OTTAWA — While comebacks are a frequent sight in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, overcoming a 3-0 series deficit is exceedingly rare. However, history shows that rallying from a 3-1 disadvantage happens more frequently than you might expect.
In fact, in all instances where a playoff series reached a 3-1 scoreline, the team trailing has come back to win 9.2 percent of the time. Interestingly, the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Senators` current opponents, were on the unfortunate end of such a comeback just four years ago, when they lost to the Montreal Canadiens in the opening round of the 2021 playoffs after holding a 3-1 lead.
“We can`t win the series tomorrow,” stated Senators forward Nick Cousins, looking ahead to Game 5.
Despite the score, the Senators feel they have played the series at their desired pace. They believe that if they continue to execute their game plan effectively, they can inject significant excitement into this “Battle of Ontario” series.
Coach Travis Green echoed this sentiment, saying, “I think if you asked us at the beginning of the series how we wanted it to look, it would probably look a lot like the way it has. And quite easily, it could be two-two.”
Ottawa`s most seasoned player, Claude Giroux, remains optimistic. He has personal experience with a monumental comeback, having been a member of the 2010 Philadelphia Flyers team that overcame a 3-0 deficit in their playoff series.
“We lost the first three games, but we felt like it could have went either way,” Giroux recalled of that memorable series.
Could finally winning a game in overtime change the series` outlook for the Senators?
Possibly.
“Makes us believe a little bit more,” Giroux confirmed.
After four games, the statistics show the Senators have generated more shots, more scoring chances, and more high-danger scoring chances than the Maple Leafs, yet they are still down 3-1 in the series.
“Sometimes it`s one or two plays that really make the difference,” Green commented on the disparity between performance metrics and the series score.
That`s the unpredictable nature of hockey, where a single bounce or play can alter the outcome. Toronto has been particularly effective in capitalizing on these moments, owning the second-highest shooting percentage in the playoffs (15 per cent). However, this efficiency dipped in Game 4, dropping to around eight percent – coincidentally, the game the Senators won.
When the Senators found themselves in a 3-0 hole, captain Brady Tkachuk drew a comparison to the 2004 Boston Red Sox. Like the Senators in their rivalry with Toronto, the Red Sox were often seen as the “little brother” to the dominant New York Yankees.
What famously happened with the Red Sox in 2004?
Boston completed a historic “reverse sweep” against the Yankees in the ALCS, coming back from being down 3-0 and ultimately winning their first World Series title in 86 years.
There are parallels in this current “Battle of Ontario,” as the Senators have never defeated the Maple Leafs in a playoff series.
Cousins laid out the Senators` strategy, mirroring the defiant attitude of former Red Sox first baseman Kevin Millar during their historic comeback:
“Win one game, make them come back to Ottawa. And [then] use our crowd to our advantage for Game 6, and then get another one there and then anything can happen in Game 7.”
If the Senators can maintain the level of play they`ve shown through the first four games, they have a legitimate opportunity to win Game 5 and make this series truly exciting.
The path to a comeback is clear, but successfully climbing this mountain will be an immense challenge for the Senators.
Warmup Incident: Case Closed?
Hopefully.
After Nick Cousins directed pucks towards his friend, Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Anthony Stolarz, during warmups before Game 3, the league issued fines: $25,000 to the Senators organization and $2,083.33 to Cousins personally.
Cousins addressed the media for the first time since the incident.
With a subtle smile, he gave the standard, straightforward hockey response regarding the penalty, saying he was “excited to kind of move on past that.”
When asked if he was surprised by the fine, especially considering Stolarz himself reportedly didn`t even notice the pucks near him, Cousins offered a playful reply.
“Was I surprised? Trick question. Is it not?” he quipped.
He later admitted he was “maybe a little bit” surprised by the league`s disciplinary action.
Just typical playoff antics playing out at the highest level.
Despite the league`s response, Cousins stated he knows how to get under his former teammate`s skin. The two former Florida Panthers players maintain weekly contact, but their friendship is temporarily set aside during the playoffs. Stolarz`s performance showed a slight dip in Game 4, and the Senators might hope that the “warmup-gate” drama could potentially create some psychological pressure on the Toronto netminder.
As Senators forward Nick Cousins put it, he knows how to get under former teammate Anthony Stolarz`s skin, but “clearly shooting pucks at him isn`t the way,” and he joked that he`ll “maybe save the warmups stuff for another day.”
“I mean, clearly shooting pucks at him isn’t the play, because he`s been lights out for them,” Cousins added, acknowledging Stolarz`s strong play throughout the series.
