2025 NBA Draft: Executive Insights on Cooper Flagg

Duke freshman Cooper Flagg has been consistently ranked as the top prospect in ESPN’s Top 100 rankings for the 2025 NBA draft class for over a year.

Despite starting the season as the projected No. 1 pick, his draft stock has only risen, especially during ACC play, and after turning 18 on December 21. Duke (31-3, 19-1 ACC) and Coach Jon Scheyer challenged Flagg to lead a young team, facing four top-25 opponents in the first month.

In 20 ACC regular-season games, Flagg averaged impressive stats: 21.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.4 assists. Named ACC player of the year and rookie of the year, and also an All-American, Flagg has demonstrated his skills as a passer, decision-maker, and shooter. He became the fourth Division I freshman in the last 25 seasons to achieve 20 points per game on 50% shooting from the field and 40% from three-point range in conference play, joining Kevin Durant (Texas), CJ McCollum (Lehigh), and Michael Beasley (Kansas State), according to ESPN Research.

Flagg sustained an ankle injury in the ACC tournament, causing him to miss Duke’s conference title run. However, he stated on Thursday that he expects to be fully recovered for the NCAA tournament, where Duke is a No. 1 seed and a Final Four contender. They are scheduled to play Mount St. Mary’s on Friday.

The gap between Flagg and other prospects in the 2025 draft has widened significantly in recent months, according to NBA general managers, executives, and scouts. Discussions among executives now center on his rookie expectations and comparisons to previous No. 1 picks.

Ten NBA executives, who remained anonymous to offer candid opinions, provided insights into Flagg’s appeal, areas for improvement, and expectations for the NCAA tournament. They also discussed the possibility of Flagg returning to Duke for his sophomore year after he addressed the question following Duke’s regular-season finale win against North Carolina.

Regardless of his future plans, Flagg has lived up to the high expectations set when he arrived in Durham, North Carolina, nine months prior.

One Western Conference executive stated that Flagg is as NBA-ready as any No. 1 pick in the last decade, if not more so.

Flagg’s Strengths and Comparisons to Top Picks

NBA executives agree that Flagg’s approach to the game, characterized by intense competitiveness and a relentless drive, is both unique and highly valuable for his future NBA team.

An Eastern Conference executive noted that Cooper Flagg’s best attribute is his ability to contribute to winning. They emphasized that all gathered information, including interviews with coaches, teammates, and trainers, consistently points to his winning mentality. This executive highlighted that such a quality is rare and highly desirable in an 18-year-old, especially for a team aiming to recover from a poor season.

Describing Flagg as a fierce competitor, the same executive added that he challenges teammates to match his energy and commitment to winning.

While Flagg has shown offensive growth this season, scouts emphasize his defensive impact as a defining aspect of his game. He is projected to defend multiple positions effectively, generate turnovers, and protect the rim with intensity and timing, largely due to his consistent effort.

A Western Conference scout mentioned that Flagg effectively cuts off angles and recovers quickly when beaten defensively. They praised his instincts around the rim and agility on the perimeter.

Early in the season, scouts considered Flagg among the top prospects in recent NBA drafts, although Victor Wembanyama, the No. 1 pick in 2023, remains in a category of his own.

One Western Conference scout commented that while team preferences vary, Flagg is comparable to any top prospect after Wembanyama.

Zion Williamson, another Duke player and the No. 1 pick in 2019, had similar pre-draft hype. Williamson’s unique strength and explosiveness set him apart stylistically, but Flagg’s performance has placed him in the same realm of expectations for the NBA.

Flagg’s raw statistics may not fully match Williamson’s historic freshman season, but his advanced metrics, such as a 41.1 net rating and a 15.4 box plus-minus, highlight his significant impact, especially defensively. His assist-to-turnover ratio is also better than Williamson and other recent No. 1 picks like Paolo Banchero, Cade Cunningham, and Anthony Edwards, indicating his playmaking ability.

His college performance, supported by both stats and observations, strengthens his draft profile, especially when scouts draw NBA star comparisons.

A Western Conference general manager stated that the best comparison scouts have made is to a prime Kawhi Leonard, noting similarities in playing style, two-way versatility, passing, and defensive capabilities across multiple positions.

While acknowledging differences in their games at the same age, the GM highlighted the comparison in terms of playing style and versatility. They noted Leonard’s initial defensive focus and the manufactured aspects of his offensive game, but emphasized the shared qualities of unwavering confidence, work ethic, physicality, and basketball IQ that contributed to Leonard’s MVP candidacy and championship leadership.

When Leonard was drafted 15th overall in 2011, he was seen primarily as a defensive specialist. The GM pointed out that while Flagg lacks Leonard’s hand size and wingspan, he excels in other areas.

According to the GM, Flagg is a better shooter, passer, and overall player at the same freshman stage.

Flagg’s Weaknesses

A primary concern among NBA executives is Flagg’s performance in critical, late-game situations.

An executive from a Western Conference playoff team questioned Flagg’s shot-creation ability in crucial moments, asking if he can consistently score when needed and lead the offense under pressure. They noted early season observations of Flagg’s mid-post game and perceived mechanical tendencies in his offensive moves.

An Eastern Conference GM mentioned Flagg’s turnovers in critical possessions during Duke’s loss to Kentucky in November, despite acknowledging his overall strengths. They stated that while Flagg has few holes in his game, his ability to close out tight games remains an area for growth.

Despite concerns about his ball-handling, finishing, and court awareness, executives generally agree that Flagg will continue to develop these skills.

A Western Conference executive, who praised Flagg’s feel for the game as elite, admitted that while ball-handling is not a major weakness anymore, it still requires improvement. They noted his improved pull-up shooting as a positive development.

Impact on Duke’s Championship Odds

Since Duke’s season opener, Flagg has strengthened evaluators’ confidence in his NBA potential. Scouts have highlighted his ability to handle pressure and lead the team to a successful season, enhancing the performance of teammates like freshmen Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach.

An Eastern Conference GM admitted to underestimating Duke’s potential at the start of the season, acknowledging Flagg’s significant impact in elevating the team to title contender status, despite a perceived weaker ACC conference.

Rarely do hyped prospects like Flagg meet both individual and team expectations. His conduct throughout a high-profile season has solidified his reputation alongside his on-court play.

An Eastern Conference scout noted the pressure often associated with highly-rated young players, but praised Flagg’s unselfishness amidst high productivity and attention.

While Flagg has proven much at the college level, scouts are eager to see his performance in the NCAA tournament spotlight. A deep tournament run would further validate his season and provide compelling matchups as he prepares for the NBA.

The same scout expressed curiosity about Flagg’s performance against stronger defensive teams and the adjustments he will make as tournament pressure increases.

Possibility of Returning to Duke

Despite no indication of his recent ankle injury influencing his decision, the possibility of Flagg returning for a sophomore season remains. In a preseason interview, Flagg expressed excitement about playing for Duke.

His statement in early March about “living in the present” and later comments about wanting to “come back next year” have fueled speculation. Duke fans have even chanted “one more year!” during home games.

One Western Conference executive believes Flagg’s family will not pressure him either way regarding his decision.

The executive expressed surprise if Flagg stayed, suggesting he might prefer to remain in a familiar environment before turning pro, noting his young age relative to his peers. Flagg reclassified and graduated high school early in spring 2024.

Historical examples exist of top NBA prospects returning to college, such as Marcus Smart, Joakim Noah, and Al Horford, who opted for another college year despite projected top-five draft positions in previous years.

After Duke’s season concludes, Flagg has until the NBA draft’s early-entry deadline on April 26 to decide his future. A surprising early exit from the tournament could potentially influence him to consider returning.

Executives believe Flagg’s NIL earnings might factor into his decision, reflecting the evolving financial landscape of college basketball.

However, ESPN’s Bobby Marks estimates that returning to Duke could cost Flagg between $75 million and $125 million in potential NBA salary due to delaying his service clock and eligibility for supermax contracts. This financial risk, coupled with the injury risks of another college season, makes returning a significant proposition.

An Eastern Conference scout stated they cannot recall a projected No. 1 pick ever choosing to return to college.