The demanding NBA playoffs, requiring four series wins that can each extend to seven games, often expose teams` vulnerabilities on their path to the Finals.
Every team, even the top three contenders—the Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 1 seed), the Cleveland Cavaliers (Eastern Conference leader), and the Boston Celtics (defending champions)—has weaknesses.
We statistically analyze these eight teams—the top three in the East and top five in the West—to pinpoint weaknesses and identify potential opponents who could exploit them in the postseason.
East contenders: BOS | CLE | NYK
West contenders: DEN | GS | HOU | LAL | OKC
Boston Celtics
Weakness: Slow Pace Offense
Finding a weakness in the Celtics, a top-five team in both offense and defense, is challenging. However, their methodical offense could be a playoff issue. It`s not just their reliance on 3-pointers, but their slow pace. They rank low in offensive speed statistics: 27th in pace, 30th in fast break points and transition frequency, and slow in time to shoot after rebounds or turnovers.
While their deliberate play hasn`t hurt their offense overall, Boston can get bogged down, especially when 3s aren`t falling, lacking the fast-break ability to create easy scores.
Potential Exploiters: Thunder, Orlando Magic, Cavaliers
The Thunder have the league`s best half-court defense. Relying on half-court plays against OKC could be problematic in the Finals. The Celtics lost both games to the Thunder this season. The Magic and Cavaliers also have top half-court defenses in the East, potentially making a series against Orlando frustrating despite their weaker offense.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Weakness: Small Backcourt
Unlike the Thunder and Celtics with strong defenses and no weak links, the Cavaliers` smaller backcourt is a concern. They depend on big men Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen for defensive support. Playoff teams often target smaller guards in switches, and Cleveland has vulnerable matchups: Donovan Mitchell (6-3), Darius Garland (6-1), and Ty Jerome (6-5), who is potentially the weakest defender. Opponents score effectively when Jerome defends pick-and-rolls.
Potential Exploiters: Thunder, Detroit Pistons
Teams with strong perimeter scorers can target this, but the Thunder are ideally set up. They frequently use guard-guard pick-and-rolls. Isaiah Joe, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso are top guard screen setters. This poses a threat to Cleveland, forcing them to choose between open 3s or allowing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to isolate against a smaller guard after a switch. Detroit, with Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. screening for Cade Cunningham, could also exploit this in a series.
New York Knicks
Weakness: Defending Stretch Bigs
Ironically, despite having a stretch big in Karl-Anthony Towns, the Knicks struggle against shooting centers. Only the Hawks allow more points from pick-and-pop plays. The Knicks often leave big men open beyond the arc or are forced into difficult rotations to cover the perimeter.
Coach Tom Thibodeau rarely switches Towns on screens, meaning a simple pick-and-pop in a five-out offense can overwhelm the Knicks` defense.
Potential Exploiters: Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks
The Knicks` potential playoff opponents include Brook Lopez of the Bucks and Kristaps Porzingis of the Celtics, who are top pick-and-pop players. Porzingis missed games against the Knicks but performed well when he played, getting open 3s. While the Knicks have wings to defend the Celtics, they`ve struggled to contain Boston`s shooters this season. The Bucks might be less of a threat due to fewer perimeter players around Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Lopez has also scored less effectively against the Knicks.
Denver Nuggets
Weakness: Transition Defense
The Nuggets` main weakness might be overall defense, ranking 20th defensively among winning teams. Specifically, they struggle in transition defense, ranking poorly in preventing transition points. Despite leading the league in fast-break points, they allow many defensively. They don`t allow many transition opportunities, but struggle to stop them when they occur, allowing high points per transition play.
Potential Exploiters: Thunder, Memphis Grizzlies
The Thunder, Grizzlies, and Nuggets have the best transition offenses. Oklahoma City leads in steals, creating transition chances. Memphis has consistently had a top transition attack. To contend for the Finals, Denver needs to improve this. They were somewhat better against OKC and Memphis in the regular season, showing near-average transition defense in those matchups.
Houston Rockets
Weakness: Half-Court Offense
Houston`s half-court offense has improved but remains a weakness, ranking 22nd, still the lowest among winning teams. Their overall offense is 11th due to strong offensive rebounding and transition play. They rely less on half-court plays.
However, easy points from second chances tend to decrease in the playoffs, as seen with the 2022-23 Knicks.
Potential Exploiters: Clippers, Thunder
The Rockets have a strong half-court defense but could face the Clippers or Thunder. The Clippers pose a threat with their defense, rebounding, and playoff experience. Although the Rockets have won regular-season games against the Clippers, key players have been absent. If the Rockets reach the conference finals, it`s a bonus, but they have had success against the Thunder, winning games with efficient shooting.
Golden State Warriors
Weakness: Midrange Shooting
Despite having great 3-point shooters, the Warriors struggle with midrange shots. Curry takes fewer midrange shots, and the Warriors shoot poorly on non-paint 2s, ranking fourth-lowest. Even with Jimmy Butler III, their midrange shooting hasn`t improved significantly.
They limit midrange attempts, but this might increase in the playoffs. Historically, playoff teams attempt more midrange shots than in the regular season.
Potential Exploiters: Nuggets
Interestingly, few potential West playoff opponents force many midrange shots. The Nuggets, however, do force midrange shots more than other potential opponents for the Warriors. The Warriors have had mixed results in midrange shooting against Denver in recent games.
Los Angeles Lakers
Weakness: Turnover Differential
Integrating Luka Doncic has caused turnover issues for the Lakers. While their overall turnover rate is mid-range, it`s worse since the All-Star break, ranking 10th highest. They also don`t force many turnovers defensively. As a result, their turnover differential has worsened since Doncic`s arrival.
Potential Exploiters: Warriors, Thunder
Oklahoma City forces the most turnovers in the NBA and has a historically large turnover differential. They forced many turnovers in a win against the Lakers. The Warriors have also improved at forcing turnovers since adding Butler. In a recent game between the Lakers and Warriors, turnovers weren`t a major factor, but they remain a potential weakness for the Lakers.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Weakness: Free Throw Differential
The Thunder excel in many areas, but they rank low in free throw rate and allow many free throws defensively. Their opponents take more free throws per game, a differential only worse than the Raptors.
Coach Mark Daigneault mentioned this issue, citing frustration over foul calls. While the Spurs have the best free throw differential, the Thunder might face teams like the Lakers or Nuggets in the playoffs, who could exploit this.
Potential Exploiters: Nuggets, Lakers
The Lakers and Nuggets are potential playoff opponents in the conference semifinals or finals. Denver had a free throw advantage in one win against OKC. The Thunder and Lakers are somewhat opposite in free throw tendencies. The Lakers are good at drawing fouls with Doncic but less effective at avoiding fouling defensively.
