In the previous playoff round, trailing Ottawa Senators fans referenced underlying metrics like shot attempts and “Ice Tilt,” suggesting they showed Ottawa deserved a better fate. However, those raw numbers didn`t fully capture the game flow. When games were competitive, the Leafs would accelerate to build a lead, then retreat defensively, allowing the Senators to take lower-quality shots from the perimeter.
The Leafs secured wins in close games, but they often didn`t feel genuinely tight contests. This highlights a key point: the true strength of a team is best observed when the score is close, typically in the first or second periods, before score effects influence how teams play based on the scoreboard.
It`s clear the Leafs aren`t a team focused on puck possession. Their approach doesn`t prioritize sustained offensive zone time; instead, they often dump the puck in, aim for quick scoring chances, and are generally content to defend in their own end provided they can keep the play to the outside and prevent shots from dangerous areas near the net.
However, constantly defending in your own zone is inherently risky. The more time you spend there, the greater the chance of unpredictable events or “bad luck” leading to a goal against. As the saying goes, if you stay somewhere long enough, something is bound to happen.
Even understanding the Leafs` strategic preferences, they should be significantly concerned about how vulnerable they`ve appeared against Florida. With the exception of Game 2, the Panthers have decidedly controlled play, particularly early in games, according to the “Time with Tilt” metric.
As a quick definition, “Ice Tilt” is a stat that uses player tracking data to determine the general location on the ice where the majority of play is occurring.
Let`s look at the data.
First, it`s important to acknowledge that controlling play, or “Tilting the Ice,” is a strength of the Panthers. They have reached consecutive Stanley Cup Finals and won eight of their last nine playoff series, demonstrating they are a formidable opponent for the Leafs.
Across all second-round games played so far in the playoffs, Florida holds three of the top six highest “Ice Tilt” totals, indicating they spent significant time with the majority of players in their offensive half of the rink.
Having over 41 minutes of “Time with Tilt” in a game is quite extraordinary. But notice that the game where Florida achieved over 41 minutes of tilt was one they ultimately lost. This result is partly due to score effects; the Leafs built an early lead and then prioritized defending, while the Panthers aggressively pursued offense.
Putting aside Game 2, where the Leafs had an excellent start before becoming passive, Florida`s successful pattern has been to be the dominant team right from the opening faceoff. In three of the four games played, the Panthers have owned the first period. Among all first periods across the playoffs this year, no team has controlled play as overwhelmingly as Florida did in Game 4 against the Leafs, where they held the Ice Tilt for a remarkable 18-plus minutes:
It`s worth noting that “Ice Tilt” reflects play at all strength levels. In Game 4, the Leafs took four penalties, which certainly contributed to the heavily skewed territorial advantage in that period.
You can see how the power plays in the first period, marked in red in the chart, allowed the Panthers to constantly press deep into the Leafs` zone:
Now, let’s examine the overall “Ice Tilt” data for all games in the series to see the impact those first periods had on the cumulative totals:
Interestingly, the Leafs` best period of the series, by a significant margin in my opinion, was the first period of Game 2. They anticipated Florida`s strong start and met it with physicality and sustained pressure, which proved effective.
In Game 4, I was surprised by the Leafs` passive approach at the start. As discussed in a previous article, even after winning the opening faceoff, players seemed slow to initiate the forecheck or engage defensively, resulting in very little time spent in Florida`s end.
They were in Florida’s half for just a moment before the play came back the other way, and that brief spell represented almost all the time the Leafs spent outside their own half of the ice during that entire period.
The positive for the Leafs is that the required adjustments are relatively simple. There are no intricate schemes to defeat this Panthers team or win this series. They aren`t suddenly going to become a possession-dominant team creating numerous uncontested chances through clever tactics. That`s not a viable option against this opponent.
Instead, they must directly confront Florida, play physically, and battle hard in front of the net for tips and rebounds. They need to establish and maintain pressure in Florida’s end, playing true, old-school playoff hockey.
The Panthers have been effective at keeping pucks in the offensive zone and shooting frequently, contributing to at least two, arguably three, seemingly “lucky” goals in Game 3.
If the Leafs hope to be on the favorable side of “luck” in Game 5, it must start with a significantly better first period driven by more direct and physical play. This should result in more time spent outside their own zone, improve the “Ice Tilt” metric in their favor, and give them a much stronger chance of securing the next victory in Toronto on Wednesday night.
