The NBA calendar is dotted with dates etched into collective memory – moments when fans recall exactly where they were and who they were with. LeBron James choosing Miami in 2010, Kevin Durant joining Golden State in 2016, Kobe Bryant`s 60-point finale, or even Luka Doncic`s recent move to the Lakers. These are singular events.
It`s exceedingly rare, however, to witness two such seismic shifts occur on the same day, merely hours apart. This is precisely why Monday, May 12, 2025, will be a date long remembered within NBA circles.
The evening delivered a one-two punch of unforeseen developments. First, the Dallas Mavericks, holding only the 11th-best odds, defied probability to secure the top overall selection in the draft lottery, earning the right to likely select Duke sensation Cooper Flagg. Shortly after, the defending champion Boston Celtics faced devastating news as their cornerstone, Jayson Tatum, was diagnosed with a torn Achilles tendon, sidelining him for the remainder of the current playoffs and expected to keep him out for the majority of the following season. As one Eastern Conference scout described it, it was truly a “shocking day all around.”
The consequences of this confluence of events are immense. The league already tilted significantly in favor of the Western Conference. The addition of another seemingly generational talent heading West, coupled with the Eastern Conference`s sole true superpower losing a prime top-5 player for nearly a year, transforms that tilt into a gaping chasm.
With the dust still settling from the Mavericks` improbable lottery win and Tatum`s franchise-altering injury, we consulted with league insiders to gauge the path forward: for the ever-growing conference imbalance, for an Eastern Conference race now thrown wide open, and for a Western Conference logjam that just welcomed another elite prospect.
League insiders on initial shock of Tatum`s injury
Few injuries carry the weight of the one Tatum has just sustained. At 27, holding the league`s richest contract, he was squarely entering his prime, anticipated to make his fourth consecutive All-NBA First Team. His career trajectory points towards all-time greatness, with a resume already solidifying Hall of Fame credentials.
He is the undisputed best player on the reigning NBA champions, a team that, despite trailing the New York Knicks entering Monday, remained the consensus favorite to emerge from the East.
“It`s a completely unforeseen scenario,” commented an executive from an East team. “This just doesn`t happen to a guy like that.”
While the Celtics faced looming luxury tax concerns, team president Brad Stevens and the front office were expected to navigate those financial pressures without sacrificing a core piece. And while projecting years into the NBA future is inherently risky, Boston appeared poised to contend at the top of the East for the foreseeable future.
“Your mind starts running through scenarios you never could`ve thought would happen,” the executive added, reflecting on Boston`s potential strategic shift. “They have a lot of thinking to do.”
Boston`s hopes of repeating as champions this season are all but extinguished; the Knicks have an opportunity to close out the series shortly. And with Tatum essentially sidelined for the entire 2025-26 season, it`s difficult to envision a scenario where the Celtics don`t make adjustments this summer, likely prioritizing cost savings and building towards another championship push in the 2026-27 season.
“This already felt like their last, best chance with this specific group before financial realities hit hard,” a Western Conference scout observed. “They`ll have to get creative now.”
A weak East race becomes weaker – and wide open
The landscape in the Eastern Conference was already in flux, with Milwaukee and Miami appearing to regress. Miami managed to scrape into the playoffs after a sub-.500 season following a trade involving Jimmy Butler, but was decisively eliminated in the first round, signaling significant work ahead to rejoin the East`s elite.
Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks are at a critical juncture after their own devastating injury setback, with Damian Lillard suffering an Achilles tear during their swift first-round exit. This, combined with three consecutive first-round defeats, casts a shadow of uncertainty over Giannis Antetokounmpo`s long-term future in Milwaukee.
Teams like the Indiana Pacers, who reached the Eastern Conference finals, are well-positioned to fill the void. Indiana has carved out a distinct identity with its fast-paced offense led by Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, boasting a young roster primarily under team control moving forward (though center Myles Turner is a key free agent this offseason).
The New York Knicks stand on the brink of their first conference finals appearance in 25 years, powered by a cohesive starting unit locked into contracts for the foreseeable future. And Cleveland, despite a season marred by injuries and their loss to the Pacers, will believe they can rebound behind their promising young core featuring Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen.
Other mid-tier Eastern teams might now sense a clearer opportunity to make bold moves to climb the standings, a strategy that previously might have been tempered by Boston`s perceived dominance.
“[Tatum`s injury] makes people start having different thoughts about going after it,” an East scout noted. “Questions arise like, `How close are you to making the Finals now?` and `What do other teams` windows look like?` All of that factors into decision-making.”
Could the Orlando Magic consider a significant trade to bolster their young core of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner? Perhaps the Philadelphia 76ers, beneficiaries of lottery luck landing the third pick, could return to contention with health, or Cade Cunningham and the improving Detroit Pistons might take another step forward.
Among all these possibilities, one conclusion is likely to be a dominant theme throughout the summer and next season.
“It makes the East worse, for sure,” the scout stated plainly. “That`s not a good look for the league overall.”
Draft lottery results create new questions about the system
Tatum`s injury momentarily overshadowed the absolute chaos that unfolded in Chicago a couple of hours prior. With Cooper Flagg widely considered the undisputed top prospect, anticipation surrounding his likely destination was high, reminiscent of the buzz around Victor Wembanyama in 2023.
However, the focus quickly shifted from Flagg`s landing spot to the sheer improbability of the Dallas Mavericks winning the top pick despite only a 1.8% chance. Adding to the drama, the San Antonio Spurs jumped to second and the Philadelphia 76ers leaped to third, making this draft lottery just the third in NBA history where the teams with the three worst records all failed to secure a top-three selection.
“This is really a `Careful what you wish for` moment for the league,” one executive remarked.
The last instance of this occurring was in 1993, when the Orlando Magic, having drafted Shaquille O`Neal first overall the year before, incredibly won the top pick again to draft Chris Webber. Although Webber was traded, Orlando`s back-to-back wins prompted the NBA to revise the lottery rules the following season.
Is there a possibility of rule changes this time? It seems improbable, given the current rules were implemented recently in 2019 after a prior attempt by Commissioner Adam Silver to change them didn`t pass. However, it raises legitimate questions about whether the stated objective of the changes – discouraging tanking – has been achieved, while perhaps unintentionally hindering the ability of the league`s worst teams to significantly improve through the draft.
Yet, some league insiders expressed satisfaction that the teams widely perceived as prioritizing draft positioning throughout the year – specifically the Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards – did not land at the very top.
“The good thing about [lottery night] is those teams didn`t get help,” a scout commented. “Tank all you want, but it doesn`t guarantee you anything.”
One executive even suggested to ESPN that if the league truly aimed to eliminate tanking, it should abolish the draft entirely, instead allowing teams to use salary cap space to sign incoming rookies. However, even this executive acknowledged the minimal realistic chance of such a radical change, citing numerous factors, including the crucial role of future draft picks as trade assets.
The league could also reasonably point to examples like Indiana and Denver, teams that have built successful, competitive rosters without ever holding a draft pick higher than seventh, as evidence that a top pick isn`t the sole path to establishing a contender, even for teams in smaller markets.
Draft lottery grows the conference divide
While Cooper Flagg potentially landing in Dallas stole the headlines, the combination of the Mavericks and Spurs securing the top two picks represents the latest infusion of elite talent into the Western Conference.
Since 2004, when Dwight Howard followed LeBron James to Eastern Conference teams as top picks, there has been a consistent flow of what are perceived as generational prospects landing out West. This list includes Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zion Williamson, Victor Wembanyama, and now potentially Flagg. This doesn`t even account for other high-impact players who landed in the West but weren`t initially viewed in the same `generational` light, such as Anthony Edwards or Luka Doncic.
“The West just keeps getting richer,” one executive lamented. “How come everybody keeps going to the West? For veteran players, you could rationalize it – better weather, California, better organizations. But they`ve also just gotten really, really lucky with the draft bounces.
“It seems like every time there`s one of these generational talents – Victor, Zion, Anthony Davis – they just end up in the West. It`s just bad luck… it is what it is.”
Although this summer is anticipated to be particularly active in terms of player movement, a significant number of Western Conference teams currently believe they possess the roster to contend for home-court advantage next season. This group includes the Thunder, Rockets, Lakers, Nuggets, Clippers, Timberwolves, Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns, the Mavericks (now with Flagg), and the Spurs (now with the #2 pick).
Conversely, the East features Cleveland, New York, and Indiana at the top tier, followed by considerable uncertainty surrounding Boston (due to Tatum`s injury) and Milwaukee (due to Lillard`s injury and Antetokounmpo`s potential future), and then significant questions about the long-term upside of every team beyond that. Imagine, for instance, the impact if Giannis Antetokounmpo were to end up joining a Western Conference team this summer?
“Cooper Flagg is heading to the West for the next 10 years, Giannis could potentially head West, Tatum is out of the picture for a year, and the Celtics likely are too,” a scout summarized.
“Good for East teams who are trying to make the Finals,” he concluded, with a touch of irony reflecting the reduced top-end competition they might now face.
