By Jay Bilas
Approaching my 23rd year covering the NBA draft for ESPN, my respect for the evaluation process only grows. While I initially believed I could predict which prospects would succeed after extensive study, I quickly learned that certainty is impossible. Nobody truly knows how a player will translate to the NBA.
Success is based on belief. Few predicted Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would become an MVP after being drafted 11th, or Jalen Brunson an All-NBA player and Clutch Player of the Year. In retrospect, draft rankings shift dramatically within five years, especially in basketball where evaluations often rely on limited exposure to young players.
Yet, some players immediately stand out and instill that belief. While there are never guarantees, this year`s draft features a prospect who is as close to a sure thing as we`ve seen recently. Here are a few players in this draft class that I particularly like.
The No-Brainer
This is clearly the Cooper Flagg Draft. Every single NBA team picking first would undoubtedly select Flagg. He stands out as the most complete player available and arguably the best freshman prospect ever from Duke.
While Flagg has areas for growth, his current skill set is remarkably extensive for a player his age. Measuring a legitimate 6-8 with a 7-0 wingspan, he possesses athleticism, length, lateral quickness, and speed. Defensively, his awareness is exceptional, leading to steals, blocks, and strong rebounding. Offensively, he excels as a transition finisher and playmaker, is a skilled driver and finisher, and an excellent cutter.
Initial concerns about his perimeter shooting have largely been addressed; he shot well from deep in ACC play and nearly 39% last season. While refining his handle is an area for development, his shot is far from a weakness – it`s just not the most compelling part of his game. Flagg has the potential to be an All-NBA player, and I believe he will reach it. Barring major injuries, he is poised for success in the league because he is simply different. Beyond his physical tools and skills, Flagg is one of the most intensely competitive players I`ve seen at this stage, showing a maturity beyond most 22-year-old prospects in this draft. He prioritizes making the right play over chasing statistics, consistently making smart decisions that ultimately lead to impressive numbers across the board.
The Shooters
This draft class features several excellent shooters, with freshmen Tre Johnson from Texas and Kon Knueppel from Duke leading the way.
Johnson offers superior shot-making ability and athleticism. With a 6-10 wingspan, he led the SEC in scoring at 19.9 points per game and connected on 39.7% of his three-pointers, hitting 89 last season. Despite his length and physical traits, his defensive impact wasn`t always consistent, but his speed and agility are positive attributes for the NBA. Knueppel is arguably the draft`s best catch-and-shoot guard. As a freshman at Duke, he shot nearly 41% from deep, making 84 threes. Last season, he hit an impressive 48% on corner threes and was lights out from the free-throw line at 91.4%. Questions surround Knueppel`s defense and overall physical tools, but while he may not make an All-Defensive team, he isn`t easily pushed around and consistently hustles for loose balls.
The 3-and-D Guys
Length is a highly valued trait in the NBA. Players who can effectively guard multiple positions, switch defensively, disrupt plays, and generate deflections, steals, and blocks are invaluable. Add a reliable perimeter shot to this, and their value increases significantly. This year`s draft includes three such prospects who are somewhat under the radar but will be highly sought after on draft night.
Carter Bryant of Arizona, Rasheer Fleming of Saint Joseph`s, and Cedric Coward of Washington State represent the most intriguing prospects in this category. Bryant is generally expected to be the first drafted among the three. At 19, Bryant is an exceptional athlete, finishing in the top 5 in vertical leap and sprint time at the combine. He combines size with impressive length and possesses a consistent standstill three-pointer. Nearly half of his points last season came from made threes, with 82% of his shot attempts being either catch-and-shoot threes or finishes at the rim.
Fleming, 20, demonstrates great versatility with a 7-5 wingspan. He`s a capable multi-positional defender and floor spacer, hitting 62 threes at a 39% clip. His shot preparation is good, he runs the floor well in transition, and he is an outstanding rebounder. Coward is something of a hidden gem. He began his college career in Division III before transferring to Eastern Washington and then Washington State. Although he played only six games for Washington State, he scored 20 or more points in three of them, including 30 against Northern Colorado. While not as tall as Fleming, Coward possesses a 7-2 wingspan, speed, strength, and excellent instincts on both ends of the floor. He impressed significantly at the combine, finishing in the top 6 in the sprint, vertical leap, and standing vertical leap.
The Wild Cards
Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey represent significant talent and upside potential, profiles that would typically place them second and third in many drafts. However, both played together on a Rutgers team that finished with a losing record (15-17 overall, 8-12 in the Big Ten). While questions about their contribution to winning given their talent are valid, especially with Harper being a talented point guard, it`s unlikely the team`s record will significantly impact their draft positioning.
Harper is, in my view, the second-best prospect available. He is a long-armed scorer capable of scoring at three levels, boasting a polished offensive game, excellent footwork, and the ability to create his own shot. Harper is highly effective in pick-and-roll situations, making astute reads. His deep shooting (33% from three) isn`t yet consistent, but his mechanics are sound. He`s a dedicated worker but hasn`t yet become an impactful defender, despite his length and physical frame. Bailey is firmly in the high-risk, high-reward category. Few players in the draft possess a higher ceiling or can match his shot-making ability, particularly hitting difficult pull-up jumpers under pressure. Bailey demonstrated his scoring prowess with games of 39 points against Indiana and 38 against Northwestern. He has faced questions regarding his maturity, but it`s important to remember he is only 18, and his sheer talent is undeniable. Given Harper`s talent and skill set, I don`t see any team passing on him at number two, even San Antonio which needs shooting – a primary area for Harper to develop. Bailey should be selected shortly after, likely falling anywhere from third to eighth overall.
