NBA playoffs 2025: Down 3-1, can Celtics or Warriors make history?

The second round of the NBA playoffs has delivered its share of surprises and excitement. We`ve seen upsets on the road, dramatic comebacks in the closing minutes, and games pushed into thrilling overtimes.

Less exciting, however, have been the unfortunate injuries affecting some of the league`s top players, a major disappointment.

Recently, the Indiana Pacers, seeded fifth, became the first team to clinch a spot in the conference finals. Three more teams are expected to join them soon.

As the playoffs continue with crucial must-win games for the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors, let`s review the key trends and insights from the second round so far, including which recent champion faces a potentially easier path forward, despite the long odds.

Celtics or Warriors: Who has a better chance to overcome a 3-1 deficit?

Both the Celtics and Warriors find themselves in similar difficult positions in the postseason. Both teams had title aspirations but are now on the brink of elimination, trailing 3-1 in their respective series, and both are missing their top scorer due to leg injuries.

But which team is more likely to become the 14th team in NBA history – and the first since the 2020 Denver Nuggets – to rally from a 3-1 deficit and advance?

Boston`s pursuit of a championship repeat just suffered another severe setback with the news that Jayson Tatum underwent surgery for a torn Achilles tendon sustained in a recent loss.

On the other hand, the argument for the Warriors might be that Stephen Curry could potentially return from his strained hamstring later in this round. However, it`s a tough scenario for Golden State: they first need to win a crucial Game 5 on the road against the Minnesota Timberwolves without him. If they manage that, getting Curry back for Games 6 and 7 could provide a significant boost. But Curry`s return is uncertain, as hamstring injuries can linger, and his game depends heavily on constant movement and quick changes of direction, potentially risking further damage if he comes back too early.

Without Curry, the Warriors simply lack sufficient offensive power. During the regular season, their offensive rating when Curry was off the court was only 107.0, placing them in the 11th percentile league-wide according to Cleaning the Glass. In the playoffs, they`ve been even worse without Curry, with a concerning 101.9 offensive rating, ranking in the 1st percentile.

The Celtics possess more depth beyond Tatum. They maintained a solid plus-7.8 net rating without him this year, compared to plus-9.8 with him. This difference has grown in the playoffs due to other important injuries to Boston`s key players, making the team more dependent on Tatum`s individual brilliance. Sam Hauser has been out since spraining his ankle in Game 1, and Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis are playing through injuries at less than full strength.

These health issues will certainly hinder any comeback hopes, but the Celtics` potential without Tatum is still higher than the Warriors` without Curry. Boston would also have the home-court advantage for a potential Game 7, while Golden State would need to win on the road.

Jay Williams points out Jimmy Butler after the Warriors forward took only nine shots in Golden State`s loss to Minnesota.

The Timberwolves have appeared dominant for significant portions of this postseason, effectively outplaying the older Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers. Meanwhile, the Knicks have seen six of their seven playoff victories decided in clutch situations. The Knicks have been outscored in the first, second, and third quarters during this playoff run but hold a plus-44 margin in the fourth quarter and won their only overtime game. Such extreme success in clutch moments might not be sustainable, which could offer the Celtics a chance to steal games, even with their primary closer sidelined.

Analytical models suggest the Celtics have a slightly better chance of mounting a comeback. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives Boston a 7% probability of reaching the conference finals, compared to 5% for Golden State.

Zone defenses are making a comeback

NBA teams traditionally don`t rely heavily on zone defenses. According to data, man-to-man defense was used 97% of the time across the league in the regular season. Only the Miami Heat, at 12%, used zone in double-digit frequency.

However, several teams facing elimination or tough matchups this spring have incorporated significant zone defensive strategies, resulting in the highest league-wide zone usage percentage for any postseason on record.

The Denver Nuggets provide the most notable example. Under former coach Michael Malone, Denver never used zone on more than five possessions in a playoff game, based on tracking data. But with David Adelman now leading the team after Malone`s surprising dismissal in April, the Nuggets have exceeded that number in every game against the Thunder, increasing from 10 zone possessions in Game 1 to 13 in Game 2, 21 in Game 3, and a remarkable 55 in Game 4. That last figure is the second highest for any playoff team in the tracking era (since 2013-14), only trailing the Heat`s 58 zone possessions in Game 2 of the 2020 Finals.

This defensive approach has generally been effective. Oklahoma City has averaged just 1.08 points per possession against the Nuggets` zone, which partially explains the Thunder`s struggles to score after ranking third in offensive rating during the regular season.

Cleveland has also adopted zone defense in this round. The Cavaliers didn`t use it once during their first-round sweep against the Heat because they didn`t need to. But finding themselves down 2-0 against the Pacers, they positioned Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley at the top of an active 3-2 zone and saw positive results, limiting Indiana to 0.70 points per zone possession in a Game 3 victory.

Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson reacts to the Pacers` dominating win in Game 4.

Other teams like the Milwaukee Bucks, Houston Rockets, and Warriors have also utilized zone at times. Overall, zones have shown a defensive rating of 106 this postseason, compared to 111 for man defenses in half-court sets. Brief periods of zone defense have proven to be an effective tactic for defenses struggling to contain opponents.

However, zone defenses are not without their weaknesses. Just last year, zones were less effective than man defenses in the playoffs, allowing 117 points per 100 possessions. This week, the Pacers demonstrated why.

Elite offenses, such as Indiana`s, can find and exploit the gaps in any zone. When the Cavaliers attempted to repeat their Game 3 success in Game 4, the Pacers were prepared. They were incredibly effective against Cleveland`s zone, scoring 1.92 points per possession – essentially equivalent to an uncontested layup every trip down the court – leading the Cavaliers to abandon the strategy. So far, nothing has managed to slow down the Pacers` high-powered offense.

Jonathan Kuminga is significantly increasing his market value this round

Kuminga, the No. 7 pick in the 2021 draft, is approaching restricted free agency this summer, meaning Golden State will have the right to match any offer he receives. Until recently, it seemed he might have lost the trust of coach Steve Kerr and, consequently, the opportunity for a lucrative contract this offseason.

Kuminga did not play in the Warriors` critical play-in game against the LA Clippers at the end of the regular season, nor did he appear in their actual play-in game against the Memphis Grizzlies. In the first-round series versus the Rockets, he was benched in four out of seven games and shot only 30% when he did play.

But after Stephen Curry suffered his hamstring strain, Kerr, needing any offensive spark, turned back to Kuminga. The 22-year-old forward has capitalized on this renewed chance, even as his team struggles: over the last three games against a strong Minnesota defense, Kuminga has averaged 23.7 points while shooting 60% from the field and getting to the free-throw line seven times per game.

He has emerged as Golden State`s most consistent offensive contributor in this series, demonstrating that he deserves a more significant role next season. Whether he remains with the Warriors or moves to a rival team seeking his potential, a team is going to offer Kuminga a substantial contract for that opportunity.

Ty Jerome is potentially decreasing his market value this round

In contrast to Kuminga, Ty Jerome is experiencing a downturn in Cleveland after a strong breakout season for the East`s top seed. Jerome averaged 12.5 points in 19.9 minutes per game and shot an impressive 44% from 3-point range, earning him a third-place finish in Sixth Man of the Year voting. Jerome continued this form with an excellent performance against the Heat in the first round, averaging 16.3 points per game and shooting 50% from beyond the arc.

As an unrestricted free agent this summer, Jerome couldn`t have picked a better time for his successful season. Last year, another combo guard known for his sixth-man role, Malik Monk, signed a four-year, $78 million deal to stay with the Sacramento Kings. Could Jerome have commanded a similar contract? Perhaps, but that possibility seems significantly less likely after his struggles against the Pacers.

With Darius Garland injured, Jerome scored 21 points on 20 shots in Game 1 but then shot just 1-for-14 in Game 2 and was the defender beaten by Tyrese Haliburton on the Pacers` game-winning shot. Jerome started Game 3 poorly as well, shooting 1-for-8, leading coach Kenny Atkinson to limit his minutes. Jerome played only 13 minutes, his lowest total of the postseason, as Sam Merrill moved ahead of him in the rotation. By Game 5, Jerome didn`t even get into the game until the second half.

Facing financial constraints as a projected second-apron team next season, the Cavaliers might now decide that retaining Jerome isn`t worth it if he struggles to stay on the court in crucial playoff games. Furthermore, Jerome`s difficulties under playoff pressure could also deter other potential suitors who might otherwise have been interested in seeing what he could do with more playing time and touches.

OKC`s strategic use of Alex Caruso is paying off

Let`s conclude by looking more closely at one of the NBA`s premier role players. Alex Caruso is not merely an elite defender among his peers; it`s fair to consider him one of the best defenders of the 21st century.

Based on xRAPM, an advanced metric that evaluates a player`s impact using statistics like individual numbers and teammate performance, the most valuable defenders in the play-by-play era (since 1996-97) are ranked as follows: Kevin Garnett, Dikembe Mutombo, Alex Caruso, Draymond Green, Rudy Gobert, Tim Duncan, and Ben Wallace. Caruso is in esteemed company, surrounded by Defensive Player of the Year winners, and he and Tony Allen (ranked 18th) are the only guards in the top 25.

The Thunder understood what they were acquiring when they traded for Caruso last summer. Caruso won`t produce the same high volume counting stats as Josh Giddey, but the former champion with the Lakers is a much better fit as a reliable option in critical playoff moments.

Caruso`s primary challenge throughout his NBA career has been staying healthy, largely due to his high-effort, physical style of play. To address this, the Thunder implemented a tailored load-management plan for him this season, resulting in Caruso playing his fewest minutes since the 2018-19 season. He was given numerous rest days, as non-All-Stars are not subject to the league`s player participation policy.

Caruso`s highest minute total in a single game was 31, during a close win in March; this was his only regular-season game playing over 27 minutes. In contrast, Caruso played more than 27 minutes in 47 games while with the Chicago Bulls the previous year.

Coach Mark Daigneault has continued to manage Caruso`s minutes carefully in the playoffs. After all, a player has a finite number of explosive jumps, lunges, and hustle plays available; there`s no need to expend them unnecessarily in games the Thunder are likely to win comfortably.

In Game 1 against Memphis, Caruso had a plus-minus of +30 in just 12 first-half minutes, despite not taking a single shot. The Thunder were winning convincingly, so Caruso remained on the bench after halftime. Similarly, in the Thunder`s decisive Game 2 victory over the Nuggets, Caruso played 10 minutes in the first half and sat out the rest of the game.

However, in competitive games, Caruso appears rested, plays more minutes, and truly excels. He forced several key turnovers in the Thunder`s significant comeback win in Memphis in Game 3. He recorded 20 points, 6 assists, 5 steals, and 2 blocks in Game 1 against the Nuggets. And he helped stabilize the Thunder on both offense and defense in a crucial must-win Game 4 in Denver.

The Thunder finished that game with a lineup featuring Caruso alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Hartenstein – essentially their starting unit with Caruso substituting for Luguentz Dort. This specific combination had not played together at all during the regular season, but it may represent the most effective group Coach Daigneault has at his disposal.

If anything, Caruso warrants an even larger role going forward. According to box plus-minus rankings before Tuesday`s games, Caruso was the second-most impactful player per minute in these playoffs, behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Thunder also posted an impressive plus-22.7 net rating when he was on the court. (Notably, the top three players in net rating during the playoffs are OKC`s Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, and Aaron Wiggins, highlighting the significant productivity of their depth.)