NBA Free Agency 2025: Predicted Deals for 10 Star Players

James Harden

LA Clippers | Guard

• Best free agent fit: LA Clippers
• Proposed deal: Two years, $79 million. (The $41 million second-year salary includes $10 million guaranteed, increasing to $25 million if the Clippers reach the conference finals and becoming fully guaranteed upon reaching the NBA Finals.)

An All-Star selection and his first All-NBA honor since 2020 indicate Harden is seeking a raise and a multiyear deal. He played the fifth-most minutes in the league this season and appeared in 79 games, his highest total since 2016-17. As a result, Harden was the only player this season to record at least 1,500 points, 500 assists, 100 steals, and 50 blocks.

Given the scarcity of teams with significant cap space, Harden`s age (recently turning 37), and the importance of maintaining financial flexibility for 2026, the Clippers have room for creativity in his next contract. The proposed $38 million salary in the first year is an increase from his $36.3 million player option while still allowing the Clippers access to their full $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception. The incentives in the second year benefit both Harden financially and the Clippers if they achieve postseason success, reaching the conference finals for the first time since 2021.

Kyrie Irving

Dallas Mavericks | Guard

• Best free agent fit: Dallas
• Proposed deal: Three years, $113 million.

This $113 million contract proposal offers mutual benefits for both Irving and the Mavericks. The $35 million figure for next season is $8 million lower than Irving`s current player option, providing Dallas with greater flexibility to operate below the second apron. This positioning allows the Mavericks access to the $5.7 million tax midlevel exception. If Irving were to opt into his $43 million salary, the Mavericks would be over the second apron, limiting them to only the veteran minimum exception for additions.

Despite a lower initial salary next season, Irving would be guaranteed an additional $70 million in new earnings over the contract`s life. The 33-year-old suffered a torn left ACL in March but remains a crucial part of the Mavericks` future plans. The team`s general manager stated that they fully anticipate Irving`s return and believe they will contend for a championship with him back and healthy. Irving`s suggested three-year contract duration aligns with that of player Anthony Davis.

Julius Randle

Minnesota Timberwolves | Forward

• Best free agent fit: Minnesota
• Proposed deal: Four years, $121 million. (The fourth year of the contract becomes guaranteed if the Timberwolves reach the NBA Finals in 2026, 2027, or 2028.)

Julius Randle is not a restricted free agent but faces a challenging market should he decline his $30.9 million player option. However, this doesn`t preclude him and the Timberwolves from reaching a new agreement. Randle`s strong finish to the regular season (averaging 18.2 points in his final 21 games) carried into the first two rounds of the playoffs, where he averaged 23.9 points across eight 20-point performances. Yet, he struggled in Games 2 and 4 of the Western Conference Finals loss, scoring only 11 points combined.

The proposed four-year, $121 million contract (replacing his player option with a new starting salary) offers a favorable outcome for both parties. With a $4 million savings in the first year (Randle`s salary would begin at $27 million), Minnesota is better positioned to retain key reserves and stay below the second apron. The team`s president expressed optimism about reaching agreements with Randle and other free agents, noting their desire to remain with the team. The contract exceeds the $117 million extension Randle signed in 2021 and provides him with approximately $90 million in guaranteed money over the next three seasons.

Fred VanVleet

Houston Rockets | Guard

• Best free agent fit: Houston
• Proposed deal: Three years, $80 million. (The second year includes $15 million guaranteed, and the third season is a team option.)

Fred VanVleet`s next contract is pivotal for Houston`s financial flexibility this offseason and in subsequent years. The Rockets could exercise his $44.9 million team option by June 29, potentially using him as a trade asset, though this would push them into the luxury tax and over both aprons. A more likely scenario involves declining the option and negotiating a new contract with additional years but a lower initial salary. For instance, a starting salary of $29 million (declining annually) would position Houston $20 million below the second apron. VanVleet would still recoup the $44.9 million over two seasons.

Due to potential extensions for young forwards, the second year of VanVleet`s proposed contract is partially protected, and the third year is a team option. In the unlikely event Houston declines the option and doesn`t re-sign VanVleet, they would have the $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception available.

Myles Turner

Indiana Pacers | Center

• Best free agent fit: Indiana
• Proposed deal: Three years, $90 million. (The third year becomes fully guaranteed if Turner is named to the All-Defensive first team in 2026 or 2027.)

The Indiana Pacers and their longest-tenured player find themselves in a peculiar situation. Because Turner renegotiated and extended his contract in January 2023, he cannot sign another extension before June 30. However, both sides are permitted to negotiate a new contract starting after the NBA Finals. Indiana has avoided paying the luxury tax since 2005-06, but reports suggest they are willing to do so to retain their starting center. They are currently $20 million below the tax line entering the offseason.

A contract starting at $30 million and remaining consistent would achieve two objectives. Due to recent CBA changes, teams pay a less severe tax penalty for exceeding the tax line by up to $11.4 million. A $30 million starting salary for Turner would result in a penalty of only about $16 million for Indiana after filling out the rest of the roster, while also keeping them $7 million below the second apron. Concerns exist that a large contract for Turner could impact the team`s ability to retain its strong depth, as two other players are extension-eligible this offseason, one of whom will be a restricted free agent next summer if no deal is reached. The proposed contract would place Turner`s salary among the top 10 for NBA centers. Turner ranked third in the league with 144 blocks this season and is the only player with at least 150 three-pointers and 125 blocks.

Josh Giddey

Chicago Bulls | Guard

• Best free agent fit: Chicago
• Proposed deal: Five years, $125 million.

The suggested $25 million average salary might appear modest given that Giddey is coming off arguably the most complete season of his career. He joined Michael Jordan as the only players in Bulls history to average at least 10 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists in a single season. Since mid-February, Giddey averaged 22.6 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 9.1 assists. His six triple-doubles tied for the fourth most in a single season in franchise history.

Statistical achievements notwithstanding, there is a practical understanding that restricted free agency provides the Bulls with a competitive advantage in negotiating Giddey`s price, particularly because Brooklyn is the only team with the cap space to potentially make a significant offer sheet. The Bulls` executive vice president expressed confidence that Giddey fits well with the team and hopes to keep him for several years, feeling positive about his future in Chicago.

Jonathan Kuminga

Golden State Warriors | Forward

• Best free agent fits: Golden State, Brooklyn
• Proposed deal: Three years, $81 million. (The final year is a player option.)

Projecting Jonathan Kuminga`s next contract is a complex task. Like Giddey, the 22-year-old is a restricted free agent, giving Golden State leverage due to the limited cap space available across the league this offseason. However, unlike the Bulls guard, Kuminga experienced significant fluctuations in his role this past season, moving from a bench player to a less defined spot after a trade, before averaging 21 points in the Warriors` second-round playoff series loss. The only certainty regarding his next contract is that Golden State will extend him a $7.9 million qualifying offer before June 29.

Golden State`s GM acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding Kuminga`s contract outcome and potential sign-and-trades, stating it would be pure speculation at this point, but expressed optimism about finding better ways to work with him. A contract starting at $25 million would afford Golden State the necessary flexibility to complete their roster while remaining below the second apron.

Ty Jerome

Cleveland Cavaliers | Guard

• Best free agent fits: Cleveland, Atlanta, Brooklyn, Charlotte, Sacramento
• Proposed deal: Four years, $40 million. (The final year is a team option.)

Ty Jerome is considered one of the better backup guards available in free agency and is likely to see a significant pay increase from his $2.6 million salary last season. After playing only two games the previous year, Jerome finished second in Sixth Man voting in 2024-25. Finally healthy, he appeared in 70 games, setting career highs in points (12.3), field goal percentage (52%), and 3-point percentage (43%). Cleveland was notably successful with Jerome on the court during the regular season, boasting a plus-11 net rating per 100 possessions.

Re-signing with Cleveland appears to be the logical choice, especially considering their starting guard could miss the beginning of the season following surgery. The Cavaliers are permitted to offer up to a four-year, $64 million contract, the highest possible offer from any team besides Brooklyn. However, Cleveland is facing the luxury tax for the first time since 2018 and is already $13 million over the second apron. A starting salary of $14 million would significantly increase their tax penalty (by an estimated $80 million) and push them further over the second apron. The team`s president indicated the owner has authorized spending into the tax. Atlanta, Brooklyn, Charlotte, and Sacramento all need guard depth and possess the full $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception, making them potential destinations. A $10 million starting salary for Jerome would be comparable to a contract signed by another backup guard last season.

Naz Reid

Minnesota Timberwolves | Forward

• Best free agent fits: Minnesota, Detroit
• Proposed deal: Three years, $57 million. (The final year is a player option.)

Predicting Naz Reid`s next contract is challenging due to the Timberwolves` financial situation and the limited spending power of most other teams (many only having the $14.1 million midlevel exception), despite the former Sixth Man of the Year having his most productive season. Reid achieved career highs in points (14.2), rebounds (6.0), and assists and ranked second among reserves in playoff points in 2025 (and first in 2024).

By declining his $15 million player option and signing a three-year, $57 million deal with Minnesota or a team with cap space, Reid would receive a slight salary increase while gaining the flexibility to extend or become a free agent in 2027 via the player option. Meanwhile, the Detroit Pistons could create up to $17 million in cap space, potentially more through trades, but this would likely involve letting go of other free agents. Minnesota and Reid could finalize an extension before free agency begins, or he could opt in and then extend in July. Reid is eligible to sign a four-year, $87.2 million extension starting June 27, which would replace his $15 million option with a $19 million starting salary. Alternatively, opting in allows for a four-year, $94.2 million extension with a $21 million starting salary beginning in the 2026-27 season.

Bobby Portis

Milwaukee Bucks | Forward

• Best free agent fits: Milwaukee, Atlanta, Detroit
• Proposed deal: Three years, $54 million.

Bobby Portis is set to receive an increase from his $13.4 million player option at the very least. However, similar to Naz Reid, Portis` market is likely confined to re-signing or extending with his current team or targeting teams with the $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception. His future contract in Milwaukee could be linked to the decision of fellow free agent center Brook Lopez. If Lopez departs, the Bucks would have the financial flexibility to offer Portis a raise and potentially use their full non-tax midlevel exception to re-sign another player or sign a starting point guard while their current one recovers from injury.