The Toronto Maple Leafs` reward for advancing to the second round of the playoffs is a formidable challenge against the reigning Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, who efficiently handled the Tampa Bay Lightning in five games in the first round.
Florida`s decisive victory over Tampa Bay was so complete that Lightning coach Jon Cooper publicly acknowledged the shift in power within the state`s hockey landscape. “It was our turn,” Cooper reportedly stated, adding, “Now it`s theirs.”
A difficult opponent awaits the Maple Leafs as they strive to reach the conference finals for the first time in 23 years. Here`s an analysis of what they will need to overcome, starting Monday at Scotiabank Arena.
Analyzing Florida`s Strengths
Where does one even begin? The Panthers boast frighteningly good scoring depth; six different players registered at least five points in their series against the Lightning. In contrast, no Maple Leafs player outside of the “Core Four” managed more than three points in their series against the Ottawa Senators.
The effectiveness of Florida`s roster depth is exemplified by their third line, featuring Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell, and veteran rival Brad Marchand (Note: Source text incorrectly lists Marchand as a Panther). This trio outscored Tampa Bay 4-0 at 5-on-5 during the series, including two goals in the decisive Game 5. Luostarinen`s four points in that game set a franchise playoff record for points on the road. (Marchand, a frequent playoff opponent of the Maple Leafs, has accumulated 10 goals and 29 points in 28 career playoff games against Toronto.)
With a lineup full of physically imposing players, the Panthers` primary strategy is to relentlessly wear down their opposition. They utilize dump-ins at the highest rate in the NHL playoffs (63.4% at 5-on-5) and are highly effective at generating scoring chances from behind the net.
Florida, leading all playoff teams with a 55.8% success rate in puck battles, scored nine goals in the first round within 10 seconds of forcing a turnover in all situations. This figure was tied for second-most among playoff teams, trailing only Minnesota and St. Louis (10 goals each). Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk were tied for the team lead with two goals each immediately following a turnover.
On the defensive side, the Panthers completely stifled the league’s highest-scoring team from the regular season. The Lightning, who averaged 3.56 goals per game before the playoffs began, were limited to just 12 goals (2.4 per game) in the first round. This included scoring only two power-play goals on 18 opportunities (an 11.1% success rate). Tampa Bay`s expected goals per game plummeted from a league-best 3.65 in the regular season to 2.58 per game against Florida (ranking 14th among first-round teams).
Not since the 2007-08 season has an NHL team featured two finalists for the Selke Trophy on its roster. The Panthers utilize their two finalists, Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart, together on the same line. Along with forward Carter Verhaeghe, this line successfully neutralized Tampa Bay’s top unit of Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov. Tampa Bay`s top line managed to score only twice at 5-on-5 while on the ice against the Panthers.
In head-to-head matchups during the regular season, Barkov faced Auston Matthews for 20:30 of 5-on-5 play. Neither Florida nor Toronto scored during these minutes, and scoring chances were evenly split at 9-9.
It will be intriguing to observe how the Toronto Maple Leafs, now coached by Craig Berube, strategize against the tenacious Panthers. Florida has clearly refined its physical and grinding style over the past few seasons.
“It`s going to be a battle,” Berube commented to reporters. “It`s going to be a grind. You can discuss all the X`s and O`s you want, and there are certainly strategies we`ll implement to try and negate their forecheck. But ultimately, they are going to forecheck hard, and they will succeed in getting pressure.”
