Aljamain Sterling offered his perspective on the highly anticipated lightweight title bout between Charles Oliveira and Ilia Topuria, scheduled for UFC 317 on June 28th. Sterling holds respect for Topuria`s punching power and suggests that Oliveira should approach this aspect with caution.
Oliveira, who was once criticized for faltering under pressure, has dramatically transformed into a formidable world champion known for his ability to withstand heavy shots and respond with devastating offense, often leading to spectacular finishes and fight bonuses.
However, as Oliveira prepares to challenge for the lightweight belt vacated by Islam Makhachev (with Topuria also vacating the featherweight title for this opportunity), Sterling questions whether relying on his often-tested chin and `berserker` approach is the wisest strategy against Topuria.
“This situation is intriguing because Oliveira gets dropped in almost every single fight,” Sterling stated on The Weekly Scraps podcast. “I`d say that`s been the case in his last eight fights. Knowing that, we also know Ilia Topuria possesses significant power. We saw Topuria get dropped by Jai Herbert before coming back to win; that was his first fight at 155 pounds. He claims to feel better and hit harder at this weight class. We already knew he hit hard at 145. How will that power translate at 155, and if he can land on Charles the way he connects with others, I believe it will be a difficult night, and Ilia could become a two-division champion.”
Conversely, Sterling highlighted the grappling dimension. “On the other hand, in the grappling department, we haven`t seen anyone truly force the grappling issue against Ilia. I wonder if `do Bronx` will try to implement that strategy to potentially tire him out and reduce the effectiveness of his punches. That`s the major unknown.”
Oliveira is widely regarded as one of MMA`s most dangerous grapplers, holding a UFC record with 16 victories by submission. He is also expected to have a size advantage over Topuria, adding another layer of complexity to their close-range exchanges.
Topuria, primarily known for his striking, has demonstrated capable wrestling both offensively and defensively. He claimed the featherweight title by knocking out Alexander Volkanovski, becoming the first fighter to defeat Volkanovski at 145 pounds, and he was also the first to knock out Max Holloway.
Given Topuria`s history of defeating established legends, Sterling pondered his potential trajectory in the sport`s all-time rankings.
“It`s difficult to dismiss `do Bronx`,” Sterling admitted. “I still believe he`s capable. But then again, I said the same about Max and Volk – and I`m not saying I predicted them to win against Ilia – but you think they are still `them,` and then Ilia goes and does what he did, and you start wondering, `Damn… who can actually stop this guy?`”
Oliveira`s recent record stands at 2-2 in his last four bouts, a contrast to his impressive run of 11 consecutive victories prior to this stretch in what is considered MMA`s deepest division. Topuria, on the other hand, remains undefeated in his 16 professional fights.
The outcome of their matchup may hinge on which fighter successfully imposes their strongest discipline. Sterling anticipates this question potentially lingering for the duration of the fight, however long it lasts.
“I`m slightly leaning towards Ilia,” Sterling concluded. “I think that`s the smart bet. Of course, Oliveira can win, especially if he can establish his grappling early. Maybe he`ll surprise us and show that Ilia can get tired, potentially taking some of the sting off his punches. But then, what does that look like for Oliveira in the later rounds?”
“Can he maintain his defense and properly protect himself, particularly if he doesn`t secure an early finish? And how will he even get the takedown? He needs to close the distance to initiate a takedown against a shorter opponent. How do you achieve that? You have to get underneath him. It`s a challenging task.”
