In the years since 2018, predicting the first overall selection in the NHL Draft has often been straightforward, with a consensus top prospect emerging well before the lottery results were known. Players like Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Hughes, Alexis Lafreniere, and Owen Power were widely recognized as the clear No. 1 picks for their respective draft classes.
The 2022 draft represented a departure from this pattern. While center Shane Wright was the leading candidate for the top spot for much of the season, this projection became less certain as the draft approached. On draft day, the Montreal Canadiens opted for winger Juraj Slafkovsky as the first selection, a move that surprised many and saw Wright fall to the fourth pick, ultimately taken by Seattle.
Last year`s lottery followed a more predictable script, with the San Jose Sharks holding the highest probability and successfully winning the top pick, which they used to select Macklin Celebrini. However, the 2025 draft lottery brought significant unexpected results. The New York Islanders made a remarkable ten-spot leap to claim the first overall pick. Adding to the shake-up, the team now based in Utah also moved up ten positions, jumping from 14th to fourth, dramatically altering the early draft order.
The Islanders` unexpected win of the first overall pick, described by their director of scouting Ken Morrow as a moment where “the hockey gods smiled on us,” shifts the focus to which player they will choose. This year`s draft class does not feature a single, universally agreed-upon top prospect, making the decision at number one a multi-player consideration.
Among the leading candidates for the top selection is defenseman Matthew Schaefer from the OHL`s Erie Otters, despite his season being impacted by injuries. Forward Michael Misa of the OHL`s Saginaw Spirit is also strongly in the mix, having posted an impressive 62 goals and 134 points this season after moving to center. James Hagens, a freshman at Boston College, remains a contender after performing at a point-per-game pace as one of the youngest players in the NCAA, although his size is sometimes noted as a factor. Additionally, Anton Frondell and Caleb Desnoyers are names that are expected to be seriously evaluated by teams picking high in the draft.
Following the outcome of tonight`s draft lottery drawing, we present the initial post-lottery mock draft.
