2025 NBA Draft: Top 30 Prospect Projections

1. Cooper Flagg, F, Duke

The central discussion surrounding Flagg isn`t about whether he`s the top prospect in this year`s class, but rather his historical standing. Few players have rated higher than Flagg by this consensus model, placing him in conversation with some of the most impactful number one picks of the past. Uniquely in this draft class, Flagg does not project statistically below the average NBA-bound college prospect in any of the key performance indicators used by the model.

2. Kon Knueppel, G/F, Duke

Having Flagg`s teammate ranked immediately after him might be a surprise to some. Based purely on college performance, Knueppel would likely fall slightly, closer to his top 100 ranking at number 9.

Nonetheless, Knueppel exhibited the strongest projection among all prospects who participated in the Nike EYBL AAU competition in either 2022 or 2023. His .642 true shooting percentage on a 35% usage rate in 2023 suggests a greater capacity for shot creation than observed alongside other talented players at Duke.

3. VJ Edgecombe, SG, Baylor

Alongside Flagg, Edgecombe is another prospect in this draft class ranked in the top five by both the statistical model and the top 100, indicating a strong overall consensus. While his offensive efficiency at Baylor was moderate (50% on 2s, 34% on 3s), his contributions across the box score were significant. Edgecombe projects to perform at least 15% better than the typical NBA-bound college shooting guard in key defensive metrics like rebound, block, and steal rates. This defensive foundation provides a high floor, while his development as a shooter will be crucial for reaching his full potential.

4. Dylan Harper, G, Rutgers

Harper presents a contrast to Knueppel. He had a more impactful college freshman season, averaging 19.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, and 4.0 APG with solid efficiency given his substantial role in the Rutgers offense (29% usage rate). However, his performance in EYBL play was less effective, leading the model to place Knueppel slightly ahead when incorporating those stats. Harper particularly stood out as a finisher in college, converting 57% of his 2-point attempts, the highest rate among perimeter one-and-done prospects.

5. Isaiah Evans, SG, Duke

This projection might seem surprising. Evans averaged only 13.8 minutes per game coming off the bench for Duke, yet the model highlights his potential as a shooter. This isn`t primarily based on his 42% 3-point accuracy, as the small sample size leads to significant regression towards the mean in his NBA projection. However, his rate of 12 3-point attempts per 40 minutes gives him the highest projected shooting volume of any one-and-done player in the model`s database. Given his limited contributions beyond shooting, Evans will need to be exceptionally good in that area to become a regular NBA rotation player. Ideally, he might return for a larger sophomore role to provide more data.

6. Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma

Fears was a key offensive force at Oklahoma, leading all major-conference freshmen in usage rate at 31.5%. His ability to score with average efficiency despite this high volume was notable. However, to earn a comparable role in the NBA, Fears must improve his 3-point shooting from 28%. A positive sign is his 85% free throw accuracy, which is often a good indicator for future NBA 3-point success.

7. Ace Bailey, PF, Rutgers

While many top prospects rated well statistically, Bailey was an exception. His shotmaking ability didn`t translate into high efficiency, largely due to his challenging shot selection. According to CBBAnalytics.com, 36% of Bailey`s shot attempts were non-paint 2-pointers, placing him in the 99th percentile nationally. Although he made a reasonable 43% of these, it`s significantly less valuable than the effective 52% he shot from beyond the arc when accounting for the higher point value. With the right team and system, Bailey could develop into an offensive playmaker, but a poor fit might struggle to maximize his skills.

8. Noa Essengue, PF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)

Now entering lottery consideration, Essengue might not be considered a complete sleeper, but his position in the stats-only projection is higher than his top 100 ranking, marking him as the leading international prospect in the draft by this metric. Competing in the tough EuroCup, Essengue has averaged 14.4 PPG and 5.3 RPG in just 23.7 MPG, shooting an impressive 66% on 2-point attempts against significantly older competition. He won`t turn 19 until December, making him the second-youngest prospect in the top 100, behind only Flagg.

9. Collin Murray-Boyles, PF, South Carolina

Murray-Boyles` performance in his second year at South Carolina was too impactful for scouts to overlook. Playing in the nation`s strongest conference, he averaged 16.8 PPG and 8.3 RPG, achieving the highest effective field goal percentage (60%) in the SEC. At 6-foot-7, he is undersized for a traditional big man, but he contributed across multiple statistical categories, showing seven areas of strength according to the model – more than any other prospect, just surpassing Flagg`s six.

10. Kasparas Jakucionis, PG, Illinois

Jakucionis demonstrates several promising offensive traits. He`s a determined finisher, converting 56% of his 2-point attempts, which is excellent for a guard. His 84.5% free throw accuracy suggests potential for improvement in his 3-point shooting (32% at Illinois) to complement his playmaking skills. The primary concern lies on the defensive end, where Jakucionis has a below-average steal rate for a guard and recorded only nine blocks throughout the season.

11. Egor Demin, PG, BYU

Demin`s combination of court vision and size (6-foot-9) enables him to create passing angles effectively, resulting in the third-best assist projection among top 100 prospects. His size also contributes to his strong finishing ability from the backcourt, where he made 55% of his 2-point attempts. However, optimism about his shooting is lower; he shot just 27% from the college 3-point line and was just under 70% at the free throw line.

12. Tre Johnson, SG, Texas

Johnson`s style of high-volume scoring is a skill set that often rates lower in statistical projections like this. Usage rate is his only area of projected strength, while he ranks significantly below average in rebounding, steals, and blocks for his position. His potential hinges on how efficiently he can score. He was acceptable at the college level partly thanks to 40% 3-point shooting but was less effective in EYBL play, shooting just 34% from three in the 2023 campaign.

13. Miles Byrd, SG, San Diego State

Byrd is the top-rated sleeper outside the first round of the top 100 according to this model, rating highly due to his unusual combination of steal and block rates for a guard. In the last decade, very few draft picks have projected for at least two steals per 100 plays and a 2% block rate against opponent 2-point attempts. Although Byrd has only shot 30% from the college 3-point line, his 83% free throw accuracy suggests he could develop enough shooting consistency to remain on the court, primarily valued for his defense.

14. Jase Richardson, G, Michigan State

The son of former NBA guard Jason Richardson, Jase improved throughout his freshman season, showing strong statistical signs. He was second only to Flagg among qualifying first-year players in Stathead.com`s box plus-minus metric. His rating in the stats-only model is slightly lower, partly because his strong 41% college 3-point shooting is regressed to the mean, and he was less effective in the 2023 EYBL (shooting 33% from three). Nevertheless, Richardson appears to be solid value towards the end of the lottery.

15. Asa Newell, PF, Georgia

Playing both forward positions, Newell was productive as a freshman, averaging 15.4 PPG on 63% 2-point shooting and 6.9 RPG. His long-term NBA position is still uncertain; he projects as a below-average shot blocker for a center but needs to develop the shooting skills required for a power forward role. He made only 29% of his college 3-point attempts at low volume but was more accurate from the free throw line (75%).

16. Boogie Fland, PG, Arkansas

As a freshman at Arkansas, Fland struggled with efficiency, shooting just 41% on 2-point attempts and not well enough from 3 (34%) to compensate. His .498 true shooting percentage was the lowest among all top 100 prospects this season. Fland rated better in the 2023 EYBL and has a high steal rate, but the scouting consensus placing him in the second round, influenced by his poor shooting numbers, seems reasonable based on the model`s inputs.

17. Khaman Maluach, C, Duke

Maluach was highly efficient offensively, shooting 75% on 2-point attempts and an impressive 77% from the free-throw line with a moderate usage rate (16%) for a big man who primarily finishes at the rim. However, he did not rate as strongly on the defensive end. Compared to the typical NBA-bound college center, Maluach`s 7% block rate was relatively low, and he recorded only eight steals all season. The model`s numbers may not fully capture his defensive versatility as a switchable big man, which likely contributes to his lottery projection.

18. Carter Bryant, F, Arizona

Primarily utilized as a 3-and-D player during his freshman year, Bryant demonstrated potential by hitting a promising 37% of his 3-point attempts and converting a high 59% of his less frequent 2-point shots. He also showed an impressive shot-blocking rate for a perimeter player. Among all non-post players in the top 100, only Nolan Traore has a higher projected block rate according to the model.

19. Walter Clayton Jr., PG, Florida

A standout performer during the NCAA tournament, Clayton`s rise in the top 100 moved him closer to his consistent ranking in the stats-only model. The model incorporated his strong sophomore season at Iona, where he was named MAAC Player of the Year, and his career 39% 3-point shooting. At 22, Clayton is older than many prospects ahead of him, but his production surpassed many younger players even when accounting for age.

20. Liam McNeeley, SF, UConn

McNeeley was not an efficient scorer at UConn, shooting 32% from three and 44% from two, but there are indicators his scoring could improve. He shot 37% from three in the 2023 EYBL and is an excellent free throw shooter at 87% in college.

21. Rasheer Fleming, PF, Saint Joseph`s

Fleming was already noted for his solid rebounding and shot blocking in statistical models before his scoring breakout in 2024-25. With increased usage, he achieved a career-high 39% from three, showcasing the stretch capability necessary for a power forward in the NBA.

22. Kam Jones, G, Marquette

Following the departure of Tyler Kolek, drafted in the second round, Jones transitioned to an on-ball role in 2024-25 after previously excelling off the ball. He more than doubled his assist rate to 5.9 per game while also increasing his scoring, earning All-America honors as a senior. Strong finishing (59% career on 2s) and high-volume 3-point shooting (9.0 career attempts per 40 minutes) suggest Jones could be an effective offensive creator off the bench in the NBA.

23. Koby Brea, SG, Kentucky

Rated as the top shooter in the draft, Brea offers clear value with his career 43% accuracy from beyond the arc and sufficient size (6-foot-6) to get his shot off against NBA defenders. A team that can effectively utilize his ability to shoot on the move could maximize his potential; he shot an effective 59% coming off screens last season, per Synergy Sports, but had limited opportunities in Kentucky`s offense.

24. Tahaad Pettiford, PG, Auburn

Coming off the bench for a deep Auburn team primarily starting seniors, Pettiford was the third-leading scorer as a freshman. He needs to improve his finishing around the basket, shooting just 49% on 2s as an undersized point guard prospect. However, his assist-to-turnover ratio near 2.0 was a positive sign for his playmaking.

25. Payton Sandfort, SF, Iowa

Sandfort`s offensive efficiency declined in his senior year, with career lows in both 2-point (49%) and 3-point (34%) shooting. However, he was exceptionally efficient as a junior and boasts a career 90% free throw percentage. A key question surrounding Sandfort is the extent to which his college success was influenced by Iowa`s offensive system. Iowa has produced four draft picks since 2021, but only Keegan Murray has become a consistent NBA rotation player.

26. Nolan Traore, PG, Saint Quentin (France)

After standing out at last year`s Nike Hoop Summit, Traore opted for professional play in his native France instead of college. He made an immediate impact in the French LNB playoffs and was initially ranked fifth in the top 100, though his play later declined. On the positive side, Traore has the best assist projection among all top 100 players, averaging 5.2 per game in just 22.8 minutes. However, his inefficient scoring (43% on 2s and 28% on 3s) caused him to fall out of the top 30 in the stats-only model.

27. Cedric Coward, SF, Washington State

Although Coward played only six games for Washington State after transferring and under a different coach, the success of former Washington State player and NBA Rookie of the Year contender Jaylen Wells, who came from the same transfer path, could boost Coward`s stock. At Eastern Washington, Coward was a highly efficient scorer, making a remarkable 72% of his 2-point attempts and 39% from three. He also projects as an above-average rebounder and passer for a small forward.

28. Will Riley, F/G, Illinois

Named Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year for his high-usage play (24%) off the bench as a freshman, Riley will need to improve his 3-point shooting to establish himself as an NBA wing. He shot 33% at Illinois and just 31% in the 2023 EYBL, though his free throw percentage (72% in college) offers some hope for shooting improvement.

29. Thomas Sorber, C Georgetown

Remarkably, no Georgetown player has been drafted since Otto Porter Jr. in 2013. Sorber is highly likely to end this drought if he remains in the draft, following a freshman season where he averaged 14.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, and 2.0 BPG. While these numbers are impressive, the standard for center production at the NCAA level is high. This high bar particularly impacts players like Derik Queen of Maryland, who ranks 10th in the top 100 but not in the top 30 projections, whereas Sorber was a notably more effective shot blocker.

30. Alex Karaban, F, UConn

After starting for UConn`s back-to-back national championship teams, Karaban returned while the rest of the starting five departed for the NBA. He didn`t make the offensive leap he might have aimed for, seeing his shooting percentages from both two (54%) and three (35%) slightly decrease in a larger role. However, Karaban did show improved playmaking, nearly doubling his assists to 2.8 per game, and also blocked shots at a career-high rate without Donovan Clingan protecting the rim.