Recent medical tests confirmed the fears after Jayson Tatum collapsed during the Boston Celtics` defeat to the New York Knicks on Monday. Tatum suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon in his right leg late in the fourth quarter. This injury not only ends his participation in the current postseason but also casts doubt on his readiness for the 2025-26 season.
Given Tatum`s vital role for the reigning champions – he is their top scorer and a three-time All-NBA first team selection, likely earning a fourth soon – his injury is considered one of the most significant in NBA history.
The immediate consequence is the impact on Boston`s chances of overcoming a 3-1 deficit against the Knicks, who are now favored to win the series. However, the implications extend much further, affecting how the Celtics will approach next season.
Let`s examine how Boston might perform without Tatum, look at the history of Achilles injuries in the NBA, and what this could mean for the Celtics.
When Might Tatum Return?
No NBA player since Jose Juan Barea in 2019 has recovered from an Achilles rupture and returned to play in less than 10 and a half months. This history suggests the Celtics should anticipate Tatum being unavailable for the entire 2025-26 regular season. A return during the postseason is potentially more realistic, though there is almost no precedent for a player returning to peak form this way.
The only documented case I could find of an NBA player returning from a season-long injury during the playoffs was Larry Krystkowiak for the Milwaukee Bucks in 1991. He came back from an ACL repair to play three games and scored a total of two points. While Krystkowiak was a starter before his injury, the context was different compared to the absence of an All-NBA first-team star.
Postseason returns were discussed for Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson after they were injured in the 2019 NBA Finals, but neither occurred. The Golden State Warriors` 2019-20 season ended long before Thompson was cleared (he later ruptured his Achilles again that offseason). Durant chose not to join the Brooklyn Nets for the 2020 bubble restart and returned a year and a half after his Achilles injury at the start of the 2020-21 season.
Based on these examples, Boston may need to plan for the 2025-26 season assuming Tatum will not play at all, even in the playoffs. This significantly alters the outlook for a team that has won 15 playoff series since drafting Tatum third overall in 2018.
Financial Constraints and the Second Apron
As previously reported, the Celtics face a challenging financial situation. With Tatum`s supermax contract – the largest in NBA history, surpassing teammate Jaylen Brown`s – set to begin next summer, Boston is projected to be over $40 million above the 2025-26 luxury tax threshold. This calculation doesn`t include veteran Al Horford, who will be an unrestricted free agent at 39 years old.
The impending luxury tax bill and the penalties for teams exceeding the second luxury tax apron were always going to necessitate difficult roster decisions. Tatum`s injury forces these decisions sooner. Paying over $200 million in luxury taxes might be justifiable for a championship contender, but it`s a different proposition for a team whose ability to compete at the highest level is uncertain.
Age is another factor. If Boston`s next championship contention window shifts from 2026 to 2027, it changes the perspective on veteran players, particularly Jrue Holiday. By the 2026-27 season, Holiday will be 36. The Celtics might consider trading Holiday to another contender while his trade value is high, potentially reducing payroll and getting younger on the perimeter, albeit at the cost of defensive prowess.
Conversely, Tatum`s absence could prevent Boston from contemplating the drastic step of trading Jaylen Brown. The long-term financial challenge for the Celtics is having two players, Brown and Tatum, whose combined salaries exceed 60% of the salary cap through 2028-29. Maintaining the roster depth that has been a strength will be difficult now that their two key players are earning maximum salaries.
In Tatum`s absence, Brown`s capability to create his own shots becomes critically important. They were the only two Celtics rotation players this season who were assisted on less than 59% of their field goals – Tatum at 39% and Brown at 46%.
Expectations for Tatum`s Return
Comparisons for Tatum`s recovery will inevitably turn to Kevin Durant. Despite rupturing his Achilles at age 30, three years older than Tatum, Durant returned as dominant as before and remains an All-Star six years later.
Durant`s case demonstrates that a major decline in performance is not a guaranteed outcome after an Achilles rupture. Perhaps the most likely impact for Tatum will be on his durability. Including playoffs, no player drafted in his class has played more NBA games than Tatum. This season`s eight missed games due to injury – six in March and April as Boston coasted to the No. 2 seed – were a career high.
Whenever Tatum is cleared to play again, he will likely face restrictions, potentially sitting out back-to-back games and having his minutes limited initially. This could make it harder for him to earn additional All-NBA first-team selections, even if his per-game productivity remains high.
Historically, multi-skilled wing players have tended to fare best after returning from Achilles injuries. Besides Durant, this group includes Klay Thompson and Wesley Matthews, who returned less than eight months after his 2015 injury and continued playing in the NBA until age 37.
There is no certainty that Tatum will follow their path rather than become a cautionary tale like DeMarcus Cousins or John Wall. However, there is also no definitive reason to believe that an Achilles rupture marks the end of Tatum`s ability to perform at an elite level.
Can the Celtics Mount a Series Comeback?
First, the team must overcome the shock of seeing their star player helped off the court in a wheelchair. Tatum`s injury was disheartening, but his teammates will have a couple of days to process it before trying to extend their season in Game 5 at home on Wednesday night.
Even before Tatum`s injury, the Celtics were in a tough spot, trailing the series 3-1. Historically, overcoming a 3-1 deficit is more common for the higher-seeded team, which Boston is. However, teams trailing 3-1 in best-of-seven series since 1984 have only rallied to win 8% of the time (5-58), compared to just 1% when the lower seed is down 3-1 (2-141).
Furthermore, Tatum was the primary reason the Celtics were competitive in Game 4 despite giving up 70 points in the second half. Tatum scored 42 points in 40 minutes, matching the most career 40-point playoff games by any Boston player, before his injury.
In Tatum`s absence, the Celtics must rely heavily on their defense, which limited the Knicks to a combined 184 points in Games 2 and 3. Containing Jalen Brunson`s drives to the basket should be the top priority. Brunson`s 18 points scored in the paint on Monday were nearly equal to his total of 22 from the first three games combined.
As a team, New York scored 64 points in the paint in Game 4, the third-highest total for any team in a playoff game this season. The Celtics could compensate for Tatum`s absence by playing bigger lineups to improve rim protection, potentially sacrificing some offensive shooting. If Boston can disrupt the Knicks` offensive flow, they possess enough scoring ability among other players to win three consecutive games and achieve an improbable comeback.
Nevertheless, the combination of losing Game 4 and Tatum to injury has dramatically changed the landscape. Before Game 4, Boston had the best odds to win the Eastern Conference. Now, they are listed with the longest odds among the four remaining teams.
