Every NBA season offers its share of compelling storylines, but few capture the imagination quite like the ascent of an underdog into the MVP conversation. For years, this esteemed award has been the exclusive domain of league titans—players who routinely bend games to their will, deliver statistical anomalies, and lead their franchises to unprecedented heights. Yet, whispers from the Motor City suggest a new contender might be emerging from the shadows: Cade Cunningham.
Fresh off a career-defining season that saw him finally overcome early injury woes and propel a previously lottery-bound Detroit Pistons squad into the playoffs, Cunningham finds himself in an eerily familiar position to a certain reigning MVP just a couple of years prior. The question isn`t merely if he`s playing well, but whether his individual brilliance and team impact can genuinely challenge the league`s established royalty.
The Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Blueprint: A Path to Follow?
To understand the improbable optimism surrounding Cunningham, one must first look at the recent past. Rewind two seasons, and you`d find a young guard named Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) in a strikingly similar predicament. He, too, had just completed a breakout season, transforming the Oklahoma City Thunder from perennial cellar-dwellers into an unexpected playoff threat. His numbers were stellar, his health finally consistent, and the betting markets, ever eager for a fresh narrative, placed him among the top MVP odds-getters.
SGA`s trajectory from promising talent to legitimate MVP candidate (and eventual winner) serves as a potent blueprint. He finished second in the 2023-24 MVP race before clinching the award in 2024-25, proving that a meteoric rise, when fueled by individual excellence and surprising team success, is not merely fantasy. Now, with Cunningham mirroring that initial arc—leading the Pistons to the playoffs for the first time in his injury-truncated career and posting impressive individual statistics—the parallels are too strong to ignore. The betting markets have taken notice, giving Cunningham 60-1 odds, a `lottery ticket` value for those who believe in destiny, or perhaps, shrewd analytical foresight.
Gauging the Titans: The MVP Mountain Awaits
However, the path to MVP glory is not a leisurely stroll; it`s a treacherous climb up Mount Everest, often defended by three-headed statistical monsters. Cunningham`s competition is nothing short of legendary:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Reigning MVP): Averaging 32.7 PPG, 6.4 APG, and 5.0 RPG, SGA has redefined efficiency and clutch play, leading the NBA in scoring and his team to a 68-14 record. He`s the benchmark.
- Victor Wembanyama (The Unicorn): Perhaps the most hyped prospect in NBA history, Wembanyama is already living up to the impossible. Early season averages of 33.3 PPG, 13.3 RPG, and an astounding 6.0 BPG scream generational talent. If he maintains this unprecedented defensive dominance alongside offensive firepower, the award might already be his.
- Nikola Jokic (The Maestro): A three-time MVP and perennial top-2 finisher for five straight seasons, Jokic is a walking triple-double. Fresh off becoming the first center to average a triple-double for a full season (29.6 PPG, 12.7 RPG, 10.2 APG, 2.0 SPG), his all-around impact is peerless. He practically invented a new category of player.
Against these titans, Cunningham`s previous season averages of 26.1 PPG, 9.1 APG, and 6.1 RPG, while undeniably excellent for a young star, don`t quite reach the “video game numbers” status of his counterparts. For Cunningham to truly enter this rarefied air, a significant statistical leap is imperative. Historically, only three other players—Oscar Robertson, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden—have averaged 30+ points and 10+ assists in a season. If Cunningham can replicate his past year-over-year improvements (which have steadily increased from 2.5 PPG and 0.4 APG in his first leap to 3.4 PPG and 1.6 APG in his last), a further jump of 3.9 PPG and just 0.9 APG would place him among these legends. This is the statistical hurdle. A tall one, indeed.
The Pillars of Victory: Team Success and Impact
Individual statistics, no matter how dazzling, are rarely enough for an MVP campaign without corresponding team success. The award, after all, honors the “Most Valuable Player,” implying value to winning. Here, Cunningham faces another challenge. Last season, SGA boasted a staggering +17.5 points per 100 possessions (PP100) on-court/off-court differential, meaning the Thunder were dramatically better with him playing. Jokic, in his MVP seasons, frequently posted differentials exceeding +16 PP100, reaching +19.0 PP100 last season.
Cunningham`s on/off +/- last season was a modest +3.4 PP100. While a positive number is good, especially for a team that dramatically improved from 14-68 to 44-38, it pales in comparison to the league`s true difference-makers. To be a serious MVP candidate, Cunningham will need to elevate this metric into double digits. More critically, the Pistons must transition from a solid playoff team to a genuine Eastern Conference powerhouse, ideally securing 55-60 wins.
The Eastern Conference Wildcard: An Unexpected Opening?
The Eastern Conference landscape might offer a glimmer of hope. With two of the East`s most dominant players, Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton, sidelined with injuries (as projected in this future season), the conference race is potentially wide open. If the Pistons can capitalize on this vacuum, surging from a respectable fifth seed to the top spot, Cunningham’s MVP narrative would gain immense traction. Sometimes, opportunity knocks when others are recuperating.
The Verdict: A Long Shot, But an Intriguing One
Cade Cunningham`s MVP quest is undoubtedly an uphill battle, fraught with statistical mountains to climb and established giants to overcome. His current production, while impressive, requires a quantum leap to compete with the likes of Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama, and Jokic. He needs to transform his team`s statistical impact from `not bad` to `indispensable` and guide them to a record that turns heads across the league.
Yet, the narrative of a young star mirroring an MVP`s rise, coupled with unforeseen circumstances creating an opening in his conference, makes him an exceptionally intriguing, albeit long-shot, candidate. Betting on Cunningham at 60-1 odds isn`t just a wager; it`s an investment in a compelling storyline, a belief in a player`s exponential growth, and an acknowledgment that in the unpredictable theater of the NBA, the dark horse occasionally gallops to victory. While a top-5 finish in MVP voting might be a more realistic immediate goal, the very conversation about Cade Cunningham as an MVP candidate signals a new era for Detroit basketball and a testament to his burgeoning star power.
