Ilia Topuria is positioned as a strong betting favorite heading into his announced fight for the vacant UFC Lightweight Championship against former titleholder Charles Oliveira.
UFC CEO Dana White recently confirmed that this highly anticipated matchup will serve as the main event for UFC 317 on June 28 in Las Vegas. The lightweight title became available after current champion Islam Makhachev revealed plans to move up and challenge Jack Della Maddalena for the welterweight title later this year.
According to initial odds released by FanDuel, Topuria has opened as a considerable -400 favorite to claim the vacant belt. Charles Oliveira, meanwhile, is listed as the underdog at +285.
These odds translate to an approximately 80 percent probability of Topuria winning, based on implied odds. A wager of $100 on Topuria would result in a total return of $125 ($25 profit), while the same $100 bet on Oliveira would yield a significant return of $385 ($285 profit).
Topuria recently vacated his featherweight championship, which he successfully defended once by knocking out Max Holloway at UFC 308 in October. Prior to that, “El Matador” captured the title with a dominant knockout victory over long-reigning champion Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 298 just eight months earlier. Topuria is now aiming to capture a second divisional title in what will be only his ninth appearance inside the Octagon.
Charles Oliveira will look to become a two-time lightweight champion. “Du Bronx” first won the title by stopping Michael Chandler at UFC 262 in May 2021, followed by a successful defense against Dustin Poirier at UFC 269 in December 2021. Oliveira was later stripped of the title after missing weight before his scheduled defense against Justin Gaethje (though he still defeated Gaethje). He then competed for the vacant belt against Islam Makhachev at UFC 280 but was finished in that bout.
Since the loss to Makhachev, Oliveira has compiled a 2-1 record, securing another win over Michael Chandler and a submission victory against Beneil Dariush, with his sole loss in this period coming via decision to Arman Tsarukyan.
