As the 2024-25 NBA playoffs commence, teams embark on the two-month journey towards the Finals. A crucial question emerges: which teams truly possess the necessary attributes for this demanding challenge?
Certainly, every team reaching this stage demonstrates strengths. However, the postseason format is specifically designed to expose a roster`s inherent flaws. Each playoff team carries statistical vulnerabilities – some more pronounced than others – that could potentially impede a deep playoff run.
To pinpoint these potential weaknesses, an analysis was conducted, evaluating every team relative to the league average across key regular-season metrics. These included pace, shooting frequencies and percentages, turnovers, the impact of star players, and playoff experience. The research then focused on categories that have historically shown the strongest correlation with reaching the Finals in the modern NBA era (since the 2012-13 season, coinciding with the rise of three-point shooting). This research was then applied to the current playoff field, identifying teams whose primary weaknesses are amplified by their significance in playoff competition.
The result is a classification of teams into tiers, based on how detrimental their most significant statistical deficiency might be to their championship hopes.
Let`s explore the findings!
Big Problems?
These four teams exhibit significant weaknesses in statistics that are highly predictive of playoff success. These issues could seriously hinder a deep postseason run.
Orlando Magic
Stat category: 3-point percentage (31.8%, 30th)
Why it matters: Three-point accuracy is a critical predictor of reaching the Finals in today`s NBA, where teams set a league record this season with 42.2% of their field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc, hitting over 40% for the first time in history. Teams like the Magic, who ranked 18th in three-point attempt frequency and finished last in the league at 31.8% accuracy from downtown, appear disconnected from this dominant trend in successful basketball. Neither of their leading scorers, Paolo Banchero nor Franz Wagner, possess a strong outside shot (both were significantly below average from three), and their most frequent deep shooters, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Tristan Da Silva, also shot below the league average. Remarkably, none of Orlando`s top 10 players in minutes played during the regular season shot above league average from three.
Saving grace? Opponent block rate (8.7%, 10th): The Magic are effective at getting to the basket and finishing, making them tough to block at the rim. This can be a valuable asset in playoff series against dominant shot-blocking big men.
Houston Rockets
Stat category: 2-point percentage (51.8%, 27th)
Why it matters: While three-point shooting is emphasized, performance inside the arc holds significant weight. Analysis of NBA playoff data over the last decade and a half reveals that an offense`s two-point field goal percentage is arguably even more predictive of making the Finals than three-point percentage. This presents a challenge for the Rockets, who are not a strong shooting team overall. They were below average in both three-point accuracy and frequency and finished among the worst teams in the NBA for two-point shooting. Three of their top five scorers (Jalen Green, Fred VanVleet, and Dillon Brooks) shot 48% or less from inside the arc. Their league-leading offensive rebounding rate helps mitigate this, but teams heavily reliant on offensive boards haven`t had a strong track record of reaching the Finals recently.
Saving grace? Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of best player (Amen Thompson at 8.8, 8th): This metric highlights the disproportionate influence of star players in the playoffs. Although Thompson doesn`t have the high usage rate of many top stars, his performance makes him one of the most impactful two-way players in the playoff field.
Denver Nuggets
Stat category: 3-point attempt rate (35.6% of FGA, 30th)
Why it matters: Unlike Orlando, the Nuggets are a good three-point shooting team, hitting 37.6% which ranked fifth this season. However, their offensive strategy, largely established under former coach Michael Malone, prioritized getting shots inside or earning free throws. This approach is effective, particularly with Nikola Jokić initiating much of their offense. Yet, only one of their top seven players by minutes (Michael Porter Jr.) and two of their top nine took threes at a frequency greater than the league average. Three-point attempts serve as an option but aren`t a primary focus. In recent postseasons, successful contenders have consistently incorporated a substantial volume of three-pointers into their shot profiles. Teams above average in three-point attempt rate have tended to advance further, even when controlling for their accuracy. The trend didn`t change under new coach David Adelman, as their three-point attempt rate in the final three games was slightly lower than under Malone.
Saving grace? WAR of their best player (Jokić at 17.9, 1st): Having a player of Jokić`s caliber, coming off one of his best seasons even by his MVP standards, is often enough to compensate for most, if not all, team weaknesses.
Los Angeles Lakers
Stat category: Team free throw rate (27.1 FTAs per 100 FGA, 1st)
Why it matters: This statistic falls into a seemingly positive category – excelling at drawing fouls – which has historically been a disadvantage for teams in the playoffs. Looking at postseason data, this makes sense. Teams that heavily rely on free throws for scoring can thrive during the regular season when more fouls are called. However, as officiating tends to tighten in the playoffs (free throw attempts per 100 field goal attempts have decreased in the last two postseasons), this strength can transform into a vulnerability. These Lakers are a prominent example of this trend, as their highest-usage players by a significant margin – Luka Dončić, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves – all draw fouls at an above-average rate, with Dončić and Reaves being among the league`s most frequent foul-drawers.
Saving grace? Previous playoff experience (2183.8 minutes per player, weighted by 2024-25 minutes, 2nd): A consistent lesson from the NBA playoffs is the value of prior experience. Only the Boston Celtics` roster boasts more collective playoff minutes than the Lakers.
Moderate Concerns
These statistical red flags are less severe but still carry risk, particularly against strong playoff opponents or when game officiating is inconsistent. They are not necessarily fatal flaws but warrant attention.
Golden State Warriors
Stat category: 2-point percentage (52.8%, 23rd)
Why it matters: While not as concerning as Houston`s interior shooting struggles, Golden State`s two-point percentage places them in the moderate risk category. The Warriors are not particularly efficient finishers inside the arc and were one of the worst mid-range shooting teams this regular season. While mid-range shots are not a large part of their strategy, having more reliable conversion rates on interior shots would be beneficial for a team that ranked 15th in offensive efficiency. Neither Stephen Curry nor Jimmy Butler III shot at a league-average rate on two-pointers this season; in fact, none of the Warriors` top nine players in minutes played had a two-point percentage at or above the NBA average.
Saving grace? Previous playoff experience (1960.6 minutes per player, weighted by 2024-25 minutes, 3rd): Similar to the Lakers, the Warriors possess significant prior postseason experience on their roster. This asset was further boosted by the midseason acquisition of Butler, a two-time NBA finalist.
Milwaukee Bucks
Stat category: Free throw attempt rate (26.8 FTA per 100 FGA, 3rd)
Why it matters: As previously discussed, teams overly reliant on free throws can struggle in the playoffs when fewer fouls are called. The Bucks notably contribute to this trend in the data, largely driven by Giannis Antetokounmpo, who ranked third in free throw rate this season and consistently makes the Bucks one of the league`s teams that draw the most fouls. While Antetokounmpo`s free throw percentage has sometimes been a postseason concern, his *rate* of getting to the line also tends to decrease relative to the league average in the playoffs. The same pattern holds for his teammate Damian Lillard. Their collective ability to draw fouls was the primary engine behind Milwaukee`s high regular-season free throw attempt rate.
Saving grace? WAR of best player (Antetokounmpo at 12.5, 3rd): Despite potential free throw fluctuations, the 2021 NBA champion is such a dominant force that his capability to lead the Bucks deep into the playoffs cannot be overlooked.
Detroit Pistons
Stat category: Opponent FT rate (27.6 FTA per 100 FGA, 27th)
Why it matters: While teams that *rely* on drawing fouls may underperform in the playoffs, the opposite appears true on defense: teams that *commit* fouls and send opponents to the line frequently tend to reach the Finals significantly less often than teams that are more disciplined defensively. One possible explanation is that slower, more half-court-oriented playoff games make every possession more crucial. Giving away easy points at the free throw line becomes more damaging, and teams may have more control over their own fouling rate than their ability to draw fouls on offense. The Pistons sent opponents to the free throw line frequently this season. Although rim protection is important for a team that blocks many shots, players like Isaiah Stewart, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren were among the league`s most frequent foulers.
Saving grace? Two-point percentage (55.0%, 16th): The Pistons receive credit here despite ranking in the middle of the pack because of the predictive weight of this stat for Finals teams. The same trio of Pistons players mentioned for their fouls also posted strong two-point percentages this season.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Stat category: Opponent FT rate (27.2 FTA per 100 FGA, 26th)
Why it matters: The Thunder`s most apparent vulnerability – their youth and limited playoff experience – has improved since last year. This places Oklahoma City in a situation similar to Detroit regarding foul frequency. OKC was one of the league`s most active defensive teams, leading in steals per 100 possessions (10.3) and ranking second in blocks per 100 (5.7), even with Chet Holmgren missing a significant number of games. Fouls are undoubtedly a consequence of their aggressive, disruption-oriented defense, contributing to their excellent defensive metrics elsewhere. However, if one must identify a weakness for a team that won 68 games and posted a net rating (+12.8) second only to the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls in the post-merger era, this is it.
Saving grace? WAR of best player (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 17.8, 2nd): Regardless of how they are ranked, Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić were clearly the league`s top players, and SGA is the likely MVP winner. Players of this caliber reach the Finals at a disproportionately high rate.
Memphis Grizzlies
Stat category: Opponent FT rate (26.7 FTA per 100 FGA, 25th)
Why it matters: The analysis of foul-prone teams concludes with the Grizzlies, who, similar to the Thunder, ranked high in block and steal rates on defense, contributing to a top-10 defensive unit. Generating disruption from players like Zach Edey, Scotty Pippen Jr., and Jaren Jackson Jr. often comes with the cost of sending opponents to the free throw line. Nevertheless, the Grizzlies fit the profile of a team whose defensive tendencies might not be fully conducive to a sustained playoff run.
Saving grace? Two-point percentage (55.6%, 9th): Memphis is a solid shooting team inside the arc. Eight of their top 13 players by minutes converted two-pointers at or above the league average, with the remaining players all within 5% of average.
New York Knicks
Stat category: 3-point attempt rate (38.2% of FGA, 28th)
Why it matters: Like Denver, the Knicks are effective three-point shooters when they attempt them, hitting 36.9% during the regular season (eighth best). However, three-point shooting is not a major component of the shot profiles for most of their heavily used players, with Miles McBride being an exception (taking 57% of his shots from outside). Many Knicks players focus on scoring inside, whether through Karl-Anthony Towns` interior skills and finishing or Jalen Brunson`s ability to attack the basket off the dribble. However, opponents have shown an ability to diagnose and counter New York`s primary offensive actions, which can become a particular problem in a seven-game series.
Saving grace? Two-point percentage (55.8%, 8th): The positive aspect of the Knicks` reduced reliance on the three-pointer is their efficiency in converting two-point attempts, doing so at the league`s fourth-highest rate per 100 possessions. Josh Hart made nearly 62% of his two-pointers, an outstanding rate for a versatile forward.
LA Clippers
Stat category: 3-point attempt rate (38.7% of FGA, 25th)
Why it matters: It`s somewhat surprising that a team led in scoring by James Harden is among the least reliant teams on three-pointers. The Clippers exhibited a varied distribution of shots among their rotation players, with some taking more threes than average (Harden, Norman Powell, Kris Dunn) and others taking significantly fewer, if any (Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac, Derrick Jones Jr.). Only Nicolas Batum attempted threes at a rate substantially higher than a 50-50 mix of twos and threes (Batum took 85% of his shots from three). The Clippers may have the capability to increase their three-point volume if needed, but it remains a potential area of concern.
Saving grace? Previous playoff experience (1820.7 minutes per player, weighted by 2024-25 minutes, 4th): Much of this experience comes from Harden and Leonard, but Batum and Powell also contribute significant postseason minutes.
Minor Issues
This group of five teams has less significant weaknesses that could potentially matter in a close series or specific matchup but are unlikely to be defining or fatal flaws. These teams` strengths largely offset these minor issues.
Miami Heat
Stat category: 2-point percentage (53.8%, 20th)
Why it matters: Several broader factors suggest the Heat are unlikely to make a deep Finals run. Chief among them is the challenging first-round opponent they face as the first-ever 10-seed to advance from the play-in tournament: the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers. However, the Heat`s relatively weaker two-point conversion rate is another contributing factor. This is perhaps best illustrated by the unusual trajectory of Bam Adebayo`s two-point shooting, which dropped from an excellent 56.5% inside the arc in his first five seasons to just 53.1% since – a decline from 8% better than league average to 3% worse.
Indiana Pacers
Stat category: 3-point attempt rate (40.0% of FGA, 21st)
Why it matters: Despite being strongly associated with Tyrese Haliburton, one of the league`s most prolific high-scoring three-point shooters, the Indiana Pacers are not a team that heavily relies on outside shooting volume. Beyond Haliburton, none of their top seven players by minutes played took a significantly above-average proportion of their shots from three-point range. In fact, Pascal Siakam, Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, and T.J. McConnell were well below the league average in this regard. Although Indiana still ranked ninth in offensive rating despite a lower volume of three-pointers, their offense may be slightly more predictable from the outside compared to other teams at a similar level of contention.
Boston Celtics
Stat category: Opponent assist rate (opponents assist on 59.6% of made FGs, 29th)
Why it matters: The fact that such a niche statistic represents the Celtics` biggest potential weakness among the predictive factors for Finals teams speaks volumes about their overall strength. Boston performed positively compared to the league average in most key categories this season, particularly those most important in the playoffs. This analysis had to search for less obvious flaws. Nonetheless, it is intriguing that teams that allow fewer opponent assists – typically an indicator of stifling ball movement, which Boston excels at with their numerous tough perimeter defenders – have historically fared worse in the playoffs.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Stat category: Free throw attempt rate (24.9 FTA per 100 FGA, 10th)
Why it matters: Led by Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, and Rudy Gobert, the Timberwolves were effective at getting to the free-throw line this season, despite ranking 25th as a team in two-point attempts per 100 possessions (two-pointers result in drawing fouls much more often than threes). This strength could potentially become a vulnerability if they don`t receive the same volume of whistles in the playoffs. However, it`s worth noting that each of the Wolves` top five scorers last season (Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, Naz Reid, Mike Conley, Gobert) maintained or exceeded their regular-season free throw attempt rate during their unexpected Western Conference Finals loss to the Dallas Mavericks. Clearly, a lack of calls was not their primary issue in that series.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Stat category: Playoff experience (657.6 minutes per player, weighted by 2024-25 minutes, 15th)
Why it matters: Prior experience on the biggest stage matters in the playoffs. The Cavaliers have players with previous experience, most notably Donovan Mitchell (2,032 previous postseason minutes) and Max Strus (1,611) among their rotation members. (Tristan Thompson`s 2,616 previous minutes may be less impactful if he doesn`t play significant minutes). However, while the Cavaliers` average of approximately 658 minutes per player (weighted by this season`s playing time) is higher than the very low number seen from Oklahoma City last season, it is still relatively low by historical standards. Teams with between 500 and 1,000 average previous postseason minutes tend to win slightly fewer games in the playoffs than expected based on their regular-season performance. This makes it a minor concern for Cleveland, but a concern nonetheless.
