Welcome back for another year of player comparisons for the projected lottery prospects in the upcoming 2025 NBA Draft. Drawing pro comparisons is a valuable exercise when approached thoughtfully, serving as a lens to consider a prospect`s potential future role, range of outcomes, and key development areas crucial for long-term success.
The aim is not to find perfect matches, which is nearly impossible, but rather to provide a framework for evaluating how a prospect`s skills and profile might fit within an NBA team context. With the draft approaching, let`s delve into potential high-end and low-end comparisons for the 14 players currently projected to be drafted in the lottery, plus one notable bonus selection on team radars.
1. Cooper Flagg, SF/PF, Duke
Mock Draft Projection: #1 | Top 100 Ranking: #1
High End: Jayson Tatum with more defense
Low End: Andre Iguodala with more offense
Flagg is widely seen as the consensus No. 1 pick, exhibiting the potential to become a top NBA wing player. His strength lies in his well-rounded game, combining stellar defense with evolving offensive skills. While he patterns his game after Tatum and shows flashes of creating his own shot, particularly in the midrange, his development as a primary scoring option will determine if he reaches Tatum-like heights or settles into a significant role as a secondary star alongside a scoring-focused teammate. The Iguodala comparison highlights his potential value through versatility and defensive impact, even if his scoring doesn`t consistently reach elite levels. Evaluators view his range of outcomes as exciting rather than concerning.
2. Dylan Harper, PG/SG, Rutgers
Mock Draft Projection: #2 | Top 100 Ranking: #2
High End: Jalen Brunson but bigger
Low End: D`Angelo Russell
Harper`s combination of size (6-foot-6), strength, scoring ability, and playmaking potential makes him a highly attractive prospect capable of leading an offense. The comparison to Brunson highlights his reliance on craft, attacking angles, and creating contact to manipulate defenses, though Harper needs to improve his 3-point shooting to match Brunson`s college efficiency. His significant size advantage for a ball-handler provides a high floor, ensuring he`s likely to be a viable starter. Even with average shooting and inconsistent defense (potential low-end outcomes), his game should translate. The comparison to Russell (a former #2 pick) reflects the possibility of being a productive player who still needs to figure out how to consistently lead a winning team, depending on context and continued improvement.
3. Ace Bailey, SG/SF, Rutgers
Mock Draft Projection: #3 | Top 100 Ranking: #3
High End: Michael Porter Jr.
Low End: Andrew Wiggins
Bailey is recognized as the draft`s most dynamic shotmaker, possessing significant scoring upside due to his size, ability to shoot over defenders, knack for off-balance shots, and a promising catch-and-shoot stroke. His primary development area is his ball handling and playmaking; he tends to settle for shots rather than consistently create off the dribble, making him predictable despite being hard to stop. The Michael Porter Jr. comparison is apt because Porter also had questions about passing/handling entering the league and has thrived in Denver as a scorer maximized by surrounding playmakers, not asked to be a primary creator. It`s easier to envision Bailey as an efficient second or third option than a bona fide No. 1. If he doesn`t develop that top-tier creation, his career might align more with Wiggins, a productive scorer whose impact on winning has varied.
4. VJ Edgecombe, SG, Baylor
Mock Draft Projection: #4 | Top 100 Ranking: #4
High End: Victor Oladipo
Low End: Jaden Ivey
Edgecombe`s potential centers on his development as an on-ball creator, leveraging his elite speed, strength, and explosiveness. Getting sufficient reps in this area is key. His downhill, hyperathletic slashing style draws comparisons to Victor Oladipo, who also took time to find his footing and maximize his potential in the NBA, needing to develop a consistent outside shot and ball-handling creation. Edgecombe has All-Star upside if everything clicks. While there`s development risk, his likely value as a high-energy perimeter defender and transition threat provides a useful floor. The Jaden Ivey comparison reflects the learning curve for athletic slashing guards in making good decisions with the ball. Edgecombe`s offensive outcomes range widely, but his defensive potential makes him a valuable top-five pick.
5. Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma
Mock Draft Projection: #5 | Top 100 Ranking: #7
High End: Monta Ellis
Low End: Jerryd Bayless
Fears is a crafty guard who effectively pressures the paint with daring drives despite his size. His profile is tricky due to his below-average 3-point shooting (28.4%) balanced by strong free throw percentage (85.1%), suggesting shooting improvement is feasible. His potential as a dangerous scorer and playmaker depends heavily on efficiency, either through improved perimeter shooting or exceptional interior scoring translating to the NBA. The Monta Ellis comparison highlights a smaller, high-volume scorer type who struggled with turnovers and inconsistent long-range shooting. While Fears could surpass this, banking on elite jump shooting is a step. A lower-end outcome could be a combo bench scorer like Jerryd Bayless, reflecting the developmental downside for a potential lottery pick if key improvements don`t materialize. His talent flashes offer optimism, but the path to stardom has significant variables.
6. Tre Johnson, SG, Texas
Mock Draft Projection: #6 | Top 100 Ranking: #5
High End: Michael Redd
Low End: Cam Thomas, but taller
Johnson is seen as a straightforward prospect: he`s expected to be a good, high-volume shooter, with other contributions being a bonus. His clean shooting mechanics make him a threat, and he shows fearlessness in shooting off the dribble, a trait needed for volume scoring but sometimes leading to poor shot selection. Efficiency inside the paint also needs work. Reaching a career similar to Michael Redd, a top 3-point shooter of his era who shouldered a heavy scoring load partly due to his unique jumper, would be an outstanding result. Johnson`s mechanics are notably safer than Redd`s were at the same age. The central questions for Johnson are whether he can achieve high-volume shooting efficiently and contribute to winning, similar to the discussions around Cam Thomas, a productive scorer whose value has been debated due to similar tendencies.
7. Khaman Maluach, C, Duke
Mock Draft Projection: #7 | Top 100 Ranking: #6
High End: Rudy Gobert, but quicker
Low End: Daniel Gafford, but bigger
Maluach fits the valuable archetype of a rim-protecting, rim-running center. Still developing his game and defensive habits, his sheer size (7-2) is a deterrent, complemented by above-average mobility for his frame, suggesting significant defensive upside. While limited offensively beyond efficient finishing, he has the potential to become a top player within this mold. The comparison to Rudy Gobert highlights his upside as a potential defensive anchor instrumental to winning, although reaching Defensive Player of the Year caliber is not guaranteed. His floor as a useful contributor feels secure; centers with his size, mobility, and role awareness (like the Daniel Gafford comp) typically find a place in the league. Added development, especially a 3-point shot, would further elevate his ceiling.
8. Kon Knueppel, SG/SF, Duke
Mock Draft Projection: #8 | Top 100 Ranking: #8
High End: Desmond Bane
Low End: Joe Harris
Knueppel is arguably the best shooter in the draft, but his potential top-five consideration stems from his comprehensive offensive game, including strong decision-making and passing acumen demonstrated in a significant role at Duke. His main concern is his average athletic profile (lack of elite speed or quickness), which could limit his high-end creation ability. The Desmond Bane comparison is relevant; Bane was an undervalued shooter with athletic questions who exceeded expectations by becoming crucial for the Grizzlies, given opportunities to create and take on more responsibility. Knueppel`s pathway to a best-case scenario is similar. If he doesn`t fully click as a high-usage shot creator, his excellent shooting ensures a valuable role as a floor spacer and contributor on good teams, akin to Joe Harris.
9. Collin Murray-Boyles, PF/C, South Carolina
Mock Draft Projection: #9 | Top 100 Ranking: #14
High End: Al Horford
Low End: Xavier Tillman
Murray-Boyles projects as a versatile frontcourt player (“gadget player”) capable of impacting the game across the floor offensively with intelligent passing and defensively guarding multiple positions with length, physicality, and toughness. His potential is tied to developing his questionable 3-point shot, which would compensate for his less-than-ideal size for a power forward. If his shot improves, he could become a modern Al Horford type – a versatile big man crucial to winning with defensive prowess and complementary offensive utility. Even without significant shooting development, his intrinsic strengths suggest a floor as a useful depth player on a roster, similar to Xavier Tillman, who shared some traits but was older and less mobile as a prospect.
10. Kasparas Jakucionis, PG, Illinois
Mock Draft Projection: #10 | Top 100 Ranking: #10
High End: Austin Reaves
Low End: Delon Wright
Jakucionis is a savvy 6-6 guard with strong instincts, skill handling the ball, and an improving shot. He relies on pace, timing, and improvisation over elite speed and plays an unselfish game suited for various roles. He needs to improve ball security (3.7 turnovers per game) and 3-point shooting (31.8%), although his demanding role contributed to these inefficiencies. A viable outcome is being valued like Austin Reaves, another crafty combo guard who found a significant role in the NBA despite entering older. Jakucionis is younger and ahead of Reaves at the same age. In a worst-case scenario, his well-rounded skill set and ability to play both guard spots should secure him a long-term NBA spot as a reserve, comparable to Delon Wright.
11. Egor Demin, PG/SG, BYU
Mock Draft Projection: #11 | Top 100 Ranking: #11
High End: Deni Avdija and Josh Giddey
Low End: Kyle Anderson
Demin`s appeal lies in his talent as an oversized playmaker with arguably the best passing vision in the draft class. NBA teams value his size and feel on the perimeter, seeing potential in various roles. His projection depends on how much he handles the ball and his shooting consistency. Risk factors include below-average foot speed and a streaky 3-point shot, as he`s not quick creating off the dribble and needs his shot to keep defenses honest. Comparisons to Josh Giddey (best with the ball, below-average shooter) and Deni Avdija (multiskilled off-ball forward) illustrate potential roles, depending on whether he develops into a quasi-lead guard or excels as a connective player. If his development plateaus below a top rotation spot, his long-term utility could resemble Kyle Anderson, providing valuable depth.
12. Derik Queen, C, Maryland
Mock Draft Projection: #12 | Top 100 Ranking: #11
High End: Alperen Sengun
Low End: Sandro Mamukelashvili
Queen offers significant offensive potential with face-up skills and passing ability to facilitate offense from various spots. The success of unique offensive bigs like Alperen Sengun (a former late lottery pick) provides a framework for Queen`s potential. Key areas for improvement include aggressive rebounding, engaged defense (aided by better conditioning/frame), and a reliable 3-point shot. While skilled offensive bigs have a place, the risk associated with players who have subpar physical and defensive traits is factored into team evaluations. If he doesn`t become a cornerstone player, his talent and basketball IQ should still ensure he finds a role. The comparison to Sandro Mamukelashvili (an offensive big often in a deep bench role) represents an extreme downside if Queen struggles defensively, but a middle ground outcome is most likely.
13. Joan Beringer, C, Cedevita Olimpija (Slovenia)
Mock Draft Projection: #13 | Top 100 Ranking: #15
High End: Clint Capela
Low End: Jaxson Hayes
Beringer projects into a clear, proven NBA role: catching lobs, rim-running, paint protection, and potentially some defensive switching. His appeal stems from his raw physical tools and above-average agility for a young center (doesn`t turn 19 until November), having only played organized basketball for three years. This limited experience adds risk but provides a long development runway for his next team. The Clint Capela comparison represents the classic outcome for this type of center – a player who succeeds around shooters and playmakers by finishing plays and being a threat around the basket without needing designed plays. The Jaxson Hayes comparison, an athletic big with tools who didn`t become a starter despite being a high pick, illustrates a lower-end outcome. Beringer`s career path will depend on how quickly he adapts to the NBA game.
14. Carter Bryant, SF/PF, Arizona
Mock Draft Projection: #14 | Top 100 Ranking: #12
High End: Trey Murphy III
Low End: Royce O`Neale
Bryant`s attractive profile includes perimeter size, defensive versatility, passing IQ, and a clean shooting stroke, fitting a valuable NBA archetype. He offers lineup flexibility defensively and has room to grow offensively. Expecting a significant leap in shot creation is unlikely, but improvements could put him on a trajectory similar to Trey Murphy III, a `3-and-D` type who developed into a scorer. While matching Murphy`s recent scoring output is a high bar, increased volume and consistency from distance would add value. If his development plateaus, he could still be a useful bench player profile, a larger version of Royce O`Neale, known for filling gaps and shooting well at both forward spots throughout his career.
Bonus Comp!
Noa Essengue wasn`t in the lottery of our most recent mock, but his rise into the Top 10 of the Top 100 rankings warrants his inclusion here.
15. Noa Essengue, PF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)
Mock Draft Projection: #15 | Top 100 Ranking: #9
High End: Pascal Siakam
Low End: Jarred Vanderbilt
Essengue has significantly boosted his stock with improved consistency and motor in Germany, playing an active style beneficial to winning. At just 18, his combination of size, mobility, explosiveness, and projectable frame offers multiple paths to NBA success. Forwards who can defend multiple positions, rebound well, and show comfort on the perimeter are highly valued. If he builds on his recent strides, he could become an excellent NBA player relying on physicality and motor while improving his skills, similar to Pascal Siakam. Essengue contributes effectively without demanding offense and shows good instincts, but a major offensive leap, especially in shooting consistency, is needed to maximize his potential. Without an offensive breakthrough, he projects as a useful role player providing rebounding and defense off the bench, comparable to Jarred Vanderbilt.
