Here are some thoughts on the Toronto Maple Leafs` performance through Game 4 of their second-round series against the Florida Panthers, with the series tied 2-2.

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Auston Matthews` Scoring Drought: Not Just About Shot Accuracy

Little else matters if Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner cannot generate more offense. Besides the unexpected strong play from Joseph Woll, everything else is secondary.

While there`s concern about Auston Matthews` scoring, focusing solely on missed shots might be misleading. Although his missed net total is slightly higher in the playoffs, he takes many shots (second only to MacKinnon among top players) and often aims for the corners. High shot totals mean more opportunities, and some misses are inevitable. The issue isn`t necessarily poor aim, but perhaps needing to rush shots more often because he`s not getting to his preferred spots effectively.

Ultimately, the Leafs` star center isn`t asserting himself as needed. He appears less engaged, standing rather than skating, seemingly waiting for plays to happen instead of driving them. He isn`t reaching his usual top speed.

This dip in skating activity is a playoff trend. His top speed percentile ranking over the last three years (regular season vs. playoffs):

2024-25: 61st (Regular Season) / Below 50th (Playoffs)
2023-24: 63rd (Regular Season) / Below 50th (Playoffs)
2022-23: 64th (Regular Season) / 57th (Playoffs)

Reduced skating impacts his forechecking. His hits per 60 minutes are down this postseason (around 7.00) compared to previous playoff runs (never below 9.00). He needs to increase his intensity, which could positively impact his shooting and overall game.

An example highlights this lack of intensity. Winning the opening faceoff in a critical road game should set the tone. Florida is defensively structured. You can`t skate through them, so dumping the puck is necessary. However, the forecheck wasn`t effective. Forwards weren`t attacking with speed; Matthews wasn`t driving the net, Marner lacked acceleration through the neutral zone, and Knies was out of sync. The resulting dumped puck was easily recovered by Florida`s defense.

This ineffective forecheck early on unfortunately mirrored the game`s overall passive approach. This passive approach seems characteristic of Matthews` game currently. He doesn`t appear injured but seems bogged down, avoiding high-traffic areas. Against a team like Florida on the road, he needs to understand aggression is key.

Florida`s defensive system challenges top players (like how it limited McDavid last year). While it`s difficult, Matthews, a star player who helped get the team this far, must elevate his compete level and drive.

Facing Florida`s Structure: The Necessity of Dump and Chase

Expanding on that point, Florida dictates the pace of the series defensively. They have consistently shut down opponents in the playoffs, winning eight of their last nine series by preventing teams from finding offensive solutions. Their defensive structure in Game 4 was particularly impressive.

The Leafs find it difficult to win puck battles after dumping the puck, leading them to try carrying it through the neutral zone when trailing. However, against Florida`s disciplined system, this often results in turnovers or failed entries. So, what adjustments can be made?

Leveraging Rush Play: A Potential Advantage for the Leafs

Florida has surprisingly allowed many breakaways and odd-man rushes in recent seasons, a weakness the Leafs have exploited effectively. Toronto holds a 19-13 advantage in odd-man rushes this series, which is uncharacteristic for them.

While coaches emphasize defensive responsibility, simply `sticking with it` hasn`t generated offense against Florida at their best. The Leafs do need defensive soundness, but given their tendency to flip pucks on breakouts, it`s acceptable for forwards to anticipate and leave the zone slightly earlier.

Granting license to certain players (like Nylander, Knies, Marner, Domi, McMann) to push for offense shouldn`t drastically hurt defensively, as Florida isn`t an overwhelming offensive threat. The potential rewards are significant: not only scoring chances but also potentially forcing Florida`s defense to play deeper, easing the Leafs` breakouts. Easier breakouts would certainly benefit the Leafs.

The Impact of Home Ice Matchups

Home ice advantages, particularly in line matching, are significant, arguably more so for Florida. Matthews` line had effectively handled Barkov`s line early in the series (controlling expected goals and actual scoring), prompting Paul Maurice to shift Barkov to face Nylander`s group, which had been successful. It was a logical adjustment.

This adjustment favored the Panthers, leading to Nylander`s line struggling in Game 4, while Matthews and Marner couldn`t take advantage of Florida`s second line and defense pair (Seth Jones and Niko Mikkola). For Game 5 back in Toronto, expect the Leafs to likely return to matching Matthews against Barkov, a `power-on-power` approach that previously allowed the Leafs` second line more favorable matchups.

Considering Lineup Adjustments

Yes, it seems like the time for changes. David Kampf, a valuable player who saw significant ice time in previous playoff success, isn`t a marginal player. Nick Robertson provides energy and offensive potential. Given that other players, like Calle Jarnkrok, aren`t consistently impactful, the current lineup shouldn`t be considered fixed.

Crucially, the Leafs possess depth with 14 NHL-capable forwards. This provides flexibility to introduce fresh players when the team needs a spark.

Hesitation might stem from the extra rest day before the next game, implying players should naturally have more energy. Also, the current lineup secured wins in Toronto, proving it can be effective. It`s a tough decision, but if the goal is a long playoff run, better utilizing the full forward group and distributing the workload could be beneficial.