The NBA conference semifinals represent a significant step up in both stakes and competition quality. Unlike the initial rounds, where only a few play-in teams were realistically seen as title contenders, by the time the field narrows to eight, every team possesses a genuine opportunity to win it all.
This heightened level of competition was immediately apparent in the first games of the second round. Road teams managed to defeat the higher-seeded teams – the top seed Cleveland Cavaliers, the second seed Boston Celtics, and the top seed Oklahoma City Thunder – in Game 1 of their respective series.
With the ultimate prize now clearly in focus, let`s analyze what each remaining team must do to potentially claim the Larry O`Brien Trophy this June. What strengths will they need to emphasize? What weaknesses must they overcome? And what specific matchups will be key, either to leverage or avoid?
Here is a look at how each of the remaining teams, ranked according to their title probabilities by ESPN`s Basketball Power Index (BPI), could win the 2025 NBA championship.
Oklahoma City Thunder
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 63.0%
- To reach NBA Finals: 51.5%
- To win 2025 title: 39.9%
Based on statistical models, the Thunder are considered strong favorites for the title. This is understandable, given their NBA record-setting point differential (+12.9 per game), being led by likely MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and boasting one of the most effective defenses in recent NBA history.
However, winning the championship might prove more challenging than their regular-season dominance suggests. Navigating a tough playoff bracket presents difficulties: in the regular season, the Thunder had a 2-2 record against both the Denver Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves, and went 1-2 against the Golden State Warriors. They also have less playoff experience compared to these Western Conference rivals, which was evident in their uncharacteristic performance late in a Game 1 loss to Denver.
To improve their chances of securing the franchise`s first championship since 1979 (as the Seattle SuperSonics), the Thunder need better play from their key players moving forward. Gilgeous-Alexander is currently experiencing a shooting slump, with an effective field goal percentage of 45% in the playoffs, down from his outstanding 57% in the regular season. His main teammates also struggled significantly in Game 1: Jalen Williams made just 5 of 20 shots, while Chet Holmgren scored only 12 points and missed critical free throws in the final seconds.
Last season, the top-seeded Thunder were eliminated by the Dallas Mavericks in the second round, largely because their supporting cast couldn`t capitalize when the Mavericks focused their defense on SGA. Williams and Holmgren will need to elevate their game and demonstrate they are capable of being championship-level second and third options.
Oklahoma City also needs to improve their rebounding. Although they acquired Isaiah Hartenstein to counter the size issues they faced against Dallas last postseason, Denver still grabbed 21 offensive rebounds in Game 1.
Despite one close loss, the Thunder`s overall title chances are not diminished. On paper, they remain the NBA`s top team. The key now is to translate that potential into actual playoff success.
Indiana Pacers
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 77.8%
- To reach NBA Finals: 37.0%
- To win 2025 title: 12.9%
The Pacers have been performing like an elite NBA team for several months. They ended the regular season with a 34-14 record, achieving the sixth-best net rating in the league during that period and ranking in the top 10 for both offense and defense.
They have maintained this level of play in the postseason, comfortably defeating the Bucks and taking control of their second-round series by winning two games on Cleveland`s home court.
Indiana`s improvement coincided with the return of key role players Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith, who missed time due to injuries earlier in the season. The Pacers` starting five, featuring these two alongside Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner, posted a plus-11.1 net rating in the regular season and have an impressive plus-18.2 in the playoffs, ranking second among lineups with at least 25 minutes played.
The core of the Pacers` team possesses a mix of complementary abilities: shooting, playmaking, fast pace, and perimeter defense. Coach Rick Carlisle also benefits from valuable contributions off the bench from players like T.J. McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin, and Obi Toppin, all of whom have scored in double figures multiple times in the playoffs.
Crucially, Indiana understands its playing style, enabling them to dictate the pace of games and disrupt their opponents` rhythm. With Haliburton leading the offense, the Pacers consistently create high-quality shots and rarely commit turnovers, providing them with a strong offensive foundation every night.
Their defense has also significantly improved compared to last season, when they struggled to get enough stops to truly challenge Boston in the conference finals. In 2023-24, Indiana was 24th in defensive rating in the regular season and 13th out of 16 playoff teams. This season, the Pacers are much more balanced.
Boston Celtics
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 47.9%
- To reach NBA Finals: 27.3%
- To win 2025 title: 11.9%
Nine Celtics players who featured for at least 100 minutes last postseason are still with the team this spring. The philosophy seems to be “if it`s not broken, don`t fix it,” as Joe Mazzulla`s rotation remains consistent after their 16-3 run to the 2024 title.
The Celtics possess a significant advantage in every game due to their volume and accuracy from 3-point range, making and taking more threes than any other team. They were also one of only two teams (the other being the Thunder) to rank in the top five for both offensive and defensive rating this season. But beyond system, Boston relies on immense talent, featuring five elite starters and high-quality role players like Al Horford and Sixth Man of the Year Payton Pritchard.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo`s Milwaukee Bucks eliminated, Jayson Tatum has a strong claim as the top player remaining in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Tatum himself has improved since winning a ring in 2024 (without winning Finals MVP). After sitting out Game 2 of the first-round series against the Orlando Magic, Tatum concluded the series with scores of 36, 37, and 35 points in the final three games, scoring effectively at will against the league`s second-best defense.
Even after losing Game 1 to the New York Knicks, Boston remains a solid favorite to advance to the conference finals. They swept the regular-season series against the Knicks and likely would have won Game 1 if not for unusually poor shooting. According to GeniusIQ tracking, the Celtics underperformed their expected effective field goal percentage (based on shot location and defender distance) by 15% in Game 1, their worst mark all season. If Boston`s shooters had performed at their regular-season level, the Celtics would have scored roughly 30 additional points in Game 1.
Put simply, the Celtics are expected to shoot better moving forward. When they do, they will be closer to becoming the first team since the Kevin Durant-era Warriors to win consecutive championships.
Denver Nuggets
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 37.0%
- To reach NBA Finals: 21.2%
- To win 2025 title: 10.5%
Nikola Jokic is widely considered the best player globally, and the strategy that led the Nuggets to the 2023 championship is still effective, as shown by his exceptional 40-point, 22-rebound, 6-assist performance in Game 1 against Oklahoma City.
However, Jokic cannot carry the entire load alone. For Denver to win their second title in three years, his supporting cast must also perform well. So far, they have contributed effectively: Aaron Gordon has made multiple game-winning shots, and Jamal Murray`s highly efficient 43-point game in Game 5 of the first round stands as the best single-game performance by any player this postseason.
Denver`s offense is as potent as ever when their top players are on the court. The Murray-Jokic pick-and-roll remains incredibly difficult to defend, generating a scorching 1.35 points per play in this postseason, according to GeniusIQ. In the playoffs, the Nuggets` regular starting lineup has a net rating of plus-12.9. A lineup substituting Russell Westbrook for Michael Porter Jr. boasts a plus-23.8 net rating.
As the playoffs progress, the Nuggets will have to contend with fatigue, as the team uses a short rotation and is coming off a challenging seven-game series against the Clippers before facing the tough Thunder team.
Yet, fatigue hasn`t stopped the 2023 champions yet. In Game 1 against the Thunder, the Nuggets scored 71 points in the second half. In their last regular-season meeting in March, Jokic and Murray combined for 69 points, and the Nuggets shot an impressive 56% from three (18-for-32). While they won`t sustain that level every night, they clearly have the capability to score heavily even against the league`s best defense.
If Denver can overcome Oklahoma City, they are capable of beating any opponent. It would be advantageous for them if the Warriors were to defeat the Timberwolves on the other side of the Western bracket, as Minnesota defeated Denver in all four regular-season games after winning Game 7 on the Nuggets` home floor last spring.
Golden State Warriors
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 66.3%
- To reach NBA Finals: 21.1%
- To win 2025 title: 10.5%
Three players still active in the 2025 postseason have won at least three championships: Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney. Add Steve Kerr, who has five titles as a player and four as a coach, plus Jimmy Butler III, who despite having no rings, has been the key player on two unexpected Finals teams, and it`s clear the Warriors have the most extensive high-level playoff experience.
To win another championship, the Warriors first need to navigate Curry`s absence due to a strained hamstring expected to keep him out for at least a week. The hope is that Butler can step up as the primary offensive option, supported by timely contributions from Game 7 standout Buddy Hield, Brandin Podziemski, and Moses Moody.
Meanwhile, their defense was the league`s best after the All-Star break, with the Butler-Green combination controlling the game defensively, successfully shutting down the Rockets in the first round and the Timberwolves in Game 1.
Kevon Looney`s contributions should not be overlooked. While the Warriors prefer playing small, the veteran center played a vital role against the larger Rockets team and against Rudy Gobert and the Timberwolves. He may be needed for similar efforts against either Jokic`s Nuggets or the double-big lineup of the Thunder in the conference finals. The Warriors possess tactical flexibility and extensive experience in making adjustments during a series.
Another factor in Golden State`s favor is Kerr`s understanding of managing the postseason as a long-term journey rather than just individual games. This will be particularly important as he manages Curry`s injury.
For example, in their Game 5 loss to Houston, Kerr conceded the game early, ensuring no Warrior played more than 26 minutes. This helped Curry and Butler stay fresh for Game 7 a few nights later, where they played 46 and 45 minutes respectively.
Unlike the teams higher on this list, Golden State may not have the sheer talent to simply coast to a title. Outside of their stars, they lack consistent offensive power, and with Curry injured, reaching the conference finals will be a significant challenge. However, if they can hold on until his return, they absolutely have the capability to find a way to win 11 more games over the next six weeks. In any Game 7 scenario, they might be the most reliable bet among the remaining teams.
New York Knicks
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 52.1%
- To reach NBA Finals: 22.5%
- To win 2025 title: 7.2%
It`s difficult to envision the Knicks winning their first title since 1973, even after their remarkable comeback victory in Boston. The Celtics likely would have won Game 1 if their shooting hadn`t been so poor, and they swept the regular-season series against New York.
Furthermore, New York struggled to overcome the sixth-seeded Detroit Pistons in the first round. The Knicks` total winning margin across their four wins in the first round was just 17 points, significantly less than Cleveland`s 122, Boston`s 66, and Indiana`s 54.
However, New York`s playoff performance so far, led by Clutch Player of the Year Jalen Brunson, demonstrates a potential path to a title: winning close games through clutch play.
More heroic performances from Brunson and the team would certainly help the Knicks win the title, but they would also benefit from some external factors, such as luck with injuries. After all, New York`s playoff run last year was cut short due to numerous injuries. Why couldn`t they be on the advantageous side of that situation this postseason?
New York is still considered the underdog against Boston, but Tatum and Jrue Holiday have already missed playoff games this year, Jaylen Brown is dealing with a knee injury, and Kristaps Porzingis left Game 1 early due to illness. While the Celtics have greater depth and talent than the Knicks, this matchup would be much closer if Boston were missing a star or had key players hampered by injuries.
If the Knicks could manage to get past a hypothetically injured Celtics squad, and at the same time Indiana upset Cleveland, then New York would have home-court advantage in the conference finals, giving them a serious chance to end the franchise`s 52-year title drought.
Cleveland Cavaliers
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 22.2%
- To reach NBA Finals: 13.2%
- To win 2025 title: 5.2%
What seemed like a promising season for Cleveland has quickly turned challenging, as injuries and the strong play of the Pacers are impacting the East`s top seed. Darius Garland missed the first two games against Indiana; Evan Mobley and De`Andre Hunter missed Game 2; and Tyrese Haliburton`s game-winning 3-pointer put the Cavaliers in a concerning 2-0 deficit.
So, how can Cleveland recover and get back on track for a title? The most crucial step is getting healthy. The short-handed Cavaliers led for most of Game 2, thanks to Donovan Mitchell`s 48 points, but relying solely on such individual performances is not sustainable, especially given how exhausted Mitchell and Jarrett Allen appeared towards the end of the game. Cleveland desperately needs Mobley`s size, Garland`s playmaking, and Hunter`s shooting, in addition to the depth they provide, to have a realistic chance at a comeback.
Other factors offer some hope for Cleveland. They are likely to shoot better from three in upcoming games; they ranked second in the regular season with a 38% mark and shot 44% in their first-round sweep of the Miami Heat, but have managed only 26% through two games against the Pacers. Conversely, the Pacers` 47% shooting from three so far is almost certainly unsustainable.
If their injured stars return (an extra day off before Game 3 should help) and shooting percentages normalize, Cleveland actually has a chance to overcome their deficit, even with Indiana hosting Games 3 and 4. It will be difficult for the Cavaliers, but five previous teams have won a playoff series after losing the first two games at home, most recently the 2020-21 LA Clippers against Dallas.
Mapping out the rest of the Cavaliers` playoff journey beyond the conference semifinals currently feels overly optimistic. However, a fully healthy Cleveland squad won 64 games with the NBA`s second-best point differential this season. That team is capable of winning the championship, provided they can get past Indiana. But time is running out.
Minnesota Timberwolves
BPI odds:
- To reach conference finals: 33.7%
- To reach NBA Finals: 6.3%
- To win 2025 title: 1.9%
The Timberwolves entered the playoffs with strong momentum, winning 17 of their final 21 regular-season games, and then comfortably upset the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round. Minnesota`s stifling defense held a team featuring two of the greatest offensive players in NBA history—LeBron James and Luka Doncic—under 100 points in three out of five games.
With Anthony Edwards ascending to stardom, Julius Randle playing the best playoff basketball of his career, Jaden McDaniels embodying the ideal 3-and-D player, and capable bench players like Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Minnesota is blessed with excellent shooting and size throughout the roster.
Even though they lost Game 1 to a Warriors team mostly without Curry, the odds significantly shifted in Minnesota`s favor upon the news that the NBA`s leading 3-point shooter was ruled out.
However, the Timberwolves themselves need to improve their outside shooting to advance further in the playoffs. They defeated the Lakers despite shooting only 32% from distance as a team, a drop from their regular-season mark of 38% (fourth in the NBA). In Game 1 against Golden State, Minnesota started 0-for-16 from three and made only five total.
Specifically, DiVincenzo, Alexander-Walker, and Mike Conley have collectively shot a poor 21% from three (17-for-82) this postseason. At least one of them needs to consistently hit open shots to provide Edwards with a reliable backcourt partner in crucial moments.
It would also benefit Minnesota if Jokic and the Nuggets could upset the Thunder, as Minnesota has performed well against Denver over the past year. But the Timberwolves are confident and possess the athleticism and defensive capabilities to make any opponent`s life difficult in a seven-game series.
Last season, the Timberwolves made significant progress, reaching the conference finals before running out of steam. They may have learned how to better manage their energy this time. That prospect is concerning for any team that might face them.
