The Friday Four presents insights and details about captivating player narratives across the NHL. This week, we delve into:
• Is Tavares undervalued?
• Kucherov`s late-season surge for the Hart Trophy
• Eichel`s case for Selke consideration
• Can Saros bounce back next season?
John Tavares, Toronto Maple Leafs
It`s understandable if John Tavares feels somewhat unappreciated.
Tavares experienced changes like relinquishing the captaincy to Auston Matthews last summer, not being selected for Team Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off, and currently lacks a contract extension for the upcoming season. The 34-year-old has expressed his desire to remain with the Toronto Maple Leafs, although several factors are causing delays. The primary issue is Mitch Marner`s contract situation, which is likely putting a hold on cap-related decisions, potentially affecting the timing of extensions for Tavares and Matthew Knies.
Meanwhile, Tavares continues to perform impressively, on track to achieve his second-highest career goal count and maintain a point-per-game pace. Despite his age and a less productive season in 2023-24, which led some to consider him a declining asset, Tavares is demonstrating otherwise. In a season where Matthews has been absent for periods and not consistently at his best, Tavares`s consistent performance at centre has been crucial.
Adding to his value, Tavares has maintained his performance level late in the season, which can be a concern for players of his age. In fact, Tavares has elevated his play since the 4 Nations Face-Off break.
His faceoff win percentage remains among the league`s best at 58.2 percent. Notably, he won 13 out of 17 faceoffs against the Florida Panthers recently and scored a goal in what was arguably the most significant regular-season game for the Leafs since Tavares joined the team. While there have been discussions about moving Tavares down the lineup, his contribution this year clearly warrants a top-six role.
Tavares is having an exceptional contract year. While his next contract is expected to be less than his current $11 million, the question is how much lower. With the salary cap increasing substantially, and considering Tavares`s strong play, a figure around $7 million annually seems like a sensible decision for the Leafs. The contract term is a consideration, but there`s reason to believe Tavares will maintain his effectiveness with age. His game isn`t reliant on speed, and he excels near the net. He also appears dedicated to maintaining peak physical condition. While no contract is without risk, committing to Tavares in his mid-thirties seems like a relatively safe investment.
A key reason the Leafs haven`t been able to reduce Tavares`s role is the challenge of improving centre depth, a goal Toronto has pursued since trading Nazem Kadri. They haven`t secured a significant centre in free agency, and notable trade acquisitions haven`t consistently performed or stayed long-term. While signing a free agent centre in July is an option, is there a genuinely better alternative to Tavares available?
Sam Bennett is a different player type who could be effective, though he seems likely to agree to terms with the Panthers. Other potential free agents like Brock Nelson and Mikael Granlund don`t appear to be upgrades. Matt Duchene could be considered, but that might be a lateral move at best. Considering Tavares`s contributions and expected contract value, it`s difficult to see how Toronto could significantly improve their centre position through free agency this summer.
This also assumes that these free agents would choose Toronto as their destination. Despite the Leafs` storied history, attracting top free agents to Toronto has been infrequent. Steven Stamkos chose to stay in Tampa when he could have joined Toronto, Ryan O’Reilly left for Nashville a couple of years prior, and Brayden Schenn reportedly declined to waive his no-trade clause when the Leafs pursued him at the trade deadline.
Tavares, however, chose Toronto. He was a top-tier player when he committed his prime years to the Maple Leafs, a rare occurrence for the organization and the city. If the Leafs fail to demonstrate the same commitment to Tavares now, they might regret it.
Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning
While Nathan MacKinnon and Leon Draisaitl have been central figures in the Hart Trophy conversation, Nikita Kucherov`s name is gaining momentum, and rightfully so. Kucherov is now in contention for the league scoring lead, thanks to an impressive run of 19 points in 10 games, making the Tampa Bay Lightning a team everyone wants to avoid in the first round of playoffs.
Kucherov has had statistically better seasons, likely not reaching the 144 points that won him the Art Ross Trophy last year. However, this season highlights his crucial role. The Lightning`s window for Stanley Cup contention is still open, though narrower than before. They are increasingly reliant on their top players, putting more pressure on Kucherov to maintain his elite level even into his early thirties.
Tampa Bay also underwent a significant roster change by not re-signing their long-time captain, Steven Stamkos, last summer. Despite acquiring the skilled Jake Guentzel as a replacement, the transition was not guaranteed to be seamless. Stamkos was a key player on the power play and a frequent recipient of Kucherov`s passes, scoring 39 power-play points the previous season. Despite Stamkos`s absence as a one-timer option on the off-wing, the Lightning`s power play remains highly effective. Guentzel is tied for the league lead with 16 power-play goals, while Kucherov leads the NHL with 33 power-play assists.
Replacing Stamkos with Guentzel also made the Lightning younger. Coupled with forward additions at the trade deadline and Andrei Vasilevskiy`s resurgence, Tampa Bay looks more formidable than they have in a while. Knowing they have an elite talent like Kucherov, who consistently surpasses 100 points and elevates his linemates, makes it easier for the Lightning to continue trading future assets to remain competitive.
The race for the top spot in the Atlantic Division in the final weeks will be exciting. The second and third place teams will face challenging first-round matchups. While the Stanley Cup Playoffs are always tough, one thing is certain: no team wants to face Tampa Bay and Kucherov in the first round.
