David J., a professional sports bettor, spends his nights monitoring live box scores on his computer instead of watching the games themselves. His confidence in his betting advantage allows him to remain calm regardless of the game outcomes. He sometimes engages in online poker while awaiting the results of his sports bets. However, December 2, 2024, was an exception.
A situation potentially damaging to his ego and finances unfolded in Minnesota. The Los Angeles Lakers were trailing the Timberwolves by 15 points in the fourth quarter. More concerning for David J., LeBron James was having one of his lowest-scoring games in recent years. In his dimly lit Iowa basement, David J. decided to watch the game.
Earlier in the season, he noticed FanDuel sportsbook was offering odds on James scoring at least 10 points per game. He thought, “It`s LeBron James; he`s bound to score 10.” He started betting on this proposition, accepting the expensive odds. In December, seeking amusement, he began publicly announcing his large wagers for minimal potential profit if James reached 10 points.
On December 1st, a screenshot of his bet – $10,125 at -1800 odds to win $562 net if James scored double digits against the Utah Jazz – went viral, reaching 3.3 million views on X (formerly Twitter). He boasted to friends and taunted X commenters who questioned his high-risk, low-reward strategy. He gloated when his bet succeeded in the second quarter.
“I was laughing at everyone calling me an idiot, which I might well be,” admitted David J., who preferred to be identified only by his first name and last initial. “I don’t care if it sounds silly. Getting millions of views was cool. It was fun.”
The following night, Monday, December 2nd, was far more stressful. James, who had consistently scored at least 10 points in every game since 2007, had only seven points with 12 minutes remaining in a Lakers blowout loss to the Timberwolves. An early exit for James and the end of his record streak seemed possible. David J. grew anxious, worrying about his $9,000 bet and potential social media ridicule if James fans blamed him for jinxing the streak.
“It would have been incredibly embarrassing. I imagined LeBron`s fan accounts attacking me if the bet failed and the streak ended. I was incredibly nervous,” he chuckled. “It was fun, but I was scared.”
With 11:24 left, James made a layup, and two minutes later, a free throw, reaching 10 points before leaving the game with seven minutes remaining and the Lakers down by 25. David J. sighed in relief. He avoided social media backlash and won $562.50, enough for new pants.
The LeBron 10-point betting market has surged in popularity over the last three months
This high-stakes version of “The Price is Right,” centered around an NBA legend, regularly sees six-figure betting action, often pitting professional bettors against each other on opposite sides of the “yes/no” proposition.
FanDuel stopped offering game-by-game wagering on this prop in mid-December, instead offering odds on James continuing his streak for the rest of the regular season. According to FanDuel, James was a -6000 favorite to score at least 10 points in the Lakers` remaining games before a groin injury on March 8 against the Boston Celtics sidelined him. James scored 22 points before exiting that game in the third quarter.
With traditional sportsbooks ceasing game-by-game streak bets, wagering shifted to peer-to-peer sites like ProphetX. Here, customers use virtual currency to trade sports outcomes among themselves, rather than betting against a sportsbook.
“We`ve seen six figures in Prophet Cash traded most nights, involving hundreds or even thousands of customers, from major players on the `Yes` side at -5000 odds, to smaller players on the `No` side at long odds [typically 50-1 or higher],” ProphetX co-founder Jake Benzaquen told ESPN.
David J. claims to be up approximately $42,000 betting “yes” on James this season. His largest single-game risk was on Christmas Day, wagering $74,275 at odds as low as -7000 on James scoring at least 10 points against the Golden State Warriors.
“HE MIGHT CASH FIRST QUARTER,” he posted during the game. “YOU GUYS ARE SO STUPID.”
He won a net $1,250 early in the second quarter when James surpassed 10 points with a 3-pointer.
The other side: Betting against LeBron
Chris D., a hedge fund analyst and experienced bettor in his mid-20s, has taken the opposite side of David J.`s bets. He believes the streak`s hype has inflated the odds and has bet against James scoring 10 points in several games this season.
“I`ve lost over $10,000 on it,” said Chris D., who also requested anonymity beyond his first name and initial.
He argues there`s value in betting against the streak when odds reach 65-1 or higher. He estimates the true probability of James scoring under 10 points in a game is about 2%, or 50-1. He used AI to analyze historical NBA injury rates, considered James` age (40) and durability, then focused on assessing how much James values maintaining the streak.
“This is where I differ most from others,” Chris D. explained. “I think LeBron wants the streak to continue, but he already holds the record. I don`t think it`s as important to him now as people assume.”
“I`m not a LeBron hater,” he added. “For me, it`s about the price.”
David J. disagrees, convinced James is highly motivated to maintain the streak. He believes the real odds of James scoring under 10 points are less than 1%, closer to 120-1. For context, James has scored fewer than 10 points in only eight of 1,550 regular-season games, or 0.52% of the time.
Both bettors agree their wagers essentially hinge on the possibility of James getting injured early in a game. On March 20, 2021, James sprained his ankle early in the second quarter against the Atlanta Hawks. He had seven points but, despite the injury, stayed in for one more offensive play, making a 3-pointer to reach 10 points before exiting. He missed the subsequent 17 games due to the ankle injury.
James returned from his groin injury on Saturday in a loss to the Chicago Bulls, scoring 17 points, securing another win for David J.
“If he gets to eight points, he`ll reach 10,” David J. stated. “He’ll get a basket.” David J. has upgraded his betting setup since those December nights in Iowa. He now bets from Arizona. He notes that liquidity in the James 10-point prop market has significantly increased since his social media posts, but so have the odds.
“You can still bet significantly most game days,” he said. “Just at higher prices.”
Even with odds climbing to -7000, requiring a $7,000 risk to win $100, David J. believes it`s worthwhile and plans to continue backing James heavily, undeterred by critics.
“It’s good to be on the -7000 side,” he concluded. “Even if it’s a bad bet, there’s a good chance I get to gloat at those who initially mocked me.”
