March Madness Shifts NBA Draft Landscape: Who's Rising and Falling Ahead of the Sweet 16

March Madness has already significantly altered the landscape for the upcoming NBA Draft, with the picture looking notably different as the Sweet 16 approaches on March 26th. While the eliminations of BYU and Kansas have likely concluded the NCAA careers of AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson, the debate over the future number one pick is far from settled. Indeed, as some prospects exit the collegiate stage, others are capitalizing on the tournament's spotlight to climb the Big Boards.

Dybantsa remains atop CBS Sports' list after a season where he led the nation in scoring. He demonstrated clear improvements in creating off the dribble, finishing through contact, and making offensive reads. His modern wing attributes—size, length, and athleticism—solidify his position as the class's absolute benchmark. Peterson, conversely, concluded a solid year that didn't quite meet the high expectations set in October. He showcased flashes of pure shooting talent, but consistency was hampered by physical issues. If a healthy pre-draft period brings him back to 100% efficiency, the race for the top spot could quickly reopen.

Meanwhile, the tournament has shone a light on those still competing. Darius Acuff Jr. is having an absolutely starring March Madness run, confirming his status as the best advantage creator remaining in the field. Michigan's big men, Morez Johnson and Aday Mara, are climbing the rankings for different reasons: Johnson as a modern, two-way big, and Mara as an impactful rim protector with glimpses of playmaking. Tarris Reed at UConn continues his steady growth, while Otega Oweh at Kentucky is redefining his profile as a future two-way role player.

However, there have also been "fallers" whose draft stock has declined. Keaton Wagler slowed down after a dominant start and is now behind other guards in his class. Braylon Mullins didn't find the consistent perimeter shooting expected from a specialist. Finally, Joshua Jefferson saw doubts about his offensive translation to the next level emerge after a challenging Big 12 season. With the Sweet 16 on the horizon, there's still room for perceptions to change, but the initial trends for the 2025 Draft are already clear. Below are the profiles of the main prospects mentioned.

Key Prospects Spotlight

AJ Dybantsa – Forward, BYU (Freshman)

Dybantsa concluded the season at the top of the CBS Sports Big Board after leading the country in points scored. He demonstrated the ability to create his own shot even against high-level defenses, improving his capacity to finish through contact and make astute offensive reads. He made significant strides as a shooter, passer, and decision-maker. With elite wing size, length, and athleticism, he remains the most credible candidate for the number 1 overall pick.

Darryn Peterson – Guard, Kansas (Freshman)

Peterson experienced a solid season but one that ultimately fell short of initial expectations. He offered flashes of extremely high-level shot-making but lacked continuity due to injuries and availability issues. He didn't always appear to be at peak form or as explosive as he was in high school. If the pre-draft process restores him to full efficiency, the discussion for the first pick could quickly reignite.

Darius Acuff Jr. – Guard, Arkansas

Acuff is noted as the best offensive creator remaining in the tournament. At Arkansas, he confirmed his ability to carry the team, leading the Razorbacks to the SEC title with impressive averages of 30 points, 7 assists, and 4 rebounds, and replicating high-level numbers and percentages in the first two NCAA Tournament games. His shot-making, playmaking, and three-level scoring are already evident. Doubts remain about his size, explosiveness, and defensive consistency, but his offensive impact is undeniable. He is currently at number 5 on the CBS Big Board and the second-ranked point guard behind Peterson.

Morez Johnson – Big, Michigan

Johnson has transformed from being considered an undersized big man to a modern, two-way frontcourt player. He maintains physicality, rebounding, and interior presence as core strengths, but now also shows perimeter mobility and early signs of a jump shot. He has proven capable of performing effectively alongside a traditional center. His profile is that of an efficient, complementary big. He ranks at number 21 on the CBS Big Board.

Aday Mara – Center, Michigan

After two inconsistent seasons at UCLA, Mara has found continuity at Michigan. The 7'3" center is averaging nearly three blocks in under 23 minutes, but his impact extends beyond the statistics: his presence allows teammates to apply pressure on the perimeter, knowing they have solid rim protection. Offensively, he offers vertical spacing, court vision, and flashes of technical skill. He remains a prospect that can divide opinion but is clearly on the rise. He is at number 23 on the CBS Big Board.

Tarris Reed – Center, UConn

Reed is climbing the center rankings and could enter the first-round conversation depending on how the draft class solidifies. He is at number 38 on the CBS Big Board. He brings NBA-ready size and strength, with a 7'5" wingspan. His growth has been constant over four years in college. He scores close to the basket thanks to his physicality and improved footwork, and has refined his dribble handoffs. His experience in the UConn system should facilitate his transition to the pros.

Otega Oweh – Guard/Wing, Kentucky

Oweh's stock rose after his two game-tying triples in the first round, but his growth primarily concerns his projected role. He has taken on significant creation responsibilities, impacting efficiency: 33% from three overall, but a notable 60% on catch-and-shoot threes, suggesting good potential as a spot-up shooter. Defensively, his physicality and tools suggest a greater impact in a more defined role. His future appears to be as a two-way role player. He is at number 45 on the CBS Big Board.

Keaton Wagler – Guard, Illinois

After a dominant phase early in the season, Wagler slowed down, and his stock is falling. Shooting and court vision remain strengths, but limits in explosiveness and strength emerged against prepared defenses. He remains a lottery talent, but today he is behind other freshmen in the guard group, including Acuff and Kingston Flemings. He is at number 7 on the CBS Big Board and the fourth-ranked point guard in the class.

Braylon Mullins – Guard, UConn

Mullins is labeled as a shooting specialist, but his 33% from beyond the arc this season has raised some doubts. His long-term profile as a shooter remains interesting, but he might need more time in college to regain confidence and add physical strength. He is considered to be falling in stock and is at number 28 on the CBS Big Board.

Joshua Jefferson – Forward, Big 12

Offensive struggles in the Big 12 (39% from the field and 31% from the free-throw line) have amplified concerns about his ability to score in the NBA. He remains a pro-level prospect due to his physique and versatility but is no longer a guaranteed first-round pick. He is at number 34 on the CBS Big Board, and his participation against Tennessee in the Sweet 16 is uncertain.