The NBA regular season has concluded, marked by unexpected team performances and a significant trade that caught even bookmakers off guard.
Here`s a review of the NBA season focusing on betting trends:
Thunder and 76ers: Contrasting Fortunes
The Oklahoma City Thunder emerged as a historically favorable bet in the NBA. They covered the spread in 68.3% of their games this season, achieving the best record in this metric over the last 35 seasons, according to ESPN Research. Despite increasingly challenging betting lines, they maintained an 18-3 record against the spread as the regular season concluded, including an 11-game streak in March and April. Notably, Oklahoma City was the underdog in only three games, the fewest among all teams.
In contrast to the Thunder`s success, the Philadelphia 76ers struggled significantly against the spread. The Sixers posted a 28-54 ATS record, covering the spread in just 34.1% of their games. Only two teams in the past 35 years – the 2003-04 Orlando Magic and the 1995-96 Houston Rockets – have performed worse against the spread than this season`s 76ers.
Los Angeles Lakers: “America`s Team”
The Lakers have always held a special appeal, stemming from their rich championship history and a constant influx of star players, making them consistently one of the most popular teams in the NBA.
Every season, especially since LeBron James joined the team, the Lakers have been a popular betting choice. However, their popularity reached new heights in February when they executed a surprising trade for Luka Dončić, a highly regarded player in the league.
`If any team embodies America`s team in basketball, it`s the Lakers,` commented Johnny Avello, sportsbook director at DraftKings. `They have fans nationwide, and perhaps globally. They are extremely popular on our platform, both for weekly bets and futures.`
`Their betting volume was significant even before the trade, and it has certainly increased afterward.`
Both DraftKings and ESPN BET have reported that the Lakers attracted more spread bets overall than any other team this season. Interestingly, both platforms also noted that Los Angeles was their most frequently bet money-line underdog throughout the season, often receiving point advantages before Dončić`s arrival.
`Despite their strong performance in the latter half of the season, the Lakers were often underdogs in the first half, particularly due to injuries,` explained Adam Landeka, ESPN BET`s vice president of sportsbook strategy and growth. `Bettors heavily favored the Lakers as underdogs and were often rewarded, as L.A. achieved an 18-14 ATS record this season.`
Dončić`s arrival also propelled the Lakers into a popular pick for championship futures, with major sportsbooks indicating them as a significant liability in this market as the playoffs approach.
Looking back, oddsmakers like Hal Egeland from BetMGM are still puzzled by the Mavericks` decision to trade away their franchise player to the Lakers. Egeland, based in New Jersey, mentioned receiving around 100 messages on his phone on February 2nd, the morning after the trade.
`I didn`t initially think it was a hoax, as the news was already widespread,` Egeland stated. `My first thought was that some scandal must be behind it. Obviously, that wasn`t the case, but that was my initial reaction.`
Sportsbooks reacted swiftly, temporarily removing NBA Finals odds until they fully grasped the implications of the trade. Egeland noted that BetMGM adjusted the Lakers` odds from 40-1 to 18-1 overnight.
Egeland continued to monitor social media for reactions, and the sentiment was unanimous: no one could comprehend the Mavericks` rationale.
`I can`t recall such widespread agreement on any sports-related topic online,` Egeland remarked.
The Underdog Success Stories
Several teams significantly exceeded bookmakers` expectations, rewarding bettors who placed their trust in them this season.
One such team was the Portland Trail Blazers, who were the first in the NBA to surpass their preseason win total, according to ESPN BET lines, exceeding 21.5 wins by February 4th, their 51st game, and ultimately finishing the season with 36 wins. DraftKings bettors favored them more than any other underdog in spread wagers this season.
Twenty-five of Portland`s outright wins occurred when they were underdogs, tying with the Chicago Bulls for the league lead in this category and matching two other teams (2018-19 Atlanta Hawks and 1994-95 Dallas Mavericks) for the fourth most over the past 35 seasons, based on ESPN Research.
Unlike the Trail Blazers, the Bulls leveraged their late-season surge, surpassing 28.5 wins by March 17th, to secure a play-in tournament spot, although they eventually lost to the Miami Heat. Chicago was ESPN BET`s fourth most bet team on the spread throughout the season.
However, one of the most remarkable underdog stories of the season was the Detroit Pistons, who improved from 14 wins in the 2023-24 season to 44 wins and a playoff berth in 2024-25. The Pistons had +1300 odds to reach the playoffs at the season`s start, according to ESPN BET odds, and were the second team to exceed their win total, surpassing 25.5 wins by February 7th, their 52nd game. They also had the largest over margin (18.5) on win totals in the NBA.
`I believe we even had a prop bet last year asking, `Will the Pistons win nine games?` That`s how dire the situation was,` Avello recalled. `Their turnaround this year is incredible. For me, it`s probably the biggest surprise in the league.`
The Usual Suspects in Prop Bets
Given the Lakers` popularity, it`s not surprising that LeBron James is consistently among the most-bet players for prop bets across various sportsbooks.
Similarly, Dončić is typically a top-five most-bet player for props in the league, even before the trade. However, Avello finds it `somewhat unusual` for two players on the same team to be such popular prop bet choices, though he attributes it largely to the trade.
Beyond these Lakers players, the most frequently bet players for props are a collection of the league`s biggest stars: Nikola Jokic, Jayson Tatum, and Giannis Antetokounmpo all consistently rank as top choices at ESPN BET and DraftKings.
`It`s always the same prominent names,` Avello noted. `Bettors tend to favor players who are consistent and deliver significant stats… particularly over the past five years or so.`
