The initial days of the NBA conference semifinals presented an unprecedented situation in league history.
For the first time ever, visiting teams secured victories in all four Game 1s, and subsequently also won both Eastern Conference Game 2s.
This improbable outcome was particularly noteworthy given the regular season dominance displayed by the top two teams in the East. Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics achieved 60-plus wins, averaging 12 more victories than their lower-seeded opponents, the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks.
As the Eastern Conference series pause for a day before resuming play – with Indiana and New York holding 2-0 leads heading into Games 3 and 4 at home – let`s examine the struggles faced by the favorites and what this reveals about Boston`s and Cleveland`s prospects for a comeback to reach the East Finals matchup that seemed highly probable just a week prior.
Cavs-Pacers: `Spida` Needs Help, Fast
Similar to three of the four road wins in Game 1, Indiana`s triumph was characterized by exceptionally high 3-point shooting percentage. The Pacers made 19 of 36 attempts from beyond the arc (53%), while the Cavaliers – who finished second in 3-point percentage during the regular season – connected on just 9 of 38 attempts (24%).
Unlike other series, team rust wasn`t a primary explanation, as Indiana concluded its five-game series win slightly later than Cleveland completed its sweep.
The shooting disparity narrowed somewhat in Game 2, with the Pacers shooting 39% from three compared to the Cavaliers` 28%. Despite the absences of a key starter and other important players, Cleveland appeared poised to even the series, leading by 17 points late in the third quarter and by seven points before the game unraveled. The final minute saw turnovers by the Cavaliers and offensive rebounds by Indiana off missed free throws, setting up the game-winning plays.
However, Indiana`s position might not be as dominant as it seems. Of the four higher-seeded teams that fell behind 0-2 at home since 2021, three managed to rally and force a Game 7. Notably, two of those teams ultimately lost the decisive game on their home court.
Naturally, Cleveland`s situation makes the upcoming Game 3 a critical must-win, placing a spotlight on the Cavaliers` injury situation. Key players sustained injuries in the fourth quarter of Game 1, while another starter has missed the team`s last four games dating back to the previous round.
If Donovan Mitchell delivers an exceptional performance similar to his effort for the majority of Game 2, Cleveland could potentially win without the injured players. However, the return of a defensive anchor is particularly crucial. Although Indiana`s scoring inside the arc wasn`t consistently high in Game 2, they scored a significant number of points in the paint, exceeding Cleveland`s allowance in any other playoff game, with a substantial portion coming in the fourth quarter.
The absence of a specific reserve player is poorly timed as he would be a logical replacement for an injured starter in the lineup. Without him, the Cavaliers had limited height beyond their starting center and a fill-in power forward, leaving their second unit undersized.
The Cavaliers have demonstrated the capability to win without their starting point guard, but his return would alleviate some of Mitchell`s offensive burden. Mitchell`s performance in Game 2 featured a very high usage rate, meaning on average, nearly every team possession with him on the court ended with him taking a shot, committing a turnover, or going to the free-throw line. (Given this heavy responsibility, it`s understandable that Mitchell appeared fatigued late in the game.)
From a tactical perspective, the Pacers` initial two wins do not suggest they would be favored over a fully healthy Cavaliers team on a neutral court.
However, Indiana only needs to secure two more victories out of the remaining five games, three of which will be played at home, and it remains uncertain how soon Cleveland will be healthy. Consequently, the Pacers are now considered the clear favorites to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Celtics-Knicks: Three-Point Shooting Woes Plague the Champs
As previously mentioned, at least the Celtics have faced this situation before, having trailed 0-3 in a previous conference finals series before mounting a comeback to force a Game 7, which they ultimately lost at home. In fact, this marks the fourth time a Celtics team featuring a veteran player has fallen behind 0-2 at home in the playoffs since 2017.
In some respects, this isn`t entirely surprising. Over their last four playoff runs, including a Finals loss and a title win, Boston has consistently performed significantly better away from their home arena. The Celtics hold a strong road playoff record during this period, securing at least one road win in every series played thus far. No other team has a significantly winning record on the road in the same timeframe.
Conversely, Boston`s home record in the playoffs over the last four years is less impressive. Only one other team has recorded a similar number of home losses in this span, although the Celtics have participated in significantly more playoff games than any other team during this period.
Given this context, Boston losing Game 1 at home to a team they swept convincingly in the regular season seemed initially like little cause for alarm. Despite missing a high volume of 3-pointers in Game 1, the fact that they still managed to force overtime could be viewed positively.
Defying the expectation of a rebound performance, the poor outside shooting persisted into Game 2. Boston took fewer 3-pointers compared to Game 1 but again converted them at a low percentage. The Celtics are one of only two teams in the last six years to shoot 25% or worse from three in the first two games of a playoff series, joining a team from the 2021 East Finals.
To some extent, the focus on Boston`s missed 3-pointers is perhaps overly emphasized, partly because these attempts are tracked separately in the statistics. The Celtics actually shot even worse on two-point attempts outside the restricted area, without the added benefit of the extra point for makes.
Several of these missed mid-range shots came from one of their star players, who missed all his attempts from that area. The team`s primary scorers also struggled with these shots in the fourth quarter as Boston resorted to isolated plays while their opponent closed the gap. A limited number of their shots in the final period were assisted opportunities, according to tracking data.
Despite Boston`s reputation for struggling in close games, they actually had one of the league`s best offensive ratings in clutch situations during the regular season (defined as games within five points in the last five minutes or overtime). Furthermore, their net rating in the clutch during their recent title run was the highest among all teams.
Because the Celtics are largely healthy – with the exception of one player`s ongoing illness – and have controlled the initial three quarters of both games with a positive point differential during that span, they are in arguably the best possible position for a team trailing 0-2 at home. Amazingly, Boston is still favored by some oddsmakers to win the Eastern Conference.
However, the reigning champions travel to New York lacking momentum and with very little room for error.
