldo truly stepping away from competition? Let`s delve into this week`s questions.
How do you foresee Jack Della Maddalena’s tenure as champion unfolding?
His success will likely depend heavily on his initial title defense, which appears highly uncertain at this moment. Islam Makhachev is slated to be JDM`s first challenger, and picking a winner in that matchup is incredibly difficult. My gut feeling slightly favors Makhachev, primarily because he is widely regarded as the best fighter in the world, a factor that carries significant weight. Furthermore, I view Makhachev as a more complete fighter than Muhammad, and since JDM had a competitive fight with Muhammad, theoretically, Makhachev might perform even better. However, on the other hand, JDM is still showing remarkable improvement with each bout, displayed substantially enhanced takedown defense compared to his previous fights, and possesses a skillset that could trouble Makhachev. Therefore, I`m not placing a confident bet on Makhachev. The challenge for JDM is that even if he defeats Makhachev, there`s no easy path ahead. The welterweight division is brimming with incredible emerging talents, meaning Della Maddalena would potentially face a gauntlet including Shavkat Rakhmonov, Ian Machado Garry, Sean Brady, or Joaquin Buckley, with prospects like Michael Morales and Carlos Prates also rising through the ranks. The 170-pound landscape is a truly dangerous environment right now, and while JDM might navigate it successfully for a while, I wouldn`t predict anyone clearing out that level of competition entirely.
Could you elaborate on the divisional impact at welterweight (170 lbs) and lightweight (155 lbs) resulting from Jack Della Maddalena`s win? What`s next for fighters like Shavkat, Brady, Belal, and Buckley while Islam gets his title shot? And is it accurate that the 155-pound belt might not be defended until potentially 2026?
It`s actually not a mess at all; the situation has become quite clear, though perhaps not optimally for all involved. Islam Makhachev will challenge JDM for the welterweight championship later this year, possibly when the UFC returns to Australia in the autumn or holds an event in Abu Dhabi. With Makhachev vacating the lightweight title, Charles Oliveira and Ilia Topuria are scheduled to fight for the undisputed 155-pound belt at UFC 317. I anticipate Arman Tsarukyan will likely face Justin Gaethje sometime soon thereafter for the next opportunity to challenge the winner of that lightweight clash. As for the welterweight division, Garry and Brady seem likely to be matched against each other next. The winner of the upcoming bout between Joaquin Buckley and Kamaru Usman will probably face Belal Muhammad. The only real question mark is Shavkat Rakhmonov, but my best guess is that Shavkat will attend the Islam vs. JDM fight cage-side and face the winner early next year.
Of course, there`s always the potential for the UFC to embrace chaos. If Ilia Topuria defeats Charles Oliveira, and simultaneously Islam Makhachev triumphs over Jack Della Maddalena, I`m certain the demand for a potential super fight between Makhachev and Topuria would reach unprecedented levels. And if the UFC secures a new major broadcast deal, what better way to make a huge splash than by scheduling Makhachev vs. Topuria for the welterweight title sometime next year? While I`m not predicting this will happen, I`m suggesting it`s now a possibility. And while such a scenario would be incredibly unfair to numerous deserving contenders, something tells me the majority of fans might not be overly concerned about that.
What is the path forward for Alexa Grasso? Did her championship victory turn out to be a fluke? Also, does `Silva` have a genuine chance of dethroning Shevchenko, and is she the future of the 125-pound division?
Oh, Alexa Grasso definitely had a difficult outcome recently. She now finds herself in a career dilemma, and it seems her title-winning achievement might regrettably be viewed as an anomaly. It`s a tough development for Grasso. To start, Grasso`s win over Shevchenko wasn`t a complete fluke, but it now seems evident that it wasn`t the most probable outcome in a series of fights. If they competed 10 times, Shevchenko would likely win more than half. However, Grasso was prepared and capitalized on the opportunity on the specific night that the title was on the line, finding a way to win. That`s commendable. This also serves to illustrate my frequently stated point that defending a championship repeatedly is the most challenging task in MMA. Because in every title defense, you are facing an opponent who is bringing their absolute peak performance, having dedicated their entire career to preparing for that specific fight. One single mistake, one slip-up, and everything can be lost. As for where Grasso goes from here, options are limited. She likely can`t comfortably make the 115-pound strawweight limit and would be significantly undersized at 135 pounds, meaning she`s essentially anchored to the flyweight division. However, there is now a wave of promising new fighters emerging, which unfortunately suggests she might become a stepping stone for future title challengers.
Regarding `Silva` (likely referring to Taila Santos or another contender mentioned previously in discussion with Shevchenko), yes, she is probably a key figure for the future of the flyweight division. She recently looked outstanding. While I won`t go so far as to say she would definitely defeat Shevchenko if they were to fight next, she certainly possesses the potential to do so. I believe `Silva` and Erin Blanchfield are destined to have a series of flyweight title fights against each other in the years to come. However, for the immediate future, the next major women`s fight appears quite clearly to be Valentina Shevchenko versus Zhang Weili. It`s a clash between two of the top female fighters of all time and absolutely needs to happen next.
Do you honestly believe Jose Aldo is retiring for good?
I do not think so. After losing a highly controversial decision to Aiemann Zahabi recently, Jose Aldo commented that it was likely his final appearance in the octagon. The UFC Hall of Famer and featherweight legend later reiterated this sentiment, stating it “may have been my last time inside the octagon.” For me, that phrasing tells us a lot. If he were truly committed to retirement, the word “may” would not be part of his statement.
While this is certainly armchair psychology, I suspect Aldo was simply feeling frustrated this week. It`s a point I`ve made several times, but it`s hard to overstate how poorly the UFC has managed this final stage of his career. Granted, booking him against Jonathan Martinez in Rio had some logic, but then matching Aldo against Mario Bautista and Zahabi felt completely pointless. These aren`t major names, which undoubtedly makes it less motivating to prepare for them. His candid admission that his weight cut failed partly because he couldn`t overcome it mentally, to me, reads like a fighter who couldn`t fully invest himself in competing against a relatively unknown opponent. Why would he? These fights aren`t building his legacy; they`re just against some random guys. It`s hard for me to believe he wouldn`t be much more focused and dedicated if the fight was a high-profile, legacy-enhancing matchup. And, adding insult to injury, his last two defeats were due to questionable decisions.
I think that after he takes some time to reflect, Aldo will come to realize that he isn`t done with fighting itself; he`s just done with participating in meaningless, low-stakes bouts. But if the UFC approaches Jose in a few months and proposes, “We`re going to Rio this fall, and we want you against Patricio Pitbull—are you interested?” I strongly suspect Aldo will change his tune. At least, I sincerely hope that`s the case.
