- 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs
Let`s get straight to the point. Here’s an analysis of which teams in the Eastern Conference have advantages and disadvantages as they enter Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
TORONTO vs. OTTAWA
Season series: The Senators won all three games: 3-0, 2-1, and 4-2. The Maple Leafs scored only three goals in those three games, which is concerning for a team that has struggled offensively in the playoffs.
The breakdown: On paper, Toronto appears to be the stronger team. However, games aren`t played on paper.
Statistically, the Maple Leafs score more goals than Ottawa, although this is largely due to high shooting percentages rather than creating significantly more chances. They also have better numbers in goals against per game, power play efficiency, penalty kill, and save percentage. Furthermore, Toronto boasts the three highest-scoring forwards in this matchup, even without considering John Tavares, who has scored nine more goals than Ottawa`s top scorer.
However, the Senators should not be underestimated. Players like Brady Tkachuk, Ridley Greig, David Perron, and Nick Cousins will make life difficult for their opponents. Ottawa`s offensive style is also more suited for playoff hockey, as they generate a lot of scoring chances around the net.
A key factor will be Jake Sanderson, although historically, Toronto has struggled against teams with large, mobile defensemen like Aaron Ekblad, Victor Hedman, and Brandon Carlo. If Sanderson and Thomas Chabot can effectively move the puck out of their zone, they could frustrate Toronto`s forwards. Conversely, Toronto’s forwards should be able to exploit their size and strength advantage against Ottawa’s slightly built defensemen (excluding their more physical bottom pairing).
If Toronto`s defense is healthy, Ottawa will have difficulty scoring. This brings us to goaltending. Toronto has two inexperienced playoff goalies, while Ottawa has a proven regular-season goalie with limited playoff experience. It’s hard to say which team has the advantage in net.
Ottawa’s biggest advantage might be Brady Tkachuk. He is a disruptive force who can change the momentum of a game and draw Toronto into a physical, uncomfortable style of play.
Prediction: Toronto in 6 games
A healthy Toronto defense should be able to contain Ottawa’s offense. Toronto’s past playoff failures have stemmed from a lack of scoring from their top players, but Ottawa may not have the defensive strength of previous teams that have defeated Toronto. This could be the year Toronto finally advances.
