The first week of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is drawing to a close, bringing with it the initial wave of theories, narratives, and discussion points based on the games played so far.
As is common, some of these early storylines prove true as series progress past Game 1 into Games 2 or 3. Others dissolve upon closer inspection, their narratives undermined by additional context or a larger sample size of play.
With that in mind, let`s take a closer look at some of the prevalent chatter surrounding each series and determine if there`s genuine substance behind the noise or if it`s simply unfounded.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators: Has Ottawa truly been the superior team at 5-on-5?
Listening to Travis Green or the Senators fanbase, you might believe the Maple Leafs are fortunate to hold a 2-0 lead against their provincial rivals in the first-round Battle of Ontario. The Sens coach specifically highlighted his team`s 5-on-5 performance after Toronto`s 6-2 victory in Game 1. Following the overtime loss in Game 2, the coach stated he felt his team likely deserved a better result after another strong showing. Much of the discussion around the series has echoed this sentiment.
Is this significant or insignificant? There`s a kernel of truth here. The Senators have indeed played some high-quality hockey during 5-on-5 play, enough to suggest they have the capability to secure a win later in the series. However, context is crucial, and here it seems to lean more towards insignificance than something Ottawa should rely on heavily. Firstly, being better at 5-on-5 matters little if another fundamental aspect of your game involves frequent penalties, allowing your opponent to score multiple power-play goals (Toronto scored three in Game 1 and another in Game 2). More importantly, a broader perspective is needed on how those 5-on-5 numbers were achieved.
As analyzed by Sportsnet`s Justin Bourne regarding the series` initial two games, you cannot evaluate the teams` 5-on-5 performance without considering the game score and its influence on each team`s strategy. In both Game 1 and Game 2, Toronto established an early lead and subsequently shifted to a defensive posture, permitting the Senators to push. When the score was tied (i.e., when the Leafs weren`t protecting a lead), Toronto actually held the advantage in shot attempts. Therefore, until the Senators can replicate their 5-on-5 success when the game is evenly contested, this particular narrative appears to be without much substance.
