While the Golden State Warriors secured a crucial Game 1 victory on the road against the Minnesota Timberwolves in their second-round playoff series, claiming home-court advantage, the win came at a significant cost. Star guard Stephen Curry left the game with a hamstring injury and was diagnosed the following day with a Grade 1 strain.
This diagnosis means the Warriors expect to be without Curry for at least the next week, which includes missing a minimum of three games in the current series. The team will need to find alternative ways to replicate the shooting success they experienced in Game 1, even after Curry`s departure, if they hope to advance.
Let`s examine how Golden State plans to navigate Curry`s absence starting with Game 2 and consider how quickly he might need to return to play to give the Warriors a chance at reaching the conference finals for the first time since their 2022 championship run, where Curry earned Finals MVP honors.
Evaluating Golden State`s Shooting Performance in Game 1
Remarkably, after Curry exited the game in the first half with the Warriors leading by 10 points, the team actually managed to extend their lead to as much as 23 points before Minnesota mounted a late fourth-quarter comeback. This was partly fueled by surprisingly effective shooting.
Even without the league`s most prolific shooter, Golden State converted 5 of 9 attempts from beyond the arc in a decisive third quarter. Buddy Hield contributed three of these, continuing a strong shooting streak. Draymond Green also stepped up, sinking four 3-pointers – his highest total in a playoff game since 2017 – with two coming immediately after Curry`s injury.
Conversely, the Timberwolves struggled significantly with their shooting, a trend that continued from their previous series. Minnesota missed their first 15 three-point attempts in the first half and 16 overall before Naz Reid finally connected in the third quarter. They finished the game hitting just 5 of 29 threes (17%), marking their second-worst percentage of the entire season.
However, this dramatic shooting disparity from Game 1 is unlikely to persist. Historical data shows very little correlation between 3-point percentages in the first two games of a playoff series over the past decade.
Golden State outscored Minnesota by 39 points from three-point range in Game 1. If you were to neutralize that difference, the Timberwolves would be clear favorites in the series, especially with Curry sidelined.
Strategies for Golden State Without Curry
Scoring efficiently has historically been a challenge for the Warriors when Curry is not on the court, a pattern observed even during their dominant stretch from 2015 to 2019. During the recent regular season, lineups without Curry ranked near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency metrics.
Filling Curry`s role will require contributions from multiple players. Point guard duties may fall more heavily on Brandin Podziemski, who often served as Curry`s backup. Other players will need to take on increased scoring and playmaking responsibilities to compensate for Curry`s absence.
Coach Steve Kerr faced the challenge of adjusting his rotation in Game 1. While regular contributors Moses Moody and Quinten Post reportedly struggled, Curry`s injury opened up opportunities for others. Jonathan Kuminga played valuable minutes, contributing points, while Pat Spencer provided an unexpected spark with scoring and steals after seeing minimal action in the previous series.
Injury`s Impact on Series Outlook
Typically, a lower seed like the Warriors winning Game 1 on the road would give them a significant advantage in the series. However, Curry`s injury has dramatically shifted the landscape. Minnesota is now favored to win the series, even more so than before Game 1 began. Their current odds imply roughly a 65% probability of winning the series.
Considering Curry`s absence along with the common trend of teams bouncing back after losing Game 1 at home, Minnesota is heavily favored in Game 2. They are also expected to be favorites in Games 3 and 4 when the series shifts to Golden State, albeit likely by a smaller margin.
Beyond the immediate time Curry will miss, another key concern for the Warriors is his performance level upon returning. If he attempts to come back too quickly, his mobility and effectiveness could be compromised.
A relevant example is James Harden`s return from a more severe Grade 2 hamstring strain in the 2021 playoffs. Rushing back after a teammate`s injury, Harden was visibly limited and struggled significantly, impacting his team`s performance in crucial games.
The risk of reinjury is also a factor with hamstring strains. Any additional wins the Warriors can secure while Curry is recovering would provide valuable time, potentially allowing him to return closer to 100% health. Regardless, Curry`s injury has fundamentally altered the context of the Warriors` impressive Game 1 victory and the overall outlook for the series.
