By Neil Paine
The 2024-25 NBA season felt like a period of transition for the league, presenting various potential paths forward.
In a league often characterized by dynasties, the recent six seasons saw six different champions, a rarity in NBA history. This past season provided conflicting signals about the future: would parity continue, would dominant teams reappear, or would something entirely new emerge?
For example, the regular season was top-heavy. The Oklahoma City Thunder, with the best net rating (+12.8), achieved the second-highest figure since the 1976 NBA-ABA merger, surpassed only by the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics also posted elite net ratings (+9.5 each), ranking among the top 20 in modern history. This suggests a lack of parity, yet two of these teams (OKC and Cleveland) could contribute to an unprecedented streak of seven different champions in seven years.
The Thunder are also one of the league`s youngest squads (average age 24.8). A win for them could signal the end of the recent parity, potentially starting a new dominant era after the possible seven-year streak of different champions. Conversely, a Celtics victory would mark the first back-to-back titles since the 2016-18 Golden State Warriors dynasty.
Thus, even focusing on the three strongest regular-season teams, this season`s outcome could significantly shape the NBA`s future trajectory, depending on the eventual champion.
This doesn`t even include other teams with a lesser but still present chance of winning the 2024-25 title, each offering unique insights into the league`s potential direction.
Let`s explore the key narratives likely to emerge for each team with at least a 1% chance (based on my odds forecast) if they hoist the Larry O`Brien Trophy in June.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The dominant narrative: Hope you enjoyed the era of diverse champions — a dynasty has just begun.
As previously mentioned, the Thunder could technically extend the league’s streak of different champions to seven consecutive seasons, dating back to Toronto`s win in 2018-19. This would be the first time ever with seven unique champions in a seven-year span, surely one of the league`s strangest eras. Yet, an OKC win would likely shift the focus from recent parity to the start of a potential Thunder dynasty.
Besides their historic net rating, they boast the presumptive league MVP (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) and a young core (Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Isaiah Hartenstein) all 26 or younger. Oklahoma City would validate building a championship contender through years of careful asset accumulation, scouting, drafting, and development, implying their reign is just starting.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: High
The Thunder surpassed the Celtics in Finals betting odds late in the season and have the highest probability to win (43%) according to my model. While not a guarantee, their lack of playoff experience, a concern last year, is less of an issue now.
Boston Celtics
The dominant narrative: Back-to-back championships are making a comeback.
From 1986-87 to 2017-18, 21 of 32 NBA championships (66%) were won as part of a multiyear run. Consecutive titles were largely the norm. It`s been surprising to see no back-to-back winners in the last six postseasons, the longest such gap since 2002-08. A Celtics repeat would end this trend, giving the NBA`s most decorated franchise its first consecutive titles since 1967-69. Dynasty talk would certainly increase, given Boston`s consistent deep playoff runs and a core that has achieved a high net rating in back-to-back seasons.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: High
Alongside Oklahoma City, Boston is the most likely winner, with a 31% chance in my forecast. They are the defending champions, possess the most playoff experience among contenders, and likely have the most complete seven-man rotation.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The dominant narrative: Reports of parity`s demise are greatly exaggerated.
While the Celtics could decisively end the era of parity and the Thunder might extend it only before starting their own prolonged run, the Cavaliers are the potential champion most likely to bridge to even more diverse winners in the future.
Donovan Mitchell is committed for at least two more seasons after 2024-25, as are Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, and Darius Garland. However, the Cavs are older than OKC (average age 26.6) and lack the sustained elite track record of the Celtics or Thunder (they were 13th in net rating and lost in the second round last year). Even if Cleveland wins this year, they probably wouldn`t be favorites for 2026, potentially setting up an unprecedented streak of at least eight different champions in as many seasons.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: Moderate
Although they won 64 games, second only to Oklahoma City (68) in the regular season, the Cavs` championship probability is significantly below the Thunder and Celtics, but well above other contenders. This gives them a realistic chance this season, but they aren`t strong enough favorites to be likely repeat candidates.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The dominant narrative: The victory of astute team-building.
Minnesota winning would also extend the streak of different champions to seven. They currently have a 36-year title drought, tied for the sixth-longest among teams that have never won. A Wolves victory would inspire winless franchises hoping to break through after decades.
They would also be praised for their bold roster moves paying off. Just five years ago, Minnesota was 19-45 with Karl-Anthony Towns and little else. After drafting Anthony Edwards No. 1 in 2020, the team, shaped by president Tim Connelly, made trades for Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Mike Conley. Though some moves were questioned, they successfully built a highly effective roster that ranked top eight in both offense and defense.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: Moderate
Minnesota pulled off a first-round upset and might be favored in the second round. Any team with a real path to the conference finals has a decent chance for their narrative to gain traction, but the Thunder remain heavy favorites in the West.
Golden State Warriors
The dominant narrative: The championship window remains open for an all-time legend.
Fitting for a dynasty often counted out, the Stephen Curry-era Warriors have repeatedly defied expectations. At 37, Curry`s skills seem timeless, and as long as that holds true, Golden State always has a chance. If they win in 2025, it would be a personal triumph for Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler III, known for playing with a chip on their shoulder. It would also teach front offices employing legends like Curry: never give up on them. Reloading around them can always lead to another special run.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: Moderate to Low
Despite Curry`s greatness, the Warriors face a tough path through the West, likely facing Minnesota and then Oklahoma City if they advance. Add in Butler`s health status – he returned in Game 4 after a pelvis contusion but needs to be 100% – and Golden State has an uphill battle for another title this postseason. However, Curry keeps their chances alive.
Denver Nuggets
The dominant narrative: Sometimes, last-minute changes are necessary.
If the Nuggets win, it would be a testament to Nikola Jokić`s all-time greatness, carrying this group to a championship. However, it would offer even greater validation to Denver ownership for the unprecedented decision to fire former title-winning coach Michael Malone just days before the playoffs. Malone had consistent success, and despite reported tension with the GM, the team was still top 10 in net rating. While teams usually avoid rash moves before the postseason, the Nuggets didn`t. A subsequent title run would give other teams permission to make drastic changes whenever they feel it`s needed, regardless of performance or season timing.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: Very Low
The Nuggets are in a tough first-round series and have been outscored significantly. Even if they advance, they face Oklahoma City. We`ll never know if keeping Malone would have doomed them (it likely would have), but this event probably won`t be cited in defenses of firing coaches in early-to-mid April.
Indiana Pacers
The dominant narrative: (Decent) defense wins championships.
As one of two remaining former ABA teams without an NBA title (the other being the Nets), and the one with more playoff wins but fewer Finals appearances, a Pacers championship would address the franchise`s history of being good but not quite good enough. Since the merger, only the Suns and Jazz have more playoff wins without a title.
For teams looking to copy their success, Indiana`s story would also be about improved balance. Last season, they were one of the most lopsided teams ever, ranking 2nd in offense but 24th in defense. While good enough for the East finals, they sought better balance this season and achieved it, dropping slightly to 9th offensively but improving significantly to 13th defensively. If being above-average on both ends is better than being elite on one and poor on the other, the Pacers would showcase how shifting towards balance can be the final piece for a championship.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: Low
The Pacers handled Milwaukee in the first round, but this leads to a second-round matchup with the strong Cavaliers, and likely the even stronger Celtics in the East Finals, limiting their overall odds.
New York Knicks
The dominant narrative: New York reclaims its status as the basketball Mecca.
Many stories would emerge if the 2024-25 Knicks won the title. One might credit coach Tom Thibodeau for playing his core starters (Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart) astronomical minutes, often a recipe for playoff fatigue. Another would focus on how this core was assembled, the opposite of a homegrown success story.
But in the broader view, a Knicks win would cement New York City as the basketball capital it often believes itself to be, regardless of recent reality. Roughly six months after the WNBA`s Liberty won NYC`s first major pro sports title since 2011, a Knicks win would make New York the undisputed center of the hoops universe again.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: Low
As excited as New York gets for the Knicks, they still need to finish their current series, then likely face the Celtics, and then probably the Cavs – or perhaps worse, the Pacers, who have matched up well against the Knicks.
LA Clippers
The dominant narrative: Everyone laughed — but who`s laughing now?
The Kawhi Leonard-Paul George pairing, formed in 2019, was expected to finally end the franchise`s history of playoff disappointment. Instead, injuries limited their time together, and they only advanced past the second round once, never reaching the Finals. Adding James Harden in 2023 was mocked as bringing in another player unreliable in the playoffs. Then George left for Philadelphia after another first-round loss.
The resulting Clippers seemed lost, especially after Leonard was injured again. But it`s getting harder to mock them with vintage Playoff Kawhi`s resurgence and the rest of the team clicking. A title would be the ultimate revenge against the league for writing them off.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: Low
Though the Clippers are holding their own against Denver with Leonard playing exceptionally, they must survive a seven-game series, and a rested Thunder team awaits the winner. The basketball world probably won`t have to process the shocking reality of a Clippers title this summer. (Probably.)
Houston Rockets
The dominant narrative: A blueprint for rebuilding after tanking exists.
Similar to the Wolves and Knicks, a main storyline for a Rockets championship would be the team-building success of GM Rafael Stone and the front office.
A few years ago, the Rockets were one of the league`s most chaotic teams – the youngest, sloppiest, and least competitive after the Harden era. But instead of a slow rebuild, Houston rapidly returned to respectability by blending savvy veterans (Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams) with a defensive-minded coach (Ime Udoka) and a quickly improving young core (Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr.).
The result was a rare method for exiting a tank: Houston built the league`s fourth-best defense and developed a strong young foundation alongside veteran leadership. Winning a championship would validate their bold strategy – that the path back to contention can be accelerated with the right mix of toughness, coaching, and player development.
Chance of us having to hear this ad nauseam: Very Low… For Now
Before the Rockets can even consider the story of their championship build, they must mount a comeback against Curry and the Warriors – no easy task. But the potential exists that we will hear a version of this story in future seasons, given the Rockets` potential.
