As the 2024-25 NBA regular season enters its final weeks, teams are focusing on the upcoming postseason. With the regular season concluding on April 13, there are still crucial games to be played.
While the Oklahoma City Thunder have secured the top seed in the Western Conference, the battle for the second seed remains intense. In the East, the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, and New York Knicks have already clinched their playoff berths.
Our NBA insiders — Brian Windhorst, Bobby Marks, Tim MacMahon, Zach Kram, and Jamal Collier — analyze the key aspects to watch in the regular season`s final stretch, from contract incentives to the race for the top draft pick.
Which Player Contract Incentives Are in Play?
This season began with 53 players, including stars like Kevin Durant and role players like Derrick White, having contract incentives tied to various achievements, from All-Star selections to 3-pointers made. Durant, White, and Jae`Sean Tate have already met their incentive criteria, earning a combined $2 million. White also earned an additional $500,000 for playing at least 70 games.
ESPN predicts that only five more players — Dillon Brooks, Jonathan Isaac, Cameron Johnson, Chris Paul, and Julius Randle — are currently on track to achieve regular-season bonuses.
Brooks is set to earn $1 million if the Houston Rockets secure a playoff spot. Johnson stands to gain $562,000 if he maintains a true shooting percentage above 60% (currently at 63.2%). Paul is just one win away from a $262,000 bonus and is also on pace for two further bonuses related to net rating and true shooting, potentially adding $523,000.
Randle`s $1.4 million bonus hinges on the Timberwolves reaching the first round of the playoffs. They are currently in the play-in tournament, closely behind the Golden State Warriors for the sixth seed.
Isaac`s incentive – a significant $2.6 million for playing 70 regular-season games for the Orlando Magic – seemed the least likely at the season`s start, given his injury history. However, he has played 65 games this season and is on track to play his most games since 2018-19. — Bobby Marks
Which Playoff Contender Faces the Highest Stakes This Postseason?
Memphis has become a team to watch after firing coach Taylor Jenkins shortly before the season`s end, introducing significant uncertainty.
Firstly, the Grizzlies are taking a gamble by appointing interim coach Tuomas Iisalo, known for his intense and system-oriented approach, despite his lack of NBA playoff experience. This bold move, possibly inspired by GM Zach Kleiman`s belief in Iisalo`s fast-paced offense, could be pivotal. It`s hoped this change, following Jenkins` move away from aggressive offense, might propel Memphis into a strong postseason.
Secondly, the team`s stars` reaction to this new direction is critical. This season has seen reduced minutes, shot attempts, and points for Ja Morant and Desmond Bane, even as the Grizzlies` offensive efficiency improved. Questions about Morant`s feelings, especially as he approaches contract extension eligibility, have fueled rumors about his Memphis future, which Kleiman dismissed after the trade deadline.
Ultimately, the Grizzlies have underperformed. After being the second seed in the West in the past two regular seasons, they failed to make a deep playoff run, partly due to Morant`s off-court issues. Last season was marred by injuries and Morant`s suspension. Now, despite being a No. 2 seed again in early February, their momentum has waned. They need to prove their mettle when it truly counts. — Brian Windhorst
Eastern Conference Playoff Positioning to Watch
The three-way contest for the fourth to sixth seeds in the East, involving the Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons, and Milwaukee Bucks, is particularly interesting. Damian Lillard`s indefinite absence due to blood clots has significantly impacted the Bucks, who have dropped to No. 6 after losing six of their last ten games. While there is optimism for Lillard`s return this season, the Bucks face a tough stretch without their star guard.
Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers have been one of the league`s hottest teams since the All-Star break, with a 13-8 record, and Tyrese Haliburton is performing at an All-NBA level. The surging Pistons are also in contention to host a first-round series in their first playoff appearance since 2019. If the Bucks remain at the No. 6 seed, they are likely to face the Knicks in a high-profile first-round matchup, with the winner potentially facing the Celtics in the second round. For the Cavaliers, avoiding these matchups would mean a potentially easier path to the conference finals. — Jamal Collier
Which Tanking Team Needs Cooper Flagg the Most?
In the past two seasons, the Utah Jazz have been competitive for much of the season before intentionally losing games towards the end, resulting in ninth and tenth picks in the drafts and missing out on a franchise-changing player. This season, they started tanking earlier, even facing a fine for violating player participation rules, and are now likely to have the best lottery odds.
Utah`s need for Cooper Flagg is greater than other lottery teams. The Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets are in the early stages of rebuilding, and the Charlotte Hornets already have promising young stars in LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. Teams like the New Orleans Pelicans and Philadelphia 76ers are expected to be competitive next season. The Jazz, however, still lack a young star to build around after trading Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert three years ago. Flagg could fill that void, especially fitting well with Walker Kessler defensively and Lauri Markkanen offensively. — Zach Kram
Will Houston Secure the West`s No. 2 Seed?
The Houston Rockets are now in a strong position to secure the Western Conference`s second seed, a surprising development. They hold a two-game lead over the Denver Nuggets, with their head-to-head matchup on the season`s final day in Houston set to be decisive.
The Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Lakers remain in contention, trailing by 4½ and 3½ games respectively, should the Rockets falter. Two of Houston`s remaining eight games are against the Lakers on the road. — Tim MacMahon
Players Approaching the 65-Game Threshold for Awards
Stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Anthony Edwards have already met the 65-game requirement for postseason awards. Gilgeous-Alexander is in MVP contention, and Jackson is eligible for a supermax extension if he achieves All-NBA or Defensive Player of the Year honors. However, several former award winners are close to but have not yet met this threshold, including Nikola Jokic (64 games), Evan Mobley (64), LeBron James (63), and others. Players must play at least 20 minutes in a game for it to count, with two exceptions allowed for games between 15 and 20 minutes. — Marks
