With a comfortable lead for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, the Ottawa Senators are focusing on finalizing their player lineups to maximize their chances in the first round. While they haven`t officially secured their playoff entry, statistical models suggest a very high probability of their participation. Therefore, establishing the most effective forward lines and defensive pairings is now a top priority.
In their recent 4-3 victory over the Detroit Red Wings, Coach Travis Green experimented with the forward lines. He reunited Brady Tkachuk with Shane Pinto and Ridly Greig, and paired veteran Claude Giroux with Tim Stutzle and Fabian Zetterlund. This new arrangement led to four goals scored during even-strength play, addressing a key area for improvement throughout the season, especially critical for playoff hockey.
Currently, the Senators are ranked 28th in the league for five-on-five goals per game, which is lower than any other team currently in a playoff position. However, there`s optimism that these recent line adjustments could unlock greater offensive output across the team.
The pairing of Zetterlund and Stutzle has shown increasing synergy. They are also roommates off the ice, which seems to have translated into instant chemistry on the ice since being put together on March 20th against Colorado.
Together, they have been effective in controlling the game and creating offensive pressure at five-on-five situations. They have significantly out-chanced their opponents (31-12) and accounted for a large percentage (65.17%) of expected goals during their shared ice time. Their contribution was evident in Ottawa`s two first-period goals in the Thursday game, giving the team an early lead.
Although Tkachuk contributed to Stutzle`s first goal, he played limited time with the Stutzle-Zetterlund duo in the Detroit game. Tkachuk`s impact is significant on any line, and his presence is considered more beneficial alongside Pinto and Greig to distribute Ottawa`s scoring capabilities more evenly across the lineup.
Tkachuk, Pinto, and Greig played together earlier in the season, from late December to early January, proving to be a productive unit when other lines struggled to score. As a line, they have achieved an expected goals share of 61.8% this season and out-attempted Detroit 15-8 in their recent game.
Meanwhile, the line of David Perron, Dylan Cozens, and Drake Batherson continues to perform strongly, with Perron achieving his seventh goal in March. They are arguably the team`s most effective line currently.
If Tkachuk can continue to enhance the Pinto-Greig line and the Zetterlund-Stutzle-Giroux line maintains its momentum, the Senators could become a scoring threat across three lines. This configuration appears to offer Ottawa the best opportunity to improve a season-long weakness and enhance their potential for a playoff upset.
On the defensive side, Coach Green replaced Travis Hamonic with Nikolas Mantinpalo, potentially presenting Ottawa`s optimal defensive setup for the playoffs.
Mantinpalo and Tyler Kleven performed reliably against the Red Wings, indicating they might be the most solid third defensive pairing for Ottawa. Statistically, Mantinpalo has a lower expected goals allowed per 60 minutes (2.53) compared to Hamonic (2.72). The Kleven-Mantinpalo pairing has conceded fewer goals in more playing time together than the Kleven-Hamonic pairing.
It’s evident that the Kleven-Mantinpalo pairing is currently more effective.
Although Coach Green emphasizes flexibility and the possibility of line changes at any moment, the recent game suggests that Ottawa is converging on a specific lineup that maximizes both offensive potency and defensive stability.
Improved Penalty Killing
The Senators successfully killed five penalties in the first portion of the Thursday game and scored twice shortly after returning to full strength.
Ottawa`s penalty kill demonstrated resilience, showing improvement recently after inconsistent performance earlier in the season. Before the trade deadline, their penalty kill was ranked 22nd, but since then, it has improved to 11th best, contributing to the team`s improved record of 8-3-1 during that period. A noted weakness has been the right side of the penalty kill unit, particularly when Nick Jensen was absent for several games.
Jensen and Thomas Chabot have the best goals-against record per 60 minutes on the penalty kill among Senators defensive pairings.
With Jensen in the lineup since the deadline, Ottawa had killed 14 consecutive penalties until a goal by Patrick Kane in the third period of the Detroit game, for which Jensen was not on the ice. In contrast, during the four games Jensen missed post-deadline, the Senators allowed four power-play goals in 12 shorthanded situations.
Struggling to Maintain Leads: A Growing Concern
Prior to facing the Maple Leafs about two weeks ago, the Senators had an excellent record of 25-1-1 when leading after two periods. However, since March 15th, in the four games where they held a lead after 40 minutes, they have been significantly outscored (9-2) and outshot (51-24) in the third periods.
Although they managed to win three of these four games, this emerging trend of struggling in the third period is concerning as the playoffs approach, especially against strong divisional opponents.
