Matthew Tkachuk has established himself as a key figure in South Florida.
Just two years ago, a significant injury hampered Tkachuk during the Panthers` Stanley Cup Final loss to the Golden Knights. However, last season, he was instrumental in securing the franchise`s first championship, marking the culmination of the team`s transformation since his trade from Calgary in the summer of 2022.
Given that Tkachuk missed the final 25 regular-season games due to what appeared to be a groin injury sustained during the 4 Nations Face-Off, there`s considerable understanding if his performance isn`t at its peak. While he has accumulated 17 points in 19 playoff appearances, his presence during actual gameplay has been less prominent compared to his previous two playoff runs with the Panthers. (He does, however, continue to be a disruptive presence after the whistle.)
In Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final against the Oilers on Friday, Tkachuk notably failed to register a shot on goal. This marks the sixth time this spring he`s had zero shots, contrasting sharply with his previous two playoff years (2023 and 2024) where he had no shots in only two out of 44 total games.
After netting 17 goals, including six game-winning goals, over the Panthers` last two playoff runs, Tkachuk has scored five goals in 19 games this postseason. He also experienced a 10-game scoring drought that spanned from the first round into the beginning of the third round, tying for the fifth-longest goalless streak of his nine-year career across both the regular season and playoffs.
There has been a marked decrease in Tkachuk`s generation of scoring chances year over year. His average of 1.37 chances per game places him 103rd among 215 skaters with at least 100 minutes played in these playoffs, and eighth on the Panthers roster. In contrast, during the previous postseason, Tkachuk ranked 22nd among 193 qualified skaters, generating 2.63 chances per game. Although his average ice time (17:23) is down by over a minute from last year (18:30), he remains a key player on the Panthers` power play, averaging close to four minutes per game in that role.
Four of Tkachuk`s five goals this postseason originated from the inner slot area. However, he has recorded only eight shots on net from this prime scoring zone (0.42 per game). Over the 44 playoff games in the two preceding years, Tkachuk averaged 1.05 shots from the inner slot, resulting in 10 goals from that location.
Before the Stanley Cup Final began, Tkachuk commented to reporters, “If it goes in, it goes in. If it doesn’t, it doesn’t. I’ve never cared. Sometimes it’s nice to see it go in, but it is what it is. I’m not [Alex] Ovechkin. They are not always going to go in, but when they do, they feel nice.”
Another hallmark of Tkachuk`s game, his physical presence, has also been less prominent. According to NHL statistics, he is credited with 7.44 hits per 60 minutes, a decrease from 9.73 in the previous postseason. He registered three hits across the first two games of the Stanley Cup Final.
Despite a perceived reduction in Tkachuk`s individual offensive and physical impact, the Panthers have performed effectively during his time on the ice at 5-on-5, outscoring opponents 15-9 and achieving a 56.8 percent share of expected goals. Tkachuk was on the ice for three of Florida`s five 5-on-5 goals against Edmonton, including providing a screen in front of Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner during Dmitry Kulikov`s second-period goal on Friday.
