The financial landscape of the NBA continues its seemingly relentless climb. Just recently, Oklahoma City Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander inked a supermax extension projected to pay him a staggering $79 million in its final year. While an immense sum by any standard, this figure brings him tantalizingly close to a benchmark once considered unthinkable: earning a million dollars for every game played.
This isn`t merely about one player`s impressive paycheck. It signifies a league-wide acceleration in compensation for its elite talent, pushing boundaries established even by legends like baseball pitcher Nolan Ryan, whose $1 million per year contract in 1979 was a national headline. How is the NBA reaching these heights, and who is poised to cross this historic $1 million per game line?
Fuelling the Financial Ascent
Several interconnected factors are driving this surge at the top end of NBA salaries. Chief among them are the `designated veteran extension,` more commonly known as the supermax, introduced in the 2017 collective bargaining agreement. This mechanism allows qualifying long-tenured players to sign extensions starting at 35% of the salary cap, a significant bump from previous maximums.
This increased percentage is then applied to a rapidly expanding pie – the salary cap itself. Over the past decade, the cap has grown far beyond general economic inflation, a phenomenon some dub `basketball inflation.` The true catalyst, however, is the league`s colossal new television rights deal, valued at $76 billion over 11 years. This represents a nearly 2.6-fold increase in national TV revenue per season compared to the previous agreement. While measures like `cap smoothing` will temper the immediate impact by limiting annual increases (to a maximum of 10%), repeated significant jumps will compound over time, pushing the cap – and thus max salaries – into unprecedented territory.
Consider the trajectory: A supermax starting salary, which was just under $35 million in 2017, is projected to cross $60 million in the coming years and potentially breach $70 million shortly thereafter. This steepening curve means the final years of these multi-year extensions will reach figures previously unimaginable.
The Race to the Million-Dollar Game
Reaching the $1 million per game mark, based on an 82-game regular season ($82 million annually), appears imminent. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander`s $79 million future salary is close, but the milestone player will likely come from draft classes eligible for the supermax *after* his.
While the 2019 draft class hasn`t produced obvious supermax candidates based on recent performance, attention turns to the 2020 and 2021 cohorts. Anthony Edwards, from the 2020 class, with consecutive All-NBA selections, is firmly on a supermax trajectory. Should he qualify and sign an extension around 2027, projections suggest he could potentially earn over $82 million per season well before the end of his contract. Tyrese Haliburton from the same class was also a candidate, although a recent injury casts uncertainty on his immediate supermax eligibility.
The 2021 draft class also offers strong possibilities. Players like Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley, who made their first All-NBA teams last season, along with promising talents such as Scottie Barnes, Alperen Sengun, and Franz Wagner, are among those who could qualify for supermax deals later this decade. Given the projected continued rise of the salary cap, it`s highly probable that whoever among this group earns the supermax will see their annual salary climb past the $82 million mark at some point in their contract.
And the trend doesn`t stop there. Younger stars drafted in 2022 and 2023, such as Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero, and the highly anticipated Victor Wembanyama, are entering the league as the salary cap is already significantly higher. Their future max contracts, whether supermax extensions or new deals after their rookie scales expire, could easily reach or exceed $100 million per year.
Beyond Basketball: A Look at Other Sports
While $1 million per NBA game is a first for the sport, other leagues have already seen players surpass this threshold, albeit with different structures. Elite MLB pitchers, based on a typical ~32 starts per season, have earned well over $1 million per outing for years. Top NFL quarterbacks, playing a much shorter 17-game schedule, routinely command salaries translating to $3 million or more per game – a figure reflecting their singular impact in a league where every contest is magnified.
Globally, soccer players recruited by funds like the Saudi Pro League have set astronomical benchmarks, with figures like Cristiano Ronaldo rumored to earn upwards of $200 million annually.
However, the NBA offers a unique combination: high per-game pay coupled with a high volume of games (82 regular season). While an NFL star or MLB pitcher might earn more per appearance, their total annual compensation often falls short of the NBA`s supermax elite. This is evident in the concentration of top salaries; recent data shows significantly more NBA players with contracts valued over $50 million per year compared to the NFL, NHL, and MLB combined.
The Ripple Effect: Money, Load Management, and Value
As these numbers grow, several interesting dynamics could emerge. One immediate area of scrutiny might be load management. When a player is earning over a million dollars for a night`s work, public and media tolerance for them sitting out “rest days” could understandably wear thin. The optics alone invite commentary: “You`re making *how* much and not even playing?”
The sheer magnitude of the money could also subtly shift player priorities. While the max contract remains a significant status symbol and financial goal, does the difference between $75 million and $85 million per year genuinely impact a player`s quality of life or generational wealth once they hit certain levels? Perhaps not significantly. This could make players slightly more inclined to test free agency, even if it means signing for slightly less than the absolute supermax a retaining team could offer, prioritizing team fit, market, or championship pursuit.
It might also fuel the perennial debate about whether athletes are “overpaid.” This discussion often lacks context regarding the massive revenue these players generate. Which leads to the final point…
The Ultimate Bargain?
Here`s where the irony truly lies: For the truly elite, franchise-altering NBA superstars, even a $1 million per game salary might still represent an undervaluation of their economic impact. Analytical models estimate the value a star player adds in terms of wins, and when multiplied by the per-win cost in the league (including salaries and luxury taxes), the figure often dwarfs their contractual pay.
Beyond on-court production, consider the immense value these players add through ticket sales, merchandise, global branding, and significant increases in franchise valuation. When LeBron James returned to Cleveland in 2014, estimates suggested he instantly boosted the Cavaliers` value by over $100 million. That was a decade ago, with a lower salary cap and less revenue.
Historic figures like Michael Jordan, before max contracts were strictly enforced, famously earned salaries exceeding the entire team`s cap because his value was undeniable. The same math applied today suggests the league`s top players could be worth well over $150 million per year – nearly double the upcoming $1 million per game threshold.
So, while the arrival of the NBA`s first $1 million per game player will be a significant financial milestone, a marker of the league`s immense growth and the escalating value of its top talent, it`s worth remembering: for the handful of players who truly drive the league`s economic engine, even that staggering figure might still be, in a strange twist of financial fate, a bargain.
